ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

The ACE units will go up bigtime with this system, maybe getting around 20-25.

Yeah it sure will, this system could put in even morfe then that if it does really strengthen, if it gets upto a major hurricane strength which is looking pretty possible, then 30-40 IMO is more probable but we will see!

Despite good model agreement I'm not totally sold it recurves before 60W though its hard to argue against such strong model consensus.

[CrazyC83]

I agree the NHC is conservative, my guess is that Danielle peaks at 125 kt.

[hurricaneCW]

I still say 170 mph Cat 5. Even though it will recurve, the storm will likely be large and powerful enough to generate some strong swells and increase the rip current threat along the east coast, so that's always a concern as we near the labor day weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Could easily get a strong Cat 3 out of this, maybe even a Cat 4. NHC is being just a little conservative with the intensity forecast. I do think it might track a bit left of the NHC track at first, but it will very likely stay well NE of the Caribbean and even east of Bermuda. Not a 100% guarantee of recurvature east of 60W, though, maybe 90%. There's the question of timing of the ridge off the East U.S. Coast building eastward. If the storm moves more slowly and the ridge builds east faster, then it could block the recurve.

Agreed. The timing in all the models is still very close and would not take much to see a change in the track..

[KWT]

I still say 170 mph Cat 5. Even though it will recurve, the storm will likely be large and powerful enough to generate some strong swells and increase the rip current threat along the east coast, so that's always a concern as we near the labor day weekend.

Wow that'd be an excellent storm to have wouldn't it, when it comes to strength you can't ever totally rule out anything though its probably a little unlikely I suppose!
Still no reason as Wxman57 said it can't really go gangbusters and if it does that trough will scoop it up no trouble.

ps, on the model map though there is an interesting map of past systems that have developed near this region in August...then again the set-up aloft out there is not an August type set-up IMO, more like mid September.

[guyclaude08]

i would like to know why every storms that form do a recurve thing ??? could TD6 go westward and not recurve ??? and for last, can we see more storms in september with no recurving going on ???? thank you

[dixiebreeze]

21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic

[Ivanhater]

This is one of those that will most likely be a beauty on satellite, unlike the crappy little storms of late. Not likely, but there is that possibility the recurvature is blocked.

The real threats this season will be those forming closer to home, the bread and butter this season IMO is the NW Caribbean. Could see a nasty one this year in that area.

[Ivanhater]

[Typhoon_Willie]

That system is looking good there Ivanhater.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of all August storms passing within 65nm of 11N/32.1W. About half or a bit more recurve. Some don't. Some big ones don't, like Donna, Dora and Frederic. I don't see anything at the moment to suggest it'll move into the Caribbean.



As we look past August into September, almost all recurve from the current position of TD Six:

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[pricetag56]

This is going to be a very large and powerful hurricane. east coast will regardless feel impacts from this

[cycloneye]

This is going to be a very large and powerful hurricane. east coast will regardless feel impacts from this

First welcome to storm2k. I agree and I may add the NE Caribbean and Bermuda will also have a big swell event from this.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[KWT]

Probably best to look at the September maps really IMO Wxman57 since the pattern is far closer to a September pattern then a August pattern what with all the strong troughing going on.

I just can't see this not being a recurve to be honest!

Looking good though for sure, just needs a little bit more deep convection perhaps near the center but wrapping nicely.

[pricetag56]

The quiet lull across the globe looks like its starting to end. I hope things dont really pick up on this side cuz with the conditions if the air continues to unstabalize it could mean a surge of storms.

[KWT]

That system is looking good there Ivanhater.

Yeah to be honest it just has that look of a strengthening system to me, it looks pretty good with it wrapping itself together!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This will easily be a category 3-4 hurricane out over the waters in a few
days...lots
of fuel and favorable conditions

[HURAKAN]

OHC