ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it has begun moving a tad more north of west the last couple of radar images.

[StormClouds63]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Does this become Danielle?
No.

*Edited by Ivanhater to add disclaimer

[KWT]

Hmmm still a little too early to know stormcloud, I'd imagine the NHC may well upgrade soon, then its dependant on just whether it can stack itself a little better...the thing that may prevent it is the fact that the deep convection is all on the southern side which may limit the winds a little perhaps

[Ivanhater]

Add disclaimers when you make absolute statements

[Stormcenter]

It looks like convection is starting to develop to the northeast of center.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[KWT]

Recon clearly showing a pretty well defined low, I'd imagine the NHC will wait to see a decent west wind but given the convection is nearby I see no reason why this won't be upgraded soon.

[tailgater]

If it's moving WSW at 6 mph then it has more then enough time
to get it's act together before landfall.

Probably moving a bit faster than that, more 8-12ph. IMHO

[brunota2003]

Oh, I thought "it" was the recon plane. The low won't move with the upper-level winds. It'll move with the lowest level winds being such a weak low.

My bad! I'll be a little more specific next time, I know I went from recon in one post to storm movement in another

[petit_bois]

NHC will have to issue tropical storm warnings at 5pm... "it" is going to make landfall somewhere and just the possibility of a TS is evident...

Probably Mississippi coast to Buras, LA

JMHO

[wxman57]

It's certainly better organized than when it was first upgraded, but it's quite sheared.

Yeah I agree it does look better then when it got upgraded, its got a classic sheared presentation but since when has that ever stopped the NHC from upgrading in the Gulf. I see no real reason the NHC doesn't upgrade given the fact its close to land.

I do agree it qualifies for a reclassification to a TD and I fully expect the NHC to do so within the hour. But I suspect their track will keep it a TD until it moves inland tomorrow.

[tailgater]

A couple of SFRM obs in the mid 30's range so I wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to at least TD status again. sure doesn't look like much ATTM.

[MGC]

The low still don't look like it qualifies for a TD IMO.....but NHC may upgrade anyway so warning can be issued considering that it is so close to land. Need more convection on the east side to upgrade.....MGC

[KWT]

If it's moving WSW at 6 mph then it has more then enough time
to get it's act together before landfall.

Probably moving a bit faster than that, more 8-12ph. IMHO

It does look like its moving slower...

Also worth noting convection looks like its weakening on the SW side, so the NHC may hold back if that carries on and it looks to me like shear has increased again a little as the convection is starting to outrun the circulation.

However right now it probably is a TD and I agree Wxman57, despite the weakening convection, they probably should upgrade but I also agree, they won't go higher then 30kts IMO...

[wxman57]

It looks like convection is starting to develop to the northeast of center.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

I don't see any convection northeast of the center. Did you mean northwest?

[Aric Dunn]

A couple of SFRM obs in the mid 30's range so I wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to at least TD status again. sure doesn't look like much ATTM.

they were all flagged.. so dont think they will use them..

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry......I meant to say to the NW.

It looks like convection is starting to develop to the northeast of center.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

I don't see any convection northeast of the center. Did you mean northwest?

[SunnyThoughts]

Regardless if this becomes a named storm, what a fun and interesting little system to watch for a couple weeks. Not very often we get to see one storm system, move inland, then re-emerge and gain TD status again, if this indeed is upgraded.

[Aric Dunn]

A couple of SFRM obs in the mid 30's range so I wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to at least TD status again. sure doesn't look like much ATTM.

they were all flagged.. so dont think they will use them..

well the next set just came in and there is 2 30kt sfmr so thats at least promising .. lol

[tailgater]

A couple of SFRM obs in the mid 30's range so I wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to at least TD status again. sure doesn't look like much ATTM.

they were all flagged.. so dont think they will use them..

Check the ones next to the LLC to the SW.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If they upgrade, a TS Warning would probably be needed from Pascagoula to Intracoastal City and a TS Watch might be considered from Intracoastal City to High Island - may need to be extended farther west later if the low center continues to go more southward.