ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT pass made at 7:34 AM EDT. Still somewhat elongated and exposed.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

[supercane]

Looks like highest winds on that ASCAT pass around 25kt, not supportive of TS strength. I don't have any reason to believe that a new LLCC would form in the convection, as the current one appears well established.

[hurricaneCW]

This storm is going to have a major problem if the LLC continues to separate from the convection. The LLC is also going NW.

[AtlanticWind]

This storm is going to have a major problem if the LLC continues to separate from the convection. The LLC is also going NW.

I agree , this is being sheared from the east , may take some time for this to get going.

[plasticup]

True, but that sheer is expected to abate shortly

[hurricaneCW]

True, but that sheer is expected to abate shortly

That's what they said with Colin. I'm sure it'll get itself together but it may take a while. It's hard to go against all the models which show this becoming a strong hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

It's near a trough right now which explains the increased shear. Should be in it until tomorrow, when shear relaxes greatly and drops to almost nothing. I only see slight intensification in the next 24-36 hours (perhaps to 35 kt then holding there), then perhaps rapid deepening late tomorrow or on Tuesday.

[cpdaman]

boy if this storm never materializes.....then this board would be in utter dis-aray.......

and i mean that from purely a weather enthusiasts standpoint.....

shear forecasts are terrible ....

that flare up of convection from the vorticity (or low pressure to the NE of td 6) could not have helped this morning.

[CrazyC83]

boy if this storm never materializes.....then this board would be in utter dis-aray.......

and i mean that from purely a weather enthusiasts standpoint.....

The current forecast only brings it up to a weak tropical storm in the next 36 hours, which seems reasonable. However after 36 hours I think the forecast is really conservative.

[Javlin]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

??..I wonder that myself?the LLC is looking almost NNW?strange season.....

[wxman57]

I don't see any NNW motion of the center. It's just expanding outward a bit. But it's really being hit hard by low-level easterly shear.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NHC is leaning less towards a recurve, very interesting indeed:

SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1452.shtml?

[AtlanticWind]

WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.
FROM NHC

[cycloneye]

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see any NNW motion of the center. It's just expanding outward a bit. But it's really being hit hard by low-level easterly shear.

What do you expect will happen with the shear and the strengthening trend for the future.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the LLC is headed off to the NW potentially missing the next forecast point to the right again. I wonder if a new one is going to form underneath the convection.

??..I wonder that myself?the LLC is looking almost NNW?strange season.....

I would think that this short term NW motion would help this gain some latitude and thus increase the chances of a recurve.

[Vortex]

Very interesting per NHC at 11am.


BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

[gatorcane]

Very interesting per NHC at 11am.


BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

Yes it is, is it me or are they leaning towards it not recurving and hinting at it bending back west? The whole thing is reminding me alot of Frances (though not suggesting it will pull a Frances)...

Thoughts?

[Vortex]

Gator,

All morning I've thought Frances after looking at all the guidance. I think at some point it will bend back west with stout ridging..Question is how far in north?