Upcoming week - August 16-22

[Andrew92]

Since I do not foresee anything major tonight, with possibly the exception of the emergence of ex-TD #5 over the Gulf of Mexico, I will go ahead with the write-up for this week.

Evaluating last week:

The previous week was a badly blown one, in which I hoped this past week would see marked improvement. Fortunately, that was the case! Since I divided the prediction into four facets, I’ll do the same here.

Colin:
Easy forecast, it dissipated fast. Grade here is an A, albeit with very little weight.

93L:
Well, the forecast for a fish certainly was accurate. The intensity was another matter. I predicted a tropical storm and that never came to be. History does suggest it is simply too hard for storms to develop that far north, that far east this time of year. Models, however, pretty much all indicated further development. That’s pretty hard to go against, especially when the NHC agrees. I did also think that it would stay weak, which it obviously did. But given that these models were wrong, but I stayed with the average, that should be my grade here. Last I checked, an “average” grade is often a C.

94L:
This was a very challenging forecast – indicated in my 50% confidence. I predicted a tropical depression on Wednesday. Well, it came late Tuesday, but still not far off. I predicted a 40-45 mph tropical storm before a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana. It never even met those low expectations. However, even though it was a remnant low, the idea of a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana was still dead-on, as that is essentially what happened – it just won’t be recorded in history. After LaBreeze asked a question about how far inland it would get, I responded possibly into Texas. Well, that didn’t happen as it moved north earlier than I thought, but the rainfall threat certainly materialized. Overall, a very tough forecast, but numerous models did not do as good of a job as I did. *cough*GFDL*cough* I also was correct to use the SHIPS as the best possible match, though as I’ve alluded already, I went stronger than it and was wrong. While not a great forecast, this was still very decent all things considered. I give myself a B here.

Elsewhere:
I predicted nothing else to develop and that’s exactly what happened. Grade A here.

Overall:
My not-so-great 93L forecast and my correct predictions of no further development besides it and 94L can probably cancel each other out. It’s just as well, as the main meat should be on what could have been a big story – 94L. I’ve already talked about that forecast and the decent but not great job I did on it, so I’ll wrap up by giving myself an overall grade of a B for the week.

How does this week look? Here we go! With more to talk about this week, this will be another challenge, and a little longer analysis. Still, I'll do my best to explain in detail what is going on and what could easily happen this week.

Evaluating last week

The previous week was a badly blown one, in which I hoped this past week would see marked improvement. Fortunately, that was the case! Since I divided the prediction into four facets, I’ll do the same here.

Colin: Easy forecast, it dissipated fast. Grade here is an A – albeit with very little weight.

93L: Well, the forecast for a fish certainly was accurate. The intensity was another matter. I predicted a tropical storm and that never came to be. History does suggest it is simply too hard for storms to develop that far north, that far east this time of year. Models, however, pretty much all indicated further development. That’s pretty hard to go against, especially when the NHC agrees. I did also think that it would stay weak, which it obviously did. But given that these models were wrong, but I stayed with the average, that should be my grade here. Last I checked, an “average” grade is often a C.

94L: This was a very challenging forecast – indicated in my 50% confidence. I predicted a tropical depression on Wednesday. Well, it came late Tuesday, but still not far off. I predicted a 40-45 mph tropical storm before a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana. It never even met those low expectations. However, even though it was a remnant low, the idea of a landfall on Thursday in eastern Louisiana was still dead-on, as that is essentially what happened – it just won’t be recorded in history. After LaBreeze asked a question about how far inland it would get, I responded possibly into Texas. Well, that didn’t happen as it moved north earlier than I thought, but the rainfall threat certainly materialized. Overall, a very tough forecast, but numerous models did not do as good of a job as I did. *cough*GFDL*cough* I also was correct to use the SHIPS as the best possible match, though as I’ve alluded already, I went stronger than it and was wrong. While not a great forecast, this was still very decent all things considered. I give myself a B here.

Elsewhere: I predicted nothing else to develop and that’s exactly what happened. Grade A here.

Overall, my not-so-great 93L forecast and my correct predictions of no further development besides it and 94L can probably cancel each other out. It’s just as well, as the main meat should be on what could have been a big story – 94L. I’ve already talked about that forecast and the decent but not great job I did on it, so I’ll wrap up by giving myself an overall grade of a B for the week.

