ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[tigergirl]

So what can we be expecting from EX TD05 here in the South Lafourche area? I'm guessing possible heavy rain will be the main threat?

Just lots of rain. No significant wind.

Thanks, thats good as long as it keeps on moving and doesn't slow down or stall.

[Wx_Warrior]

Getting some nice hard rain here in Beaumont. Band is moving fast..South about 20.

[ROCK]

glad I have been beating the "give it some time to stack" drum...as its doing so right now..

you lack convection to the N and E more so to drier air than shear IMO....it is like one minute some of us are saying it looks like crap then turn around, after recon gets in there ,and boom its looking better....

[brunota2003]

Hm...the recco observation from where the wind shifted had a temperature of 24C, the recco down south, where they turned around, had a temperature of 25C

Looking at the obs, the wind shift was about 24.0C, and 8 or so obs later it was 23.3C

[Aric Dunn]

Im starting wonder if this is going to turn north like the models are saying.. the weakness is just not very pronounce and its on the east side of a fairly strong ridge through almost all the steering layers....

This is the mid level steering but the low level steering is about the same I may have to jump on board with a farther west track. Im going to hold out but according to the models it should begin to turn right about now and I see no signs of that I guess I keep an eye on that now..

[vbhoutex]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108909&p=2037912#p2037912
Looking at the recon graphic they apparently flew through at least the sw side of the LLC and are now headed N trying to close it off. Shows a definite drop of winds and change of direction of same time indicating this. Highest indication of winds so far I see is 25 kts. If they close this off and I think there is no doubt there I would expect TD status sooner than later.

[brunota2003]

According to that, shouldn't it actually be heading WSW or SW?

[Aric Dunn]

glad I have been beating the "give it some time to stack" drum...as its doing so right now..

you lack convection to the N and E more so to drier air than shear IMO....it is like one minute some of us are saying it looks like crap then turn around, after recon gets in there ,and boom its looking better....

it still looks like crap.. and there is no signs of "stacking" its still very sheared..

[ROCK]

glad I have been beating the "give it some time to stack" drum...as its doing so right now..

you lack convection to the N and E more so to drier air than shear IMO....it is like one minute some of us are saying it looks like crap then turn around, after recon gets in there ,and boom its looking better....

it still looks like crap.. and there is no signs of "stacking" its still very sheared..

oh so the LLC is exposed more so now than it was before? I think not....

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108909&p=2037912#p2037912
Looking at the recon graphic they apparently flew through at least the sw side of the LLC and are now headed N trying to close it off. Shows a definite drop of winds and change of direction of same time indicating this. Highest indication of winds so far I see is 25 kts. If they close this off and I think there is no doubt there I would expect TD status sooner than later.

yeah it appears the LLC is defined enough to upgrade but the winds are a little less desirable but they upgraded it the first time where there was no defined llc so cant see why they would change that. so I give it 50 /50 at 5pm for upgrade but leaning more towards no because of the shear problem they may wait till 11pm.

[wxman57]

According to that, shouldn't it actually be heading WSW or SW?

They're making an "X" pattern. NW to SE then north to the NE quadrant then SW across the center to the SW quadrant. It's certainly better organized than when it was first upgraded, but it's quite sheared.

[vbhoutex]

glad I have been beating the "give it some time to stack" drum...as its doing so right now..

you lack convection to the N and E more so to drier air than shear IMO....it is like one minute some of us are saying it looks like crap then turn around, after recon gets in there ,and boom its looking better....

it still looks like crap.. and there is no signs of "stacking" its still very sheared..

oh so the LLC is exposed more so now than it was before? I think not....

Gotta disagree with you to an extent Rock. It is not stacked or nearly stacked but it is working on it hard. It may make it later this afternoon, but it isn't there yet imo. And you know I have never been wrong.

[brunota2003]

According to that, shouldn't it actually be heading WSW or SW?

They're making an "X" pattern. NW to SE then north to the NE quadrant then SW across the center to the SW quadrant. It's certainly better organized than when it was first upgraded, but it's quite sheared.

That post was about steering currents, but yes you are right they are doing their X pattern.

[Stormcenter]

If it's moving WSW at 6 mph then it has more then enough time
to get it's act together before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

According to that, shouldn't it actually be heading WSW or SW?

well you have to remember that is a static image in a dynamic environment. the ridge will move east as the system moves west so it should round the south and SW side before texas... at least thats what it looks like at the moment.

[wxman57]

According to that, shouldn't it actually be heading WSW or SW?

They're making an "X" pattern. NW to SE then north to the NE quadrant then SW across the center to the SW quadrant. It's certainly better organized than when it was first upgraded, but it's quite sheared.

That post was about steering currents, but yes you are right they are doing their X pattern.

Oh, I thought "it" was the recon plane. The low won't move with the upper-level winds. It'll move with the lowest level winds being such a weak low.

[Nimbus]

The convection is being pulled southwest by light shear so if the center chases the convection that direction it might buy some more time over water. Hopefully proximity to land issues will limit development but you could make a case for this system riding the coast all the way to Texas based on steering.

[Comanche]

I have crapped on almost everything thusfar this season, including the original TD5 from the surrounding environment, however this actually doesn't look all that bad and I feel we see a name on this one before moving onshore wherever it may go.

[KWT]

It's certainly better organized than when it was first upgraded, but it's quite sheared.

Yeah I agree it does look better then when it got upgraded, its got a classic sheared presentation but since when has that ever stopped the NHC from upgrading in the Gulf. I see no real reason the NHC doesn't upgrade given the fact its close to land.