ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

Hmmm ok something that is a little worrying now to me, the models were rather too quick to shot this westwards and if this system does struggle for the next 24-48hrs with its multiple circulations it may not move very far...and if that happens obviously it gives it time...

[cycloneye]

it gives it time...

The oportunity for a trough to lift northward and a ridge to establish firmly if it continues to move slowly.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ColinDelia]

850 mb vorticity. 1,2,3...

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see how easily it manages to pull it all together, its a broad mess for now though its not having any problem with regards developing circulations!

[pepeavilenho]

I don't like this situation of those two mesovortex.....I have to agree with KWT....

BUT, GFS has been very consistent with its track, more than euro....Maybe a pont in favour to be a fishy system, but, who knows!

[Ivanhater]

If we took the GFS a couple days ago, we would already have Danielle by now. Still looks like it will be a couple days away, which is why I'm not sold on the fish solution.

[Vortex]

I've not been able to analyze the 12z ECM...Were there any major differences from the 00z run?

[pepeavilenho]

[Ivanhater]

I've not been able to analyze the 12z ECM...Were there any major differences from the 00z run?

Lol about a 180 turn

Ridging as far as the eye can see.

[KWT]

If we took the GFS a couple days ago, we would already have Danielle by now. Still looks like it will be a couple days away, which is why I'm not sold on the fish solution.

I think the Vort that developed to the east of 95L today has slowed it right down but that system is now weakening and about to throw some storms towards the CV Islands. 95L's central Vort still looks like its heading westwards, lets see how the forecast from the PREDICT team goes...they call for it to be at 15N by 60hrs.

I suspect tonight we go cherry and to 60% but we will see!

[StormClouds63]

Looks like a 3 amigos scenario ... unusual for sure. Consolidation will take time. Maybe Danielle by Monday. Nothing for certain in 2010, but this may be the closest we've had to a sure thing. Re-curve still probable if this does indeed develop into a named system.

[KWT]

If you take a look at the loop above and the big picture you can see the middle vortex is just starting to become the dominant one, I suspect thing will continue to slowly organise over the next 24hrs.

[sunnyday]

Do I understand correctly that there needs to be a "cooling off of the US continent" before a sizeable hurricane can form and come toward the US? Joe Bastardi explained today that he feels that there will be a lot of storms when that happens.

[dixiebreeze]

If you take a look at the loop above and the big picture you can see the middle vortex is just starting to become the dominant one, I suspect thing will continue to slowly organise over the next 24hrs.

Yep. 20/1745 UTC 10.9N 26.0W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

[MiamiHurricanes10]

"The 12z ECMWF ensembles show the major disagreements within the members, illustrated by the pink colors, which has the storm anywhere from Miami to Bermuda or further east by Day 10. The potential for nearly anything is there at this point, and again, neither recurvature nor landfall somewhere can be ruled out. A wary eye should be kept on this storm by the folks on the eastern seaboard just in case."

[xcool22]

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[KWT]

Ohhhh we have a TCFA. I personally suspect development will happen on the backend of that tiemframe but we will see...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Ohhhh we have a TCFA. I personally suspect development will happen on the backend of that tiemframe but we will see...

Link?

[KWT]

Ah actually scrap that I misread the image above lol, sorry!