Current situation and models

There are two areas that models are hinting at for development this week: the Gulf of Mexico and off the west coast of Africa. The Gulf of Mexico area is none other than the remnants of TD #5, currently producing flooding over areas of the South. The Euro and GFS think this will come back offshore on Tuesday and re-develop before crawling into Texas by Thursday. The result could be some torrential, dangerous flooding the area if this is the case. As for this new African disturbance, there is quite a consensus for development later this week, on about Thursday or Friday. The general track appears to be westward to west-northwest along a strong ridge of high pressure. The intensity will, as normal, be tricky, but the general trend is intensification. A recent run of the Euro likes this to become a hurricane by at least early next week. But can it do so this week?

Also, another disturbance behind this proposed one is being picked up by models for the tail end of the week. Could it too develop?

The NOGAPS is also trying to pick up on a system developing in the western Caribbean Sea sometime this week. We’ve heard this story a multitude of times this year though, have we not?

Recent history:

Since 1995, the following storms have developed during this upcoming week:

Humberto in 1995*
Iris in 1995*
Dolly in 1996
Edouard in 1996*
Bonnie in 1998
Charley in 1998
Bret in 1999
Cindy in 1999
Chris in 2000
Debby in 2000
Chantal in 2001
Dean in 2001
Jose in 2005
Debby in 2006
Erin in 2007
Claudette in 2009

Humberto, Iris, and Edouard have asterisks as they just developed on August 22, the last day of the week. We also had the following storms since 1995 still intact coming in:

Felix in 1995
Alberto in 2000
Erika in 2003*
Danielle in 2004
Irene in 2005
Dean in 2007
Fay in 2008
Ana in 2009*
Bill in 2009

You’ll notice I also put asterisks next to Erika and Ana. That’s because they both dissipated on the August 16 – Erika due to landfall and Ana due to woefully unfavorable conditions.

Think the lid is coming off? I would not blame you at all. There were sixteen new developments this week, along with seven previously intact besides the aforementioned Erika and Ana. The number of new developments is thirteen though if you discount Humberto, Iris, and Edouard, since I’ll go over them more next week. So 23 storms total, less these five means 18 storms with full lives during the week. Plus, a good bunch of these 18 storms put together became or already were hurricanes coming into this week – 11 total.

Models are looking at the Gulf of Mexico and the west coast of Africa for development this week, so let’s take a look at each region specifically. I’ll start with the Gulf of Mexico, honing in on the developments that took place there since nothing is about to enter as an already developed cyclone. Five storms since 1995 for this week fit this bill: 1998 Charley, Bret, Jose, Erin, and Claudette. Only one of these five became a hurricane, Bret. The 1998 version of Charley was the only other one close to hurricane intensity of this batch, and even it weakened rapidly in the last hours before landfall. Also, the last storm before Bret to pull off this feat was 16 years prior in 1983, albeit a biggie: Alicia.

Now, to the west coast of Africa, and again I’m going to hone on developments as that is what we are looking at. I see six storms since 1995 fitting this bill: Edouard, Bonnie, Cindy, Chris, and the two Debby’s. Now Edouard developed into a tropical storm at the end of the week, so it will be given a little less weight than some of the others. Bonnie also moved west pretty fast toward the Bahamas by week’s end, again reducing some of its weight. The trend I’m seeing in the others is a little inconsistent. Cindy briefly became a hurricane on August 22 before re-weakening (only to intensify again later but that’s for a different time). Chris couldn’t get off the ground. 2000 Debby developed further south and became a minimal hurricane. And 2006 Debby really struggled, albeit in a poor analog to 2010.

But let’s look at one more facet to the west coast of Africa: some of the previously intact storms that had just developed at the end of the previous week, and early next-week examples (breaking a rule I usually have of waiting until next week). The last storm named Danielle (ironically) and Bill had just formed, and both became significant hurricanes this week (albeit recurving ones but still). I’ve already detailed that Humberto, Iris, and Edouard corroborate the formation of a hurricane at the end of the week, as they did so a little later. Yet another storm named Danielle, in 1998, also formed in a similar location and became a hurricane quickly on August 24 (more to come on this next week). And while it’s the only other example since 1995 I can come up with, the recent historical odds are definitely with this supposed system if the conditions are right! And one other thing, did I mention something from 1998 in this area? Isn’t that year one of the most popular analogs for this year so far, even supported by Klotzbach ang Gray?

As for the second proposed disturbance, Humberto and Iris came from consecutive disturbance, even developing on the same day! Also, we would see another tropical depression develop immediately behind Edouard in 1996 on August 23. I’ll talk more about it later, but the close proximity in dates makes this a little curious.

Finally, only one storm since 1995 has developed in the western Caribbean during this week: Dolly. Chantal is also the only other one to become a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Now Dolly was able to pull off becoming a hurricane, but