ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

here is the nice exposed center ... its not extremely well defined as it continues to try to keep up with the convection so it has to keep reforming every new burst.. but well defined enough for an Upgrade especially with at least some solid 25 to 30kt sfmr from recon.

it is slightly farther north now so lets see if its far enough away from the shear to see some convection fire over top of it without being blow off..

[CrazyC83]

Given its location, I would say they pretty much have to upgrade it at 5 pm since warnings would be necessary right away.

[brunota2003]

Well, recon sent out a VDM.

[CrazyC83]

Well, recon sent out a VDM.

That means there is definitely an LLC. TD5 once again at 5 pm I would say, winds 25 kt and pressure 1008mb. They really cannot be conservative when it comes to systems close to land, as warnings would be necessary.

[thetruesms]

ABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

No upgrade yet

[Ivanhater]

VDM has it 92 mile South of Pensacola

[brunota2003]

TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[bayoubebe]

It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?

[Aric Dunn]

here is the nice exposed center ... its not extremely well defined as it continues to try to keep up with the convection so it has to keep reforming every new burst.. but well defined enough for an Upgrade especially with at least some solid 25 to 30kt sfmr from recon.

it is slightly farther north now so lets see if its far enough away from the shear to see some convection fire over top of it without being blow off..

[img]removed by me[/img]

well I made an adjustment based on recon VDM ( little red dot ) and that my radar overlay finally started working again.. lol

[CrazyC83]

It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?

That is my thinking, it even seems to be going WSW.

[petit_bois]

It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?

if it moves due west it DOES hit SE LA...

[CrazyC83]

It looks like(to my amateur eyes) it is mostly moving WEST. If it keeps going like that, is it possibile SE LA will miss this altogether? Could it track all the way to Texas before going north?

if it moves due west it DOES hit SE LA...

It would brush southern Plaquemines Parish then get back over open water. The lowest shear is in the NW Gulf off the Texas and SW LA coast.

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

Getting some nice hard rain here in Beaumont. Band is moving fast..South about 20.

We had a rain band come through Bridge City a couple of hours ago. Hard rain, not much wind, but rained hard for about an hour. Water over roads here.

Just heard that Beaumont had 50-60 mph wind and several without lights.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see any convection building on the eastern periphery and some of the northern periphery. It could make TD status by landfall but TS status will be small IMO.

[Dave]

Damage Report from Beaumont TX

Date: Aug 16 14:40:00 EDT
Type: Tstm Wind Damage
City: 2 miles ESE Beaumont
County: Jefferson
State: TX
Source: Public
Details: **** 1 INJ *** Roof blown off store in Beaumont
with one injury.

====================
Date: Aug 16 14:55:00 EDT
Type: Tstm Wind Damage
City: Beaumont
Wind Magnitude: Measured 52 MPH
County: Jefferson
State: TX
Source: Public
Details: Lamar University weathernet station reports
52 MPH wind gust.

======================

Date: Aug 16 14:53:00 EDT
Type: TSTM Wind Gust
City: 5 Miles SE Beaumont
State: TX
County: Jefferson
Source: ASOS
Details: ASOS reported 48 MPH Wind Gust

[ColinDelia]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF TD 5 ARE NOW OFFSHORE SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND MOVING
WEST. NHC SAYS WEAK CIRCULATION RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
DECLARE A DEPRESSION...PER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST
CONVECTION IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH A RECENT
BLOWUP SOUTH OF MOBILE MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THINGS TRYING TO
FIRE NEAR THE CENTER. MOST OF CWA HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWEST
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND THIS HAS LIMITED
LAND BASED CONVECTION. COASTAL MISSISSIPPI HAS STARTED SEEING
CONVECTION IN LAST HOUR OR SO...AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE WESTWARD.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS
BASED ON SURFACE OBS...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REFLECTED
IN SATELLITE LOOPS.
&&

[MGC]

To me it looks like the NHC is NOT going to upgrade to a TD at this time. Needs a bit more convection...perhaps tonight. ..If the CC does stay on a westward track than it will cross over extreme south Plaquemines Parish Louisiana then skirt the Louisiana coast. Where the second landfall will occur might be a bit difficult considering the shape of the La coast and the future direction of the low......MGC

[KWT]

Hmmm well this goes to show how subjective upgrading is really, it IMO looks better then it did when it first got upgraded but I can understand why the the NHC have held back, the convection looks to me to be weakening a little recently...probably don't want to upgrade only to get it weaken right away like TD5 did the first time round.

[StormClouds63]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IS TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO BASE THE FORECAST ON HPC-PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MOVES THE WEAK SYSTEM INTO SERN LA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN PUSHES WHAT`S LEFT OF IT WNWWD INTO CNTL LA BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM THEN EJECTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY. RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5-7 INCHES OVER THE SERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 1-4 INCHES. BULK OF THE RAINFALL OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS TO FALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS FROM TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE WILL
BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH S-CNTL LA EFFECTIVE TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE WORDING THE WATCH AS TOTALS RUNNING 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA. AS THE RAIN WILL BE SPREADING NWD/WWD INTO TOMORROW NIGHT FEEL WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH FOR ANY OTHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH I FEEL GOOD THAT THE WATCH
WILL BE EXPANDED AT SOME POINT.

[Vortmax1]

The extrapolated forward motion has been SW most all day:



https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_05