ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

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#321 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:01 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:heading wnw through 42hrs..
its bouncing around and gaining lat then proceeds back to wnw......not buying it....


dont watch the little "L" the they always do that.. its hard to sort of not watch the L ...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#322 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:01 pm

The problem is, if the models get the short term motion wrong, it is going to have a long term effect.

I don't see it gaining that much latitude in 24 hours...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#323 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:02 pm

so should we just disregard this run?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#324 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:04 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The problem is, if the models get the short term motion wrong, it is going to have a long term effect.

I don't see it gaining that much latitude in 24 hours...


what do you mean by that much ? so far with the gfs this run its only been wnw ...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#325 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:04 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:so should we just disregard this run?


Not entirely, still watch for the trough and ridge progression.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#326 Postby Windtalker1 » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:06 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The problem is, if the models get the short term motion wrong, it is going to have a long term effect.

I don't see it gaining that much latitude in 24 hours...



I agree too Ivanhater especially since this is still only a TD. I also feel that if she doesn't make it to 15N by 45W we will have a new ball game on our hands.

My bad ment to say TD
Last edited by Windtalker1 on Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#327 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:06 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:so should we just disregard this run?


Not entirely, still watch for the trough and ridge progression.



yeah thats what I am looking at now since the run is gaining too much lat in the short term...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#328 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:07 pm

Pretty much due north in just 6 hours..which doesn't match up with the current motion

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#329 Postby Ikester » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:07 pm

Whoa, back the truck up! This is no invest, this is TD 6 on it's way to being Danielle soon!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#330 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:11 pm

90 hours

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#331 Postby jaxfladude » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:12 pm

A little phrase I use for models:
Something model this way comes!
Last edited by jaxfladude on Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#332 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:14 pm

102 hours

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#333 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:15 pm

it is a little south of the 18z run at 96 hours
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#334 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:15 pm

whats really comical about this run is that Earl plows into a even stronger ridge and starts a NW motion almost initially....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#335 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:19 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

didnt move very far did it..... :wink: in 18hrs....stuck like Chuck...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#336 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:21 pm

notice the high building in from the NE......going to push this baby back w or even sw....guessing though...GFS might decide to plow that ridge also... :lol:
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#337 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:21 pm

its about 24hours behind the previous run.... it may not get picked up..
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Re:

#338 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its about 24hours behind the previous run.... it may not get picked up..



I dont think it will.....Bahamas anyone.... Bueler?Bueler?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#339 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:24 pm

so i guess its looking less likely for a recurve. maybe youre right rock...maybe that euro run from a few days ago was right.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#340 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:24 pm

It looks to me like its geting picked up, maybe a bit slower
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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