ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[ROCK]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

Emmett, nice to see you around bro...we have not seen you in some time....makes sense.. this is August and a weakness that big screams against climo....IMO

[blp]

blp, the GFS ensemble NAO forecast is even more agressive with the positive NAO.

I just took a glance over it and that is interesting. It has definitely trended up today. The margin here is very tight in my opinion. Any delay in development or unexpected slowdown would put this in a blocking scenario.

[Dean4Storms]

This is going to be a close call either way. There are so many questions and ultimate answers out there that could make the difference in a big time fish or a US CONUS threat. I'm still not sold on a fish, everything the models have been showing with the strength of the trough and the development and speed of the system has not looked realistic too me thus far. Any slight slower forward speed or depth alone could cause this to get trapped under the ridge and I'm not even tackling the trough, if it is less than advertised we got a problem Houston!!

[Ivanhater]

This is going to be a close call either way. There are so many questions and ultimate answers out there that could make the difference in a big time fish or a US CONUS threat. I'm still not sold on a fish, everything the models have been showing with the strength of the trough and the development and speed of the system has not looked realistic too me thus far. Any slight slower forward speed or depth alone could cause this to get trapped under the ridge and I'm not even tackling the trough, if it is less than advertised we got a problem Houston!!

Possibly literally

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

Emmett, nice to see you around bro...we have not seen you in some time....makes sense.. this is August and a weakness that big screams against climo....IMO

Thanks Rock. I was hanging out back in 1985, but the 80's were really boring TC wise except for Hugo, so I decided to come back to the future.

[blp]

I agree, and we are talking about 7 days out with the runs on the re-curve, which has a good margin of error. 200-300 miles off could make a world of difference with this setup.

This is going to be a close call either way. There are so many questions and ultimate answers out there that could make the difference in a big time fish or a US CONUS threat. I'm still not sold on a fish, everything the models have been showing with the strength of the trough and the development and speed of the system has not looked realistic too me thus far. Any slight slower forward speed or depth alone could cause this to get trapped under the ridge and I'm not even tackling the trough, if it is less than advertised we got a problem Houston!!

[ROCK]

This is going to be a close call either way. There are so many questions and ultimate answers out there that could make the difference in a big time fish or a US CONUS threat. I'm still not sold on a fish, everything the models have been showing with the strength of the trough and the development and speed of the system has not looked realistic too me thus far. Any slight slower forward speed or depth alone could cause this to get trapped under the ridge and I'm not even tackling the trough, if it is less than advertised we got a problem Houston!!

Possibly literally

not funny...

[ROCK]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

Emmett, nice to see you around bro...we have not seen you in some time....makes sense.. this is August and a weakness that big screams against climo....IMO

Thanks Rock. I was hanging out back in 1985, but the 80's were really boring TC wise except for Hugo, so I decided to come back to the future.

nice...I remember your sense of humor as well....

[Ivanhater]

I mentioned this earlier. If you go back and analyze the models, they had this getting picked up by the 1st trough.

That won't happen. Now they have this getting picked up by the 2nd trough. Now we are seeing the 2nd one might not catch it either because some models are backing off on the strength of the 2nd trough or the storm may not be far enough north to meet it.

If it doesn't get the 2nd trough, well there is nothing else to catch it, just a building ridge. That is why the strength, speed, and how much latitude it acquires in the short term is crucial because then you have a big shift in the longer range with the models building a substantial ridge off the East coast.

[South Texas Storms]

0z gfs running...lets see if the westward trend continues.

[ROCK]

looks like it initialized correctly.....out 18 hrs..heading west to wnw...

[Aric Dunn]

it is about 100 miles slower.. this run...

[Ivanhater]

looks like it initialized correctly.....out 18 hrs..heading west to wnw...

Almost moves it due north and NNW from 0 hours to 30 hours with a stout ridge to the north

[ROCK]

seems slower? out 30 hrs....

[ROCK]

looks like it initialized correctly.....out 18 hrs..heading west to wnw...

Almost moves it due north and NNW from 0 hours to 30 hours with a stout ridge to the north

yep its crap.....

[ROCK]

also doesnt blow it up either....though its hard to gauge intensity....gaining that type of lat at that intensity aint going to happen....

[Vortex]

by tuesday we should have danielle and earl about 2 days apart..

[ROCK]

42hrs still gaining lat at 1005MB....its 1008mb now.....right into a 1021 high.....<cough> BS.....

[Aric Dunn]

heading wnw through 42hrs..

[ROCK]

heading wnw through 42hrs..

its bouncing around and gaining lat then proceeds back to wnw......not buying it....