What is the future of this season?

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ConvergenceZone
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#101 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:04 pm

This season should still be good for 12 to 15 total storms, in spite of what we are going through now...
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#102 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:09 pm

Well if we get a hyperactive September and October, than 16-18 storms should be no problem. I'm still thinking 14-16 but will probably lower if nothing gets going by early September.
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#103 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:13 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Well if we get a hyperactive September and October, than 16-18 storms should be no problem. I'm still thinking 14-16 but will probably lower if nothing gets going by early September.



Yep, it would have to be extremely hyperactive too...I'm not sold on it...Still waiting for the evidence. Ya know Sunday i was thinking, "Yep, the switch has been turned on big time" when I saw what the the GFS was brining in. Remember that? It showed 3 systems in the Atlantic at once. Now it shows 1 really strong system and another system that seems to be weakening with each passing model run. So we may be down to just 1 potential system here shortly.

So I don't see an evidence of a hyperactive switch being turned on yet.....
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#104 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:06 pm

What really confuses me is why do people on here get upset if it isn't busy? I've been coming on this board for years and one thing I've never understood is those who wish for storms. Is there some type of strange fixation on destruction, watching harm and/or death on your fellow neighbors? We should be praying non-stop while we witness these events that they DO dissipate. We should LIKE windshear. There is a strange sort of sadomasochism with WANTING hurricanes. Seriously. Nothing would make me happier than to have a season with not a single storm, and I fully support any bio-friendly efforts by our government to wipe out these systems in the future totally.
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#105 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:12 pm

Well there's a difference between getting a harmless storm and getting one that devastates somebody. I think most people want to see a powerful hurricane that stays out at sea. That's what this forum is for, for tropical systems.
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Re:

#106 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:19 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:What really confuses me is why do people on here get upset if it isn't busy? I've been coming on this board for years and one thing I've never understood is those who wish for storms. Is there some type of strange fixation on destruction, watching harm and/or death on your fellow neighbors? We should be praying non-stop while we witness these events that they DO dissipate. We should LIKE windshear. There is a strange sort of sadomasochism with WANTING hurricanes. Seriously. Nothing would make me happier than to have a season with not a single storm, and I fully support any bio-friendly efforts by our government to wipe out these systems in the future totally.

Well, we love the Beauty that is the hurricane. We love tracking them. I dought anyone wants to have their roof torn off or drown in surge. And if nothing ever happened, what would the NHC do? They would all be fired. And as for the Wiping out, Lets remember they do have a purpose here in the world and we dont know the effects of no storms. Also, the last time we tried, I believe China Got angry because that effects there rain. We live in their world, not the other way around. We need to prepare for them and hope for the best.
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#107 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:30 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:What really confuses me is why do people on here get upset if it isn't busy? I've been coming on this board for years and one thing I've never understood is those who wish for storms. Is there some type of strange fixation on destruction, watching harm and/or death on your fellow neighbors? We should be praying non-stop while we witness these events that they DO dissipate. We should LIKE windshear. There is a strange sort of sadomasochism with WANTING hurricanes. Seriously. Nothing would make me happier than to have a season with not a single storm, and I fully support any bio-friendly efforts by our government to wipe out these systems in the future totally.



I had to explain this to my girlfriend one time Sean and basically I explained to her that we enjoy the "beauty" and "fascination" of watching the intricate development of one of mother nature's wonders.... The storm isn't going to develop or not develop based upon our wishes. The storm is going to go where it wants to go and when it comes to go....You are right, hurricanes can be terriblly destructive creatures. Since they are going to develop whether we want them too or not, we might as well focus on the majestic beauty of a developing storm, as opposed to focusing on the destructive aspects of a developing storm....
That's probably the best way I can explain it from my own viewpoint anyway...I think many others feel the same way though.
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#108 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:51 pm

I hear you guys and I do understand, but, some people on here get so truly upset that it's slow or if a storm dies, etc....hey remember one, thing. It IS nature....it's alright to like it if nature decides that it doesn't want to develop a system. There is beauty in all aspects of the weather...there is beauty in watching one fizzle, and that is really the best thing to happen when people and property are threatened. So when you see windshear tearing a storm apart....dazzle yourself in the beauty of upper level winds on the planet Earth! :D
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#109 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:55 pm

It's a weather board. In the absence of weather, no one would post.
And if I wanted to watch strong upper-level winds, then I would watch satellite images of those endlessly.
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#110 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:59 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I hear you guys and I do understand, but, some people on here get so truly upset that it's slow or if a storm dies, etc....hey remember one, thing. It IS nature....it's alright to like it if nature decides that it doesn't want to develop a system. There is beauty in all aspects of the weather...there is beauty in watching one fizzle, and that is really the best thing to happen when people and property are threatened. So when you see windshear tearing a storm apart....dazzle yourself in the beauty of upper level winds on the planet Earth! :D



Yea, that's a good point Steve...The thing is, if this year doesn't produce much, you know for a fact that future years will, so what's the rush? :wink:

As far as the fascination goes, I guess that's part of being an extreme weather nut like myself...Heck, I was out there chasing tornados in Kansas in my honda civic, LOL...Just the rush of being in an extreme weather event gets my blood going..... I'll probably move to Florida when I retire, just not on the coast :)
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#111 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:05 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:It's a weather board. In the absence of weather, no one would post.
And if I wanted to watch strong upper-level winds, then I would watch satellite images of those endlessly.

