ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Riptide]

Here is my new analog for this system.

1903 Hurricane 4

Adjust for intensity.

[Ivanhater]

Left behind on both troughs and got stuck. Remember in the earlier runs the 1st trough was getting it then we saw shifts further west only for a 2nd trough to get it.

Now this run shows both missing it. You can imagine if we get slower movement and less latitude gain in the short term, we have big shifts in the long range..Certainty for recurve knocked down again

BTW, the Euro ensemble agrees with this as well.

[hurricaneCW]

Basically it misses the weakness and the ridging does build in but the strong and large storm is far enough north to tug at the weakness left over and pull itself northward, though it is further west than the past few runs, definitely a Bermuda threat with this scenario and an eventual Canadian threat as well although that would probably be an extratropical system by then.

If the storm doesn't go as far north prior to what the gfs shows up to 72 hrs or so, then it would head much further west when the high builds in because it wouldn't reach far enough to interact with the weakness. It's a long shot at this point but it is something to look out for. I'm not sure what would happen with the twin behind it. It could get sheared if future Danielle is too close to it, if the 2nd system is far enough apart, maybe it would take a different track. Very uncertain beyond 3-4 Days.

[KWT]

Still recurves but whats interesting Ivanhater is the system is still strong, so IMO its a more plauseable solution...

Gets to 65W, I think thats not a bad call myself, I've been thinking of between 60-70W for a few days and a recurve...the GFS shows the sort of solution I personally expect.

Its a logical solution because it'd be rather uncommon for the first trough to lift the system out on the first bite of the cherry...also note the BIG pattern change by 240hrs.

[Ivanhater]

Still recurves but whats interesting Ivanhater is the system is still strong, so IMO its a more plauseable solution...

Gets to 65W, I think thats not a bad call myself, I've been thinking of between 60-70W for a few days and a recurve...the GFS shows the sort of solution I personally expect.

Its a logical solution because it'd be rather uncommon for the first trough to lift the system out on the first bite of the cherry...also note the BIG pattern change by 240hrs.

Here is my problem KWT.

The models (using the GFS as an example) have been consistent showing recurve for the wrong reasons.

1st it was the first trough recurving it. That's not happening.

Then it was the 2nd one that sealed the deal. Now we are seeing that may not happen.

The problem now is, after the 2nd we have ridging as far as the eyes can see. So the models have been consistent for the wrong reason. A U.S threat has gone up in my book.

The trend has been missing the troughs.

[hurricaneCW]

I hope the long range of the gfs is incorrect because it really cranks the ridging. I know using the 14-15 days gfs is pointless but it just shows what could potentially happen.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[srainhoutx]

I will say that it is trends we should be watching right now. Another point is TD 6 may take some time to consolidate. Throw in a favorable MJO pulse to add to the mix and the 'concern' factor goes up a notch or two. I will continue watching as nothing is cast in stone tonight IMO.

[KWT]

Oh yeah your right Ivanhater, but what really does worry me a little is the way the weak upper high forms over E.Canada, if that were to happen then thats just the sort of set-up that would take a system up towards the NE states and SE Canada.

Still could once again be an outlier, but the ECM ensembles do look little interesting...

I'd certainly be worried for anything that comes out the CV region if the pattern after 240hrs occured...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Are there any models having it come up the East Coast?

[srainhoutx]

Are there any models having it come up the East Coast?

Some ensemble members have suggested a threat further W.

[Ivanhater]

That is mighty close the NE us coast.. I smell a shift coming..

[ROCK]

Still recurves but whats interesting Ivanhater is the system is still strong, so IMO its a more plauseable solution...

Gets to 65W, I think thats not a bad call myself, I've been thinking of between 60-70W for a few days and a recurve...the GFS shows the sort of solution I personally expect.

Its a logical solution because it'd be rather uncommon for the first trough to lift the system out on the first bite of the cherry...also note the BIG pattern change by 240hrs.

Here is my problem KWT.

The models (using the GFS as an example) have been consistent showing recurve for the wrong reasons.

1st it was the first trough recurving it. That's not happening.

Then it was the 2nd one that sealed the deal. Now we are seeing that may not happen.

The problem now is, after the 2nd we have ridging as far as the eyes can see. So the models have been consistent for the wrong reason. A U.S threat has gone up in my book.

The trend has been missing the troughs.

could not has said it better myself, IVAN....any delay in develop would mean further west...the ECM was out to lunch the last run with initialization, then the CMC has one vortex eat another.....

all one needs to look at is the current conditions. Look how the drier air to the north is pushing out in front of TD6....bet my last dollar it keeps it in check longer than some of these models are showing....

[KWT]

I doubt it rock, this one had a very large looking broad circulation, that dry air will stay shielded away, though a large system will take a little while to get going though so its swings and roundabouts!

That being said remember when I said the one thing that would change my mind on recurvature would be a strong E.Candian upper High developing...and the models are slowly trending that way...

PS the ECM was *perfect* with where it started...got it spot on if you've seen the high resolution map, someone from easternuswx posted a little zoomed in picture which showed the ECM had a perfect starting point.

[Ivanhater]

Yep ROCK. The Euro ensemble is like night and day to the operational run. The purple in the image represents to mean of the ensembles. Almost all of them are way further South and west of the operational. Notice quite a few of them have them getting under the ridge and having a very different track, if that were the case...

[KWT]

Track in the 96hrs is going to be very key, if we see the system trend left of the forecast then the threat down the line will increase.

If this one gets to say 27-30N before 60W then a recurve is pretty much certain unless a super upper high develops over Canada.

Two different solutions from the ECM ensembles by the way, some go N at 60W, the other go WNW/NW in general close to Bermuda and probably to a close call with the NE states...

[Ivanhater]

Track in the 96hrs is going to be very key, if we see the system trend left of the forecast then the threat down the line will increase.

If this one gets to say 27-30N before 60W then a recurve is pretty much certain unless a super upper high develops over Canada.

Two different solutions from the ECM ensembles by the way, some go N at 60W, the other go WNW/NW in general close to Bermuda and probably to a close call with the NE states...

Could easily get a strong Cat 3 out of this, maybe even a Cat 4. NHC is being just a little conservative with the intensity forecast. I do think it might track a bit left of the NHC track at first, but it will very likely stay well NE of the Caribbean and even east of Bermuda. Not a 100% guarantee of recurvature east of 60W, though, maybe 90%. There's the question of timing of the ridge off the East U.S. Coast building eastward. If the storm moves more slowly and the ridge builds east faster, then it could block the recurve.

[Ivanhater]

Here is a better image of the Euro Ensemble...all of them are further west than the operational

You can see the split in the camps with some of them getting under that ridge...expect some shifts and flopping

[xcool22]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


HWRF 18z

[ronjon]

I hope the long range of the gfs is incorrect because it really cranks the ridging. I know using the 14-15 days gfs is pointless but it just shows what could potentially happen.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Yeah, the pattern reminds me alot of early September 2004. Strong ridging across the atlantic with the jet stream way up in Canada. If this pattern takes place, there'll be some caribbean, GOM, or east coast threats at some point from CV storms.

[KWT]

Things have just got interesting...

The HWRF shows exactly what could happen if the system does indeed track far enough west though thats still a long way from proving what will happen.

But...my mind is now clear of any certainty of recurving yet again...KWT is now totally open minded