ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a large and intense hurricane. I think as HurricaneCW says it could be a Category 5. I think a Category 3-4 more likely.

[DanKellFla]

FISH STORM!!!! phew. Lots of potential out there. This one could carry much of the ACE for this year.

[KWT]

I'd be a little surprised if it got category-5, those are very rare in the central Atlantic, seems like once in a decade type event if not longer....

Still certainly a major looks a good bet providing it doesn't stay too elongated like it currently is.

Also note the heat content gets a fair bit higher if this one can get a little bit west of the NHC forecast.

[pricetag56]

Looks to be a large and intense hurricane. I think as HurricaneCW says it could be a Category 5. I think a Category 3-4 more likely.

depends on upper levels and water temps. if those are ripe it could go through RI

[HURAKAN]

Pre-Danielle appears to be a 25+ ACE producer

[KWT]

FISH STORM!!!! phew. Lots of potential out there. This one could carry much of the ACE for this year.

I think we may see several more of these types of systems, La Ninas do tend to be favourable for CV seasons usually around this time, thats why I think we will get a technical hyperactive season.

[cycloneye]

we will get a technical hyperactive season.

It doesn't matter if the season ends with for example 9 named systems, if the majority of those get big ACE units, that is what is needed to qualify for a hyperactive season. In other words, the number of named systems dosen't matter at all.

[terrapintransit]

I am just amazed at the size of this thing already...

[rockyman]

I'd be a little surprised if it got category-5, those are very rare in the central Atlantic, seems like once in a decade type event if not longer....

Still certainly a major looks a good bet providing it doesn't stay too elongated like it currently is.

Also note the heat content gets a fair bit higher if this one can get a little bit west of the NHC forecast.

Tracks of all confirmed Cat 5 Atlantic basin hurricanes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... hurricanes

[cpdaman]

This is going to be a very large and powerful hurricane. east coast will regardless feel impacts from this

First welcome to storm2k. I agree and I may add the NE Caribbean and Bermuda will also have a big swell event from this.

I will be positoned beautifully at ruggles (big wave surfspot overlooking the new port mansions) with a bevvy of others....hurricane bill sent 20 foot waves to Maine last year.....this looks to send 15 foot plus waves to Newport Rhode island in a beautiful SE bomb SWELL which should hit the S. coast of New England by friday then build rapidly over the weekend. (so long as it tracks NW from 45W to 55W or so)... pics will be posted........hopefully this stays a fish.

[cycloneye]

The Colorado State University team of Dr Klotzbach / Dr William Gray made their second two week forecast from the 18th to the 31rst that has above average ACE (19 units or more) They solidly relied on the models developing this system to rack up the ACE numbers and IMO they will not bust.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 8_2010.pdf

[KWT]

Thanks Rockyman, just a couple of hurricanes made cat 5 north of 20 and east of 60W but doesn't mean it can be totally ruled out...

I'm betting similar to Crazy said earlier, 115-125kts looks a decent possible range IMO.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, lets have a mini poll with the question, How strong will this system will get?

I will go with I.

A-Tropical Storm, 60 mph
B-Tropical Storm,70 mph
C-Cat 1,75 mph
D-Cat 1,85 mph
E-Cat 2,95 mph
F-Cat 2,105 mph
G-Cat 3 115 mph
H-Cat 3,125 mph
I-Cat 4, 135 mph
J-Cat 4-145 mph
K-Cat 5-156 mph+
L-Stays as TD Six

[lester]

J- Cat 4 - 135 mph

though I wouldn't be shocked if it gets stronger than that

[Ivanhater]

K

[Ivanhater]

Pretty devoid of any convection over the center, but banding looks great

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

[breaking wind]

This one should be fun to watch, hopefully we will see that stadium effect, love those shots. Wish it would at least scare the east coast but I'm not complaining, I'll take a fish storm at this point. I thought Bonnie would be the bad one this year and I could make an argument this should be bonnie but who cares, the season is finally starting.

[ROCK]

M- none of the above...

[KWT]

Gosh thats a tough one Cycloneye...I haven't a clue just how strong it'll get to be honest, much depends on the track probably which isn't quite clear cut anymore again lol!

I'd plump for 135mph for now though...but the global models aren't actuslly too keen bar the GFS...

[SoupBone]

G-Cat 3 115 mph