What is the future of this season?

[Stormcenter]

When October rolls around it's basically time for the Fat Lady to sing
for anywhere along the Gulf coast IMO.

Well if we get a hyperactive September and October, than 16-18 storms should be no problem. I'm still thinking 14-16 but will probably lower if nothing gets going by early September.

[KWT]

Not quite IMO stormcenter, though I agree the main action tends to shift eastwards by that time towards Florida/Bahamas/W.Caribbean islands.

FWIW CFS latest run a touch less mental BUT still produces 8NS and probably several marginal systems that could get the nod or maybe not...of those several develops in the Caribbean/Gulf...just for some interest!

[tolakram]

For what it's worth, the 2005 season, as of August 22, would have been on Jose. So that season is 7 storms ahead already.

Glad you posted that.

So let's take 2005 total storm count ... 28 - 7 = 21 potential storms left.

Not likely of course, but worth comparing.

[KWT]

Ok I've been carefully studying everything and I've come to the conclusion...

The season will bust at least from a numbers point of view...there is no way we get even close to 18NS with the current set-up aloft. Its a little better but its nothing too impressive and the MJO isn't even going to become favourable, all the focus is on the phase 3-4 which isn't really going to do the Atlantic any good bar maybe Africa and the far E.atlantic.

Now that is not to say we won't get a biggie threaten land over the next two months, and I'd still bank on a big October storm BUT I've now given up on this season producing even 15NS yet alone 17-20NS the agencies were calling for.

What I see is nothing that screams a hyper period is coming up, will probably roll along close to climo for the rest of the season, so maybe 12-13NS. Pretty much we are stuck in a rut that shows NO sign of changing and if its not produced the goods so far, its probably not going to do much good down the line either.

So my call for the rest of the season now is....

10-5-3

which would lead to 13-6-3 overall...we will see what happens but I see a rather massive bust coming for all the agencies...ACE probably will come in still decently above average though due to a couple of long tracking hurricanes.

Note, even forecasting 10NS might be a little on the agressive side but we will see!

[cycloneye]

KWT,even with a moderate La Nina which causes late season developments?

[KWT]

Yep even with a La Nina...thats why I'm going with 3 majors not 2...if we weren't in La Nina I'd have gone something like 8-4-2 for the rest of the season...

I just can't see anything *that* condusive out there to be honest, its not exactly unfavourable but there are enough negatives to balance out the obvious positives at the moment...and the season just hasn't been able to gel all the positives together because of the negatives.

The way I view it is we are now close to the 20th of August, in 1998/1999 the seaosn exploded right about now. Sure we do probably get a hurricane from the CV wave but I'm not seeing anything that stands out apart from that in the next 10 days.

As you know I've been prepared to give this season till the 20th August to see if it shows signs of ramping up and importantly a change in background patterns...and to be honest, I'm not seeing enough of a change to make me think this is going to explode...of course it will pick up somewhat more in September, I'd suspect probably a fairly decent September but nothing too outlandish in terms of numbers, maybe a little above average since I do think that TUTT will weaken in a big way over the next 10 days.

Who knows, maybe I'm jumping off the boat too soon and the season explodes in early September, it can happen as 1961 has proved...but I'm getting BIG doubts about this season oerall.

[hurricaneCW]

Well I knew eventually all those who said give it time would cave in. There are some huge factors that are causing the inactivity that stems way beyond the Atlantic basin. The global activity is at a record low and no signs of change anywhere. We could be talking about the biggest forecast bust in history. 1 Fish is all I see in the next 2 weeks, that's all.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well I knew eventually all those who said give it time would cave in. There are some huge factors that are causing the inactivity that stems way beyond the Atlantic basin. The global activity is at a record low and no signs of change anywhere. We could be talking about the biggest forecast bust in history. 1 Fish is all I see in the next 2 weeks, that's all.

HurricaneCW, I'd give it about 10 more days before you get too concerned about a inactive season.....I just mentioned in another thread that I'm curious what our local mets here are thinking about what's going on the tropics. I'm sure they have an opinion ...

Also, remember Fish still count towards the total. That 2nd wave didn't look like it was going fish. From what I remembered, it looked as if it was heading right for the islands. I need to back and read that particular thread though and look at the maps...

[hurricaneCW]

JB is probably squirming in his seat right now. I bet many forecasters are after such incredibly high expectations. I suppose it's still possible to do well if September through November turn out to be extremely active, but at this point I strongly doubt it. I love how the forecasters are saying that the Atlantic is about to become active. Like no duh, considering we are rapidly climbing the top of the bell curve in tropical activity, it's supposed to be active right now.

[boca]

This time of year should be active even in a slow season due to climatology.I don't know what to make of this season,but I can tell you I won't put any stock into the hurricane season predictions anymore.Maybe it will pick up next week like some posters were saying.In three weeks if it doesn't pick up it will be passed the peak of Sept 10th.Like I said in another post when I se it I'll believe it.

[Tropics Guy]

Three weeks from peak & the basin should be full of activity in a normal year by now. Really think that there are other environmental factors at play that are inhibiting development besides SAL, SST's & shear, etc. Don't really know when the "switch" will be turned on, but if it doesn't happen soon, then many of the preseason predictions will be a big bust.............

TG

[Steve]

>>Really think that there are other environmental factors at play that are inhibiting development besides SAL, SST's & shear, etc. Don't really know when the "switch" will be turned on...

Usually it happens in late August. There aren't many telltale signs yet. GFS is bringing some 0 and -10's farther south into the North Atlantic around the 24th, but it similarly repeats the pattern of circling lows from the NE through Canada and around the Great Lakes. So we'll just have to wait and see if that's a hint or the switch. Check out some of the links below for where we have been and maybe where we're headed.

As a lot of people have said, many of the weather patterns have been stuck this year (rainfall in the Gulf, storms in the midwest, heatwave in Russia, monsoonal flooding in Pakistan, etc.). But when you look to some of the indexes, you don't see any radical swings that might signal change. NAO isn't forecast to go back toward positive until around September 1st. That's hinted in the 7 and 10 day forecasts
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... _mrf.shtml

The Ensembles really tank it in the interim:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... ensm.shtml

Here's a loop for the 30 day 200hPa height anomalies
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intras ... anim.shtml

This is the polar view 30 day height anomalies at 500hPa. It shows some heights starting to build into the Maritimes where there had previously been lower pressure.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intras ... anim.shtml

30 Day SOI is at +17.9 (+25.1 today).

Following along with some of these pattern measurements may yield some clues over the next few days and weeks in the absence of any strong MJO pulses to telegraph that switch.

[ColinDelia]

Of course there are factors we still don't understand. That isn't and shouldn't be part of the debate. Whether we ended up with 8 storms, 16 storms or 24 storms this season wouldn't change that knowledge much at all. Our lack of knowledge is not only known it is quantifiable. It is well detailed in the CSU papers. I would argue that one season won't teach us much of anything in that regard. You need many more data points than that. But how about over more than a century?

CSU's method explains 51% of the variance from 1900-2009. You get the same 51% if you break it down into two periods from 1900-1948 and from 1949-2009. So it is true there are still factors we don't understand. Over more than a century of records half of the variance in the number of tropical storms is explained by their method.

That doesn't mean that they are basin-wide factors like ocean temps, sea level pressures, the Southern Oscillation and so on. Then again they might be. But it also might be that there are small, random perturbations that will never be explained (or maybe they are small perturbations that will be explained. who really knows?) I imagine it is some combination.

For now CSU's method explains about half the variance in the number of named storms in a season. On August 1 their method can explain whether the rest of the season is going to be above average or below average 84% of the time. So it will be wrong in that regard 1 out of 6 seasons. There's still a lot to learn. This is just the pioneer stage.

[Stormcenter]

The thing is it's like this (quiet) all over the tropics (world wide)and not just the Atlantic right now.
It's not normal folks.

Three weeks from peak & the basin should be full of activity in a normal year by now. Really think that there are other environmental factors at play that are inhibiting development besides SAL, SST's & shear, etc. Don't really know when the "switch" will be turned on, but if it doesn't happen soon, then many of the preseason predictions will be a big bust.............

TG

[Steve]

>>The thing is it's like this (quiet) all over the tropics (world wide)and not just the Atlantic right now. It's not normal folks.

What's not normal? Do you realize that over 95% of your last 250 posts were promoting a slack-season or lack of activity?

[lester]

I know besides Alex all our storms have sucked majorly and I know so far this season has been overrated but as 1998 and 2004 has showed us don't count out september or october. With the upper level environment those months could still make up for a disappointing start to the season.

Just my opinion

[Cryomaniac]

I still think that a 16-5-3 season is possible. It's not really likely now, but you never know.

[StormClouds63]

Ok I've been carefully studying everything and I've come to the conclusion...

The season will bust at least from a numbers point of view...there is no way we get even close to 18NS with the current set-up aloft. Its a little better but its nothing too impressive and the MJO isn't even going to become favourable, all the focus is on the phase 3-4 which isn't really going to do the Atlantic any good bar maybe Africa and the far E.atlantic.

Now that is not to say we won't get a biggie threaten land over the next two months, and I'd still bank on a big October storm BUT I've now given up on this season producing even 15NS yet alone 17-20NS the agencies were calling for.

What I see is nothing that screams a hyper period is coming up, will probably roll along close to climo for the rest of the season, so maybe 12-13NS. Pretty much we are stuck in a rut that shows NO sign of changing and if its not produced the goods so far, its probably not going to do much good down the line either.

So my call for the rest of the season now is....

10-5-3

which would lead to 13-6-3 overall...we will see what happens but I see a rather massive bust coming for all the agencies...ACE probably will come in still decently above average though due to a couple of long tracking hurricanes.

Note, even forecasting 10NS might be a little on the agressive side but we will see!

KWT:

Prior to June 1, I had 13/7/3 ... and thought that might be a little low. However, with the 3 named systems, that would leave 10/6/3 ... so we're pretty close. You know you're stuff so I feel better about my initial prediction. Maybe others, too, will come to the realization that the chances of a very busy or "hyperactive" season are dwindling as each day goes by.

[SoupBone]

Of course there are factors we still don't understand. That isn't and shouldn't be part of the debate. Whether we ended up with 8 storms, 16 storms or 24 storms this season wouldn't change that knowledge much at all. Our lack of knowledge is not only known it is quantifiable. It is well detailed in the CSU papers. I would argue that one season won't teach us much of anything in that regard. You need many more data points than that. But how about over more than a century?

CSU's method explains 51% of the variance from 1900-2009. You get the same 51% if you break it down into two periods from 1900-1948 and from 1949-2009. So it is true there are still factors we don't understand. Over more than a century of records half of the variance in the number of tropical storms is explained by their method.

That doesn't mean that they are basin-wide factors like ocean temps, sea level pressures, the Southern Oscillation and so on. Then again they might be. But it also might be that there are small, random perturbations that will never be explained (or maybe they are small perturbations that will be explained. who really knows?) I imagine it is some combination.

For now CSU's method explains about half the variance in the number of named storms in a season. On August 1 their method can explain whether the rest of the season is going to be above average or below average 84% of the time. So it will be wrong in that regard 1 out of 6 seasons. There's still a lot to learn. This is just the pioneer stage.

I don't think 110 years of data is a large enough sampling considering Earth is approx. 4.5 Billion years old. There is a lot we still don't know yet and it would be incredibly naive and arrogant to think we do (this is not directed at you...in general). We should learn things from each season; especially one that bucks many forecasts. I see this season heating up soon, but you can't deny that right now (globally) it's a bit too quiet.

[Stormcenter]

A "bit" too quiet is an understatement.
It is down right scary.

Of course there are factors we still don't understand. That isn't and shouldn't be part of the debate. Whether we ended up with 8 storms, 16 storms or 24 storms this season wouldn't change that knowledge much at all. Our lack of knowledge is not only known it is quantifiable. It is well detailed in the CSU papers. I would argue that one season won't teach us much of anything in that regard. You need many more data points than that. But how about over more than a century?

CSU's method explains 51% of the variance from 1900-2009. You get the same 51% if you break it down into two periods from 1900-1948 and from 1949-2009. So it is true there are still factors we don't understand. Over more than a century of records half of the variance in the number of tropical storms is explained by their method.

That doesn't mean that they are basin-wide factors like ocean temps, sea level pressures, the Southern Oscillation and so on. Then again they might be. But it also might be that there are small, random perturbations that will never be explained (or maybe they are small perturbations that will be explained. who really knows?) I imagine it is some combination.

For now CSU's method explains about half the variance in the number of named storms in a season. On August 1 their method can explain whether the rest of the season is going to be above average or below average 84% of the time. So it will be wrong in that regard 1 out of 6 seasons. There's still a lot to learn. This is just the pioneer stage.

I don't think 110 years of data is a large enough sampling considering Earth is approx. 4.5 Billion years old. There is a lot we still don't know yet and it would be incredibly naive and arrogant to think we do (this is not directed at you...in general). We should learn things from each season; especially one that bucks many forecasts. I see this season heating up soon, but you can't deny that right now (globally) it's a bit too quiet.