What is the future of this season?

[KWT]

>>The thing is it's like this (quiet) all over the tropics (world wide)and not just the Atlantic right now. It's not normal folks.

What's not normal? Do you realize that over 95% of your last 250 posts were promoting a slack-season or lack of activity?

Actually Steve Stormcenter is right, the global Tropics are *exceptionally slow* right now, 1998 started ramping up at this point globally, thus far other then a possible Atlantic system there really isn't a lot out there globally that looks like its going to get going in the next 10 days.

We are globally in uncharted water...only 1977 is comparable IMO...

[Steve]

>>Actually Steve Stormcenter is right, the global Tropics are *exceptionally slow* right now, 1998 started ramping up at this point globally, thus far other then a possible Atlantic system there really isn't a lot out there globally that looks like its going to get going in the next 10 days.

I'm not disagreeing at all. That's never been my deal. I'm here to learn and understand and give whatever insights I might have. But when every thread (even on the active storms board) is peppered with the same stuff, you have to figure even the posters would get tired of repeating themselves. I mean 5 or 10 times is fine. We get the point. But if that's all someone's got to offer, maybe they should find something else to talk about? JMO and nothing personal to anyone. It's just annoying to have to trip over the endless barrage of the same post. And I realize that some of the doomsdayers get aggravated for different reasons. That's on them. My thing is that it's really no different from statecasting or model wars. Give it a rest and contribute something of value sometimes. I think we can all see what is and what isn't going on at a basic level. And I'm not looking to be right - or to have three or four hundred posts I can point to at the end of the season where I can come back and say "I told you so." 3 or 4 would have been sufficient. Do you disagree with that KWT?

[vbhoutex]

A "bit" too quiet is an understatement.
It is down right scary.

Of course there are factors we still don't understand. That isn't and shouldn't be part of the debate. Whether we ended up with 8 storms, 16 storms or 24 storms this season wouldn't change that knowledge much at all. Our lack of knowledge is not only known it is quantifiable. It is well detailed in the CSU papers. I would argue that one season won't teach us much of anything in that regard. You need many more data points than that. But how about over more than a century?

CSU's method explains 51% of the variance from 1900-2009. You get the same 51% if you break it down into two periods from 1900-1948 and from 1949-2009. So it is true there are still factors we don't understand. Over more than a century of records half of the variance in the number of tropical storms is explained by their method.

That doesn't mean that they are basin-wide factors like ocean temps, sea level pressures, the Southern Oscillation and so on. Then again they might be. But it also might be that there are small, random perturbations that will never be explained (or maybe they are small perturbations that will be explained. who really knows?) I imagine it is some combination.

For now CSU's method explains about half the variance in the number of named storms in a season. On August 1 their method can explain whether the rest of the season is going to be above average or below average 84% of the time. So it will be wrong in that regard 1 out of 6 seasons. There's still a lot to learn. This is just the pioneer stage.

I don't think 110 years of data is a large enough sampling considering Earth is approx. 4.5 Billion years old. There is a lot we still don't know yet and it would be incredibly naive and arrogant to think we do (this is not directed at you...in general). We should learn things from each season; especially one that bucks many forecasts. I see this season heating up soon, but you can't deny that right now (globally) it's a bit too quiet.

Stormcenter, I am curious as to why you say it is scary. Is that just a figure of speech or are you anticipating something? Is it scary because we are realizing how much we really don't know about the tropics and weather in general? Like I said, just curious.
I have to agree that worldwide the tropics are eerily quiet, but they aren't dead. We have two WP invests and now NHC is mentioning the wave(s) coming off of Africa. Of course closer to "home" we have the mess in the Caribbean and td5 remnants still hanging over the South. All in all though it is wierd, at least to me, for this time of year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 2009-2010 period is the quietest since 97/first part of 98...perhaps later this month it may get active. But I will admit, all my predictions for 20+ storms is going to likely get
me some big time crow.


Perhaps the record global heat in many nations is someone diminishing temperature gradients that
contribute to hurricane formation??? I'm not an expert, so my statement is a guess.

Still in 98, most storms formed after august 20th IIRC.


But I am HAPPY that this year has been inactive thusfar. It's good to have quiet.

[vbhoutex]

The 2009-2010 period is the quietest since 97/first part of 98...perhaps later this month it may get active. But I will admit, all my predictions for 20+ storms is going to likely get
me some big time crow.

Don't worry there may be quite a few people at the table with you, me included. I hope they have several different choices for sauces and how to fix it!!!

