ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[GeneratorPower]

Yep..Very close to the U.S east coast. Not looking at specifics. GFS is doing weird thing having this go north in the short term and longer term with a strong ridge over it.

Trend continues to miss the trough on the 00z run

My question is, perhaps the steering layer for the storm is something other than where the ridge is. Maybe there's a trough to pick up the system at a different height level.

[jaxfladude]

Well this is interesting!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

One giant heaping of "You shall not pass" through the ridge.

I hope for the sake of all that the weakness is such that all landmass and/or islands are missed comfortably. Just some nice swells at the beaches(be careful of the rip-currents as always)
Although, I worry that later on one system may just yet cause some big time troubles this season.

[Ivanhater]

It got left behind big time

[xcool22]

Steering Layer 700-850mb

[ROCK]

just got a wiff of a shift with that run....lets see what the EURO shows.....I believe the CMC is up next....

[South Texas Storms]

i have a feeling this is just the beginning of several more westward shifts in the models. a recurve looks much less likely right now than it did 24 hours ago...

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[floridasun78]

i been tell some of you other day tooooo early call system a fish because model change like 50 time from invest to td and hurr you see now we see stronger high day five

[supercane]

GFS runs past 24 hr, with most recent run not showing solid recurve but gaining latitude all the same. Bermuda should watch this:

[Florida1118]

As soon as I jump on the Recurve train I got to get back off...

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010082200&set=Tropical

Ivan look how far west this get....this looks more realistic in the short and med range....

[ROCK]

GFS runs past 24 hr, with most recent run not showing solid recurve but gaining latitude all the same. Bermuda should watch this:

huh Bermuda? GFS is plowing this into ridges like they are not even there.......

[Hurricaneman]

0z gfs has what look like a track similar to Felix1995

[Ivanhater]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010082200&set=Tropical

Ivan look how far west this get....this looks more realistic in the short and med range....

That's interesting.

The Canadian looks to go fishing again, but I'm not overly concerned with the surface reflection on the models this early. Ridge is coming off stronger and stronger off the East coast and the trough weaker and lifting up faster...

[South Texas Storms]

yeah rock i agree. i think the nogaps looks good so far.

[ROCK]

CMC site is down....nice... bandwidth exceeded....must be getting some serious hits....


your right it takes a weakness and shows a weaker EC high..... Earl though slips thru under Dee as it stays weak...

[Ivanhater]

CMC site is down....nice... bandwidth exceeded....must be getting some serious hits....

Sorry..I'll lay off

[Ivanhater]

00z UKMET at 144 hours shows a 991 mb storm near 25.6N/60.6W.

This is about 410 nm WSW of the 12z run.

[South Texas Storms]

nogaps has it missing the trough and heading west-wnw towards florida/bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

wow NOGAPS... watch out SE US

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical