She looks...

[chadtm80]

MEAN!!!!


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... US_nir.jpg

[Guest]

Those satellites are making her look mean. But who knows its been said that Texas storms always seem to strenghten right before landfall. Will Erika do the same?

Patricia

P.S. SE Texas is in the clear blue sky zone .....

[KatDaddy]

Our time will eventually run out and we still have a solid 6 weeks to go for NW GOM. In addition no major hurricanes yet. Joe B will be eating crow as Texas endures another landfall possibly being a hurricane.

Kinda concerned a massive storm will strike the Upper TX and SW LA coast later this season. This based on a feeling I have had since the beginning of hurricane season.

[Guest]

Well time is running out for this year Katdaddy. It seems the 2nd week of September and there isn't much acitivity around these parts. Just my 2 cts. worth.

Patricia

[GalvestonDuck]

Our time will eventually run out and we still have a solid 6 weeks to go for NW GOM. In addition no major hurricanes yet. Joe B will be eating crow as Texas endures another landfall possibly being a hurricane.

Kinda concerned a massive storm will strike the Upper TX and SW LA coast later this season. This based on a feeling I have had since the beginning of hurricane season.

I agree and am equally concerned. I can't help but think about how they (forecasters, historians) keep telling us that we're overdue for a major one since it's been 20 years now since Alicia.

As for how she looks -- Sonic the Hedgehog comes to my mind.

[Air Force Met]

Katdaddy - JB said "historically" when you get a landfalling storm early on TX...you don't get one late. He never said it won't happen. Historically he is correct. Multiple strikes do occur but are rare. 1989 was a dream year for the tropical minded in the Houston area.

He certainly did not say you can't get multiple tropical storm strikes in one year...and this one won't be a hurricane if it doesn't slow down reeeeal quick.

[Guest]

So AFMet you are saying we are historically out of the woods for any other hurricanes for this year?

[wx247]

Time really isn't running out... hurricane season goes through November. June and July are fairly calm so we shall see what the rest of August, Sept., and October bring the Texas Gulf Coast.

[Air Force Met]

We are not out of the woods historically until the second week in October. It's all probabilities. How many times can you flip a coin and it come up heads? Everytime of course. However, the bet is you won't. You may have a season like '89 where you have Chantal in early August and Jerry in mid-Oct. Anything is possible.
Forecasting long-range weather patterns is like playing dice in Vegas. You really have no idea what will happen 2 months from now so the safest bet is climo and climo says no.
The same logic...only in reverse...is being applied by many here on this site: "It's been x number of years...we are due." Well...yeah...the only reason we are due is because climo says we are due. Mother nature does not look at her calendar and say "hey...texas is over-due for a cat 3 or higher...let's schedule it for mid-September." For example, if Texas get's a hurricane every 2.5 years...and we go from 1989-1998 without a hurricane...we are overdue...right? However, Since 1999 we have had two hurricanes. So...that is higher than the 2.5 avg. Does that mean we are "underdue"? Nope. Sometimes snakes eyes comes up two or three times in a row...and sometimes you can roll for an hour without hitting it.
The same climo that is being used to say "we are over-due" is the same climo being used to say "it won't happen." Odds are it won't happen. Climo says you are over-due. Being over-due for an event means absolutely nothing as you can be overdue for 20 more years...or you may get 3 Cat 3's in a row in '04.
Sometimes it comes up heads 5 times in a row...sometimes tails. Most of the time...it is a combo. Same with weather. Hence the reason the VERY first thing they teach you in forecaster's school is to NOT forecast records or against climo unless you have a VERY GOOD reason. Gut feelings do not a forecast make...especially when you go against climo.

[Guest]

Good Discussion AFMet. Thanks for taking the time to post that.

[Air Force Met]

There's a reason they call it climo Ticka My philosophy is that there isn't really a "normal" and if you step outside that "normal" something is really wrong. A batter's hitting average is made up of extremes. Sometimes he goes 3 for 5...and sometimes he goes 0 for 5. When averaged out...he bats .300.

Same thing with weather. The average summer temp in Houston is in the low 90's. That is made up of days where it was 100...and days like Tuesday where it got up to only 86. Same with hurricanes. You have years like '89 where you get Allison, Chantal and Jerry. Then you have years like 81, 82, 84, 85, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97 and 2000 where you get NOTHING!

When you deal in long range forecating...it is really playing the climo odds. Factoring in things like El Nino will help lean the climo numbers one way or the other. It only takes ONE storm to make the season memoriable. In 1983...there were only 4 storms...a totally dead year numbers wise. However, one of them was Alicia. Again...somtimes you can use the tools of climo to say lower or higher...but there can always be that one little fluke of nature that ruins your parade.

[GalvestonDuck]

The same logic...only in reverse...is being applied by many here on this site: "It's been x number of years...we are due." get 3 Cat 3's in a row in '04.

I'm just quoting what the TV mets say on those darned tropical weather specials. Heck, they even had some stupid special scheduled a couple of years ago called "Overdue for Disaster?" on ABC-13. They had to cancel it because Allison hit two days before the scheduled broadcast day.

Still consider myself new to the area since I've only been in TX for 5 years. Don't take what I say as logic. It's far from logical. It's Yankee.

[Air Force Met]

It's funny about how people talk about JB hyping. They need to move to houston and watch channel 2, 11 and 13 overhyping. Even Dr. Frank got in on the hype last year with Lili...saying it had not turned and was still heading towards us when it had clearly turned already and was not a threat.

Being overdue means there was a deadline that passes and you missed it. There is no such thing as "overdue" in weather. The TV guys probably don't understand that given that most are broadcast mets and not REAL mets. They won't know avort chart if it hit them in the face.

Same logic applies as to why you can have 2-100 year floods in 5 years. It's all climo. Those tv met guys are into ratings. Don't watch them for facts. Neil Frank burned his bridge when he kept hyping Lili last year, even after any first year met student could clearly see (and everyone here saw it too) that it had turned and was not a danger. I will enver forget him saying at 6 PM (after it had turned that morning) "We are still waiting on it to turn...it hasn't done that yet so we need to be prepared so stay tuned."
After that...I was done with him. NO reason for that other than hype. He either had not looked at the info...which means I don't want to watch him....or he had ignored it...which means he said it for ratings...and I won't watch him.

[GalvestonDuck]

That's why I like this board. I find out so much more than what they say on TV (including The Weather Channel). All they really tell us is location, direction, speed -- the basic stuff. You guys give us more so that we can understand why it's going where's it going and why it's doing what it's doing and what it might do later, based on your best observations.

Gotta admit, I still get a bit worried when they come close...but not as bad as I used to. I'm glad that there are solid, educated, level-headed mets here who can inform and educate so much better than those TV guys.

Still, I worry that we're overdue.

[vbhoutex]

Great discussions AFmet!!

I remember vividly last year sitting in front of the tv screaming at DR. Neal-"what the hell are you talking about, it turned hours ago!!!" And anyone that followed me with Lili last year can tell you I didn't think that turn was coming till it happened - it I busted that one. But when my "beloved" Dr. Neal did that last year I knew he had headed down the path to predition!!LOL!!!

[Guest]

I have to agree to Duck. But one thing we have to remember those T.V. mets aren't their own bosses. They have to answer to someone else. And with any job - like AFMet said earlier - Dr Neil hyping Lili to Houston - if someone tells you to do it - usually its do it or lose your job. I know having worked in corporate america....

The higher up's could care less about your reputation and etc...it comes back to the bottom line.

I agree Duck being educated is one of the best tools for not panicking. I don't always agree with everything everyone says.....they don't call me hardheaded for nothing...LOL.

Everyone have a good weekend - rest up Fabian's coming...

[mitchell]

Those tv met guys are into ratings. Don't watch them for facts.

Agree... having watched the DC/Balto/Philly guys for the last 20 years its funy to see exactly how creatively they pursue the ratings by filling viewer niches. Theres always been a doom and gloom guy ("i.e. this storm has the potential to cripple tomorrow mornings rush hour" - when referring to two inches of snow) , the "personality" guys (i.e. Willard Scott, Bob Turk who generally omit the details completely) the serious guy (throws out complicated sounding words like virga, overrunning), and let us not forget the weather babes!

[Air Force Met]

Amwn vbhoutex. I was yelling as well. Not a minute after he went off the air...a long time friend of mine who is also a met (retired USAF) called me screaming at the top of his lungs.

[ColdFront77]

Meteorologists on TV as well as those that discuss the weather here know why a weather system moves in a certain direction.

[Steve]

Lots of good posts on this thread. Great way to explain the climo phenomina AFM. In New Orleans over the last 25 years, we've had at least 3 100 year floods and 1 300 year flood. Sometimes it just happens like that. Louisiana has had plenty of hurricane seasons without any tropical waves, then we had 4 hits last year and the first landfaller of 2003. Statistically there's no way to predict a specific locale's liklihood. But one can look at weather patterns and get an idea of who might or might not be in danger. And something I'd like to expound on are years where there's expected to be less than average activity. Some of the low storm years (with or without supressing El Ninos) have born storms like Camile, Betsy or Andrew. The old cliche' that it only takes one constantly needs to be hammered home.

And people really need to quit bashing Bastardi. He's not the god of tropical weather, but he's damn good. You'll learn something new or pick up a tip almost every day from his column or videos. I find (and this in no way applies to Kat Daddy in this instance) that most of the people that bash him are far more arrogant than he comes off as. But some people will go out of their way to knock him. Like what, they're better or something? Doubtful. And you see him getting bashed by those same people a lot more when he's wrong then getting credit from them when he's dead on. He is one of several resources I call on for tropical coverage. Earlier this year I got into a pretty heated debate by someone who accused me of aping Bastardi, which I will never do. If I use something of his, he gets the credit. In that argument, said individual trashed him over a blown call in the early 80's. What the hell is that? I'd suggest if that individual happens across this thread, and I haven't seen him in quite a while, he look back at what everyone else (official sources, models, themselves, et al) said about Isidore, Lili, Bill, Claudette and now Erika. Joe B. did yeoman's work and earned my $19.95/month during tropical season. And though I had been reading him for a few years, with those specific storms he earned my respect.

Steve