[Stormcenter]

vbhoutex it was just a figure of speech but eventually we all know like with a boiling pot of water the lid is going to eventually come off at sometime and somewhere this season. We more then likely are going to see a major storm or storms develop. It just that time of season. We may not the see the numbers most anticipated but something will form other than a Bonnie type system. Let's just hope it's does not end up close to home for anyone. Now if this doesn't pan out and the season remains quiet then I think we all should throw out this seasonal predictions stuff out the window and forget about it because we obviously all don't have a clue of what to expect each season. IMO



[quote="

[blp]

It seems like either the switch is broken on the CFS or we are in for the year of the recurve. Now it has reached October 2nd and no end to the weakness in sight. It continues to forecast a strong weakness around 60W. I don't look at the model for systems but the pattern. So far it has been on the money let's see if it continues to verify....

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201007090000&VAR=pslv&HH=396&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[lonelymike]

It seems like either the switch is broken on the CFS or we are in for the year of the recurve. Now it has reached October 2nd and no end to the weakness in sight. It continues to forecast a strong weakness around 60W. I don't look at the model for systems but the pattern. So far it has been on the money let's see if it continues to verify....

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201007090000&VAR=pslv&HH=396&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

No complaints in the states or islands I'm sure if the switch stays broken for another six weeks:)

[Ptarmigan]

Actually Steve Stormcenter is right, the global Tropics are *exceptionally slow* right now, 1998 started ramping up at this point globally, thus far other then a possible Atlantic system there really isn't a lot out there globally that looks like its going to get going in the next 10 days.

We are globally in uncharted water...only 1977 is comparable IMO...

1977 was during the cooler phase for the Atlantic. 1977 came off a weak El Nino and went back to weak El Nino. Also, the monsoon in Asia was rather on the weak side.

[blp]

The only major event effecting the globe as a whole is the lower solar activity and that might be contributing to this, but I have always been a little skeptical of how major a role it plays but right now nobody has a clear answer. If it keeps up though you can bet that it will be an interesting topic of post analysis in the years ahead.

Actually Steve Stormcenter is right, the global Tropics are *exceptionally slow* right now, 1998 started ramping up at this point globally, thus far other then a possible Atlantic system there really isn't a lot out there globally that looks like its going to get going in the next 10 days.

We are globally in uncharted water...only 1977 is comparable IMO...

1977 was during the cooler phase for the Atlantic. 1977 came off a weak El Nino and went back to weak El Nino. Also, the monsoon in Asia was rather on the weak side.

[StormClouds63]

1977 had category 5 Anita in the south-central GOM w/landfall in northern Mexico. In Louisiana, we had a very weak cat 1 storm, Babe. At this point, it's a stretch to even compare 2010 with 1977.

From 2005 to 1977 ... how the expectations for the 2010 season have tumbled.

[StormClouds63]

vbhoutex it was just a figure of speech but eventually we all know like with a boiling pot of water the lid is going to eventually come off at sometime and somewhere this season. We more then likely are going to see a major storm or storms develop. It just that time of season. We may not the see the numbers most anticipated but something will form other than a Bonnie type system. Let's just hope it's does not end up close to home for anyone. Now if this doesn't pan out and the season remains quiet then I think we all should throw out this seasonal predictions stuff out the window and forget about it because we obviously all don't have a clue of what to expect each season. IMO



[quote="

Poor seasonal forecasts have only negative consequences. Most of the public just wants to know if a hurricane will threaten their part of the coast. As we know, this capability is beyond the science as it now exists. That's why I concur with the idea of eliminating these forecasts ...

I do give credit to that private weather firm based in Houston ... they went totally against the trend back in June and predicted only 8 total named storms. Obviously, they picked up on some negative atmospheric condition that none of the other agencies predicted.

[Steve]

Whose expectations? Some chumps on an internet message board who are vying to be King Weenie or the real experts? I don't have any expectations. I'm just watching and observing. But I think I'm going to respect the opinions of the kings of this *** (Klotzbach, NOAA, Bastardi) over posters who are either stuck in Freud's anal stage needing a fix of immediate gratification or attention.

Hey, it's August 19, 2010. (cr)Accuweather (making money off of all of this) states tonight, "The heart of hurricane season is about to begin, and we have a significant tropical system likely to form over the Atlantic through early next week. AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is still predicting this to be a major impact season for the U.S. Of the 18 to 21 named storms Bastardi is forecasting, he expects eight of them to impact the U.S. Of those eight, he is predicting five or six to be hurricanes and two of them to be major hurricanes. While the season has been fairly quiet so far, Bastardi expects a "frenzy of activity the rest of the way."
In fact, the next hurricane of the season could develop by early next week. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verde Islands.
Computer models still show this feature evolving into a significant tropical system as it heads westward across the Atlantic this weekend into the first half of next week. The next name on the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season list is Danielle.

I'd be happy to see another 1000 posts from the IGOTTABERIGHT IGOTTABERIGHT IGOTTABERIGHT IWINIWINIWINIWINIWIN posters claiming they are as clueless as a kindergartner or the "Experts" coming in here telling us why they were wrong. But not in the middle of the game. Give that ******* **** a rest for once. And it would be really cool if lay posters would stop embarrassing the forum. Think about it. I always thought we were better than that.

[Ptarmigan]

1977 had category 5 Anita in the south-central GOM w/landfall in northern Mexico. In Louisiana, we had a very weak cat 1 storm, Babe. At this point, it's a stretch to even compare 2010 with 1977.

From 2005 to 1977 ... how the expectations for the 2010 season have tumbled.

1977 was interesting because it snowed in Miami and the winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 were considerably cooler that time.

[ConvergenceZone]

I personally think that Joe Bastardi is off his rocker...I've followed him for enough years to know that he likes going "extreme", but I think that the fact that he's still predicting 18 to 21 storms at this point is way too extreme...

You know how any storms you would need to get a month the rest of the way to come up with that number?? Not only would September need to be super hyperactive, but so would October and November.....

I know Joe does this for a living, but as a listener of him, I can still be a critic and request him to show me all the evidence....... His numbers are off the charts considering we only have 4 named storms right now, I just can't see 18 to 21 storms for the year......

[Steve]

>>I personally think that Joe Bastardi is off his rocker...I've followed him for enough years to know that he likes going "extreme", but I think that the fact that he's still predicting 18 to 21 storms at this point is way too extreme...

It's borderline insane IMHO. But it's great too because he's putting his credibility on the line. You'd think, "I can envision another 8 or 9 named storms this season" might be reasonable. Someone is going to fall pretty hard - either those pining or longing for e-credibility or seasonal forecasters who well might lose a ton of real credibility.

>>You know how any storms you would need to get a month the rest of the way to come up with that number?? Not only would September need to be super hyperactive, but so would October and November.....

Yeah, it's simple math. You need an average of 5 in every 30 day period between now and November 20th. It doesn't seem likely, but it's not that much of an anomaly to say it's out of the realm of possibility. It definitely has "stretch" written all over it. At the same time, if we get 15 and see 4 hurricane impacts (2 Cat 3's+), then his detractors slink back under their rocks for another few months. It doesn't matter to me either way. I just understand the virtues of patience. And come November 30th, if we're at I, J or K, I'll be laughing too. Nelson Muntz style.

>>I know Joe does this for a living, but as a listener of him, I can still be a critic and request him to show me all the evidence....... His numbers are off the charts considering we only have 4 named storms right now, I just can't see 18 to 21 storms for the year......

I thought we only had 3? I can't see it either, but I also (and I realize it's not you as much as it is several other posters) don't have the need to e-pimp myself. Because in the end, it doesn't matter what you, me or anyone else says. What matters is what happens. I'm sure you'd agree with me on that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Steve, you are right, I don't know why I typed '4', when I know we only had 'a', 'b', and 'c' LOL...
Too much to drink I guess.....

[cycloneye]

Interesting articule about what to expect from now foward.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/19/v ... on-to.html

[KWT]

Its not just a stretch, only 2005 from now on would be able to meet the numbers that are needed and clearly 2005 was far more condusive overall then this season...even 1969 numbers would fall short of the 18-21NS that have been suggested.

Things are getting more condusive out there but they are still not IMO condusive for big numbers of storms.

Now I still think we get to *hyperactive*. What is needed for that...two out of three main things that are watched (NS, H and MH) are above the long term average and the ACE is something like 150-160...would only take 2-3 large major CV hurricanes that last a while and a few other hurricanes that form east of say 50-60W and the odd Caribbean system to push us close to that range...

[Frank2]

I've held off posting to this topic, but did want to say that in the minutes before learning about 9/11, I was heard complaining about the ants on my desk (in other words I was clueless when it came to knowing what was about to happen), so the same is true here - only God knows the answer to your question...

Frank