LOL...it's just as much pure weather as is a hurricane or a sunny day with no clouds. It's ALL weather. When it is cold, it is weather, when it is hot, it is weather. When it rains, it is weather, same with snow, sunny days, summertime storms, or clear skies. It's all weather. :wink:
Last edited by Sean in New Orleans on Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#112 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:05 pm

I was thinking, the best comparision I can make to love watcing hurricanes form and develop is Tornado Chasers

Just like the movie twister when they got all pumped when they'd see a tornado drop down, so do real life chasers, like those on the weather channel or elsewhere. They thrill at watcing a tornado form and move down...I highly doubt if any of those people actually want to see death and destruction, but just the thrill and fascination of the event and the chase gets them going....I find that we as hurricane enthusiasts share the same passion and enthusiasm.....

I guess we are hurricane chasers :wink:
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#113 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:18 pm

I'm a chaser too, Convergence! I like to chase them away! :sun:
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Re:

#114 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:29 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm a chaser too, Convergence! I like to chase them away! :sun:


hehe, understand. I remember when I lived in Pueblo and a very severe thunderstorm came in with incredible straight line winds and lightning...Being the nut I am, I was in the backyard with my video camera getting blown all over the place, and drenched and just loving every minute of it as trees were falling all around me....God what a rush that was!!! :lol:

I did volunteer though for cleaning up our neighborhood as it was totalled pretty bad....
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#115 Postby Ikester » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:10 pm

For what it's worth, the 2005 season, as of August 22, would have been on Jose. So that season is 7 storms ahead already. I think it is interesting, as I posted in another topic, that the Weather Research Center in Houston only called for 8 storms this year thanks to solar activity. See their press release below. I think we'll be hard pressed to see anything close to 18 storms or more. Just my opinion...

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#116 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:20 pm

I hope that every location on the surface of the earth maintains temperatures comparable to Quito, Ecquador. I also hope that every location obtains only as much rain as is exactly necessary to sustain life. I hope for no snow at any location unless snow can alleviate drought conditions. I hope winds never exceed a gentle breeze. I hope no tornadoes occur. Every year I hope for a 1914 hurricane season repeat.

Sarcasm aside, obviously, I meant the absence of significant weather. More simply delete the hurricanes, particularly the landfalling hurricanes, and the posting slows. Last season shows this trivially.
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#117 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:34 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:I hope that every location on the surface of the earth maintains temperatures comparable to Quito, Ecquador. I also hope that every location obtains only as much rain as is exactly necessary to sustain life. I hope for no snow at any location unless snow can alleviate drought conditions. I hope winds never exceed a gentle breeze. I hope no tornadoes occur. Every year I hope for a 1914 hurricane season repeat.

Sarcasm aside, obviously, I meant the absence of significant weather. More simply delete the hurricanes, particularly the landfalling hurricanes, and the posting slows. Last season shows this trivially.

I know what you meant! It's actually been a nice season for New Orleans....we've had tropical weather a good deal thus far, and tonight, we're getting the loop system and, according to radar, looks like it is going to go directly over New Orleans while I'm at work in the morning. No complaints while they are weak! Keeps it cool (or cooler).
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#118 Postby abajan » Tue Aug 17, 2010 6:14 am

dwsqos2 wrote:I hope that every location on the surface of the earth maintains temperatures comparable to Quito, Ecquador. I also hope that every location obtains only as much rain as is exactly necessary to sustain life. I hope for no snow at any location unless snow can alleviate drought conditions. I hope winds never exceed a gentle breeze. I hope no tornadoes occur. Every year I hope for a 1914 hurricane season repeat...
Sounds a bit like the weather one of those planets that have just one ocean of water and no land. Such planets exist, according to what NatGeo showed recently.
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#119 Postby Agua » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:14 am

The stress of sitting up all night watching an intensifying cane wobble so as to determine if my family needs to evacuate is not the kind of "excitement" I particularly enjoy. I've lived through these things. They're no fun, and neither is sitting in the suffocating heat and darkness for weeks afterwards while electricity is restored. The best place to watch a hurricane make landfall is on TV.
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Re: What is the future of this season?

#120 Postby MBC » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:44 am

I also think about doctors and surgeons. No one wants to see someone sick or dying, but of course it happens every day! But this is what doctors have studied so hard for, and live for! When the time comes, they're ready and know what to do! (well, most anyway! :lol: ) I have seen doctors get "excited" over a difficult case. Not at all because they want to see someone dying, but this is what they have practiced, and learned and went to school for years to do. They get to learn and put their expertise into action. And that is what's exciting for them.

The hurricanes will happen. I'm thankful for the met's and hurricane experts who are learning every year. Maybe there will be better preparation, greater understanding, and who knows, maybe there will be a way someday to break these apart, but for now, we learn.



Hope it helps from that perspective. Going back to "lurker" mode now. :D
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