ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[blp]

216hr Euro 958mb that is quite a system.

[superfly]

958mb on a global is sick

[KWT]

Not really superfly, the ECM has the resolution now to get down that low and probably yet lower I'd imagine given it can now create eyes on the model and inner features of a hurricane since the last upgrade.

Anyway models do suggest the risk is really increasing for SE Canada and Bermuda and if I was in the NE states I'd be getting more alert but its still very early days.

Its going to be possibly an exceptionally tight call because the upper torugh does get away by 144-168hrs but thats not before inducing some fairly strong northward motion. If this one were to get upto say 30N before the ridge develops then this one is going to struggle to get westwards too much, if its only at 20-25N then just about anything is possible with this one...

An exciting storm to track this one!

[ronjon]

Ok I'm gonna say it but the synoptics and latest Euro run is starting to look awfully similar to this 1992 August storm.

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 32.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2010 11.3N 32.4W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2010 12.3N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2010 13.5N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2010 14.6N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2010 15.5N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2010 16.9N 45.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2010 17.9N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2010 18.8N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2010 20.3N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2010 21.5N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2010 23.0N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2010 24.2N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2010 25.5N 60.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[superfly]

It definitely looks like timing will be everything. A bit faster and it's a fish. A bit slower and the high sets in north of it.

[vacanechaser]

wow, interesting change of events over night... the 0z gfs looked interesting to... how it danced around westward after moving north... i just dont know that i can but the fish storm yet....





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

The system is moving quite slowly and will be reacting with the environment as it intensifies so its going to be difficult to make an accurate upper air forecast for a few days. I don't give these current model runs much more weight than the early runs that showed a recurve.

Deeper systems do seem to amplify TUTTs sometimes, but they can also pump up ridges once they get stronger than cat 2. If the Tuesday model runs are more consistent maybe we can make a meaningful landfall prediction. We should start a loop that morphs the official track over time to see the trend.

[cpdaman]

216hr Euro 958mb that is quite a system.

is this a different system then td 6....are we sure this isn't the huge tropical wave coming off africa now.....216 hrs from now (next tuesday) and only in the above position doesn't seem right for td 6......esp. considering cycloneye's above post ..i.e the ukmet has td 6 at 60W by fri nite......and the other wave is behind it by a few days. also last nite euro 0z

0z euro has td 6 at 60w well east of florida on Sat nite......( so how do you get the same system in the same position 72 hrs later? is this a different euro depicted in BLP's map?

0z ecwmf below

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/gre ... l%200z.htm

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 221238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100822  1200   100823  0000   100823  1200   100824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  33.9W   13.0N  34.8W   14.5N  36.5W   16.6N  39.7W
BAMD    12.2N  33.9W   12.7N  35.9W   13.2N  38.2W   14.0N  40.5W
BAMM    12.2N  33.9W   12.9N  35.5W   13.7N  37.7W   14.9N  40.5W
LBAR    12.2N  33.9W   12.9N  36.2W   13.7N  39.3W   14.3N  42.7W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          53KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100824  1200   100825  1200   100826  1200   100827  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.6N  43.8W   20.8N  52.2W   19.7N  57.6W   20.0N  56.3W
BAMD    15.2N  42.9W   19.3N  47.1W   24.7N  50.4W   28.7N  52.2W
BAMM    16.4N  43.8W   19.0N  50.0W   20.9N  53.8W   24.0N  54.5W
LBAR    15.1N  46.1W   17.0N  52.2W   21.9N  54.7W   25.1N  56.6W
SHIP        62KTS          75KTS          77KTS          77KTS
DSHP        62KTS          75KTS          77KTS          77KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  33.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  11.2N LONM12 =  32.3W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  10.6N LONM24 =  31.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

06z GFDL

Makes it a major cane while it moves NW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF

Intensity to strong TS and tracks more WNW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[AtlanticWind]

NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Much more west than the GFS

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF run is interesting. The pattern at 240 hours is a trough in the Western half of the United States and a large ridge over the Eastern half. So looking at where the ECMWF has future Danielle, would cause a west or maybe even WSW movement as it gets under the ridge. That could put Florida at risk, though the run is so far out still.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082200!!/

[plasticup]

All of the models are showing the start of a recurve, but today's 06 GFS shows a strong ridge building in front of it at the end of at 7 day forecast period. Presumably that would push this west.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 06Z GFS run, three interesting things of note:

1) Future Danielle is an absolute monster, major cane in the Western Atlantic

2) Ridging is rapidly building in down the Eastern Seaboard and Northern Western Atlantic at the end of the run, which would shut the door on a recurve in a hurry.

3) TD 6 does not see any weakness imposed by the ULL within 72 hours, in fact it moves generally W to WNW.

[plasticup]

an absolute monster

The color scheme that I'm looking at only differentiates down to 980 mb, but shows a couple of gradient lines below that. Do you know what the actual number is?

[SouthFLTropics]

[quote="ronjon"]Ok I'm gonna say it but the synoptics and latest Euro run is starting to look awfully similar to this 1992 August storm.

I knew someone would point out how similar this could be to Andrew...Being a native Floridian I get a littly nervous when I see the models predicting a ridge building over a strong storm to my east. Gives me flashbacks...

[lester]

an absolute monster

The color scheme that I'm looking at only differentiates down to 980 mb, but shows a couple of gradient lines below that. Do you know what the actual number is?

GFS is horrible at intensity but the fact that it shows a 980 mb storm suggests that it would be an extremely deep system on that run.

[plasticup]

GFS is horrible at intensity but the fact that it shows a 980 mb storm suggests that it would be an extremely deep system on that run.

On the other end of the spectrum, HWRF shows an enormous tropical storm. Hundreds of miles across, but it never even reaches hurricane strength

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 06Z GFS run, three interesting things of note:

1) Future Danielle is an absolute monster, major cane in the Western Atlantic

2) Ridging is rapidly building in down the Eastern Seaboard and Northern Western Atlantic at the end of the run, which would shut the door on a recurve in a hurry.

3) TD 6 does not see any weakness imposed by the ULL within 72 hours, in fact it moves generally W to WNW.

At this point the NHC seems pretty confident on a fish track, even w/ the mentioning of the models becoming divergent. The NHC doesn't even hint that 95L will bend back west. It appears the CA trough will be strong enough and 95L will gain enough latitude that even if it gets left behind it will be unlikely to reach the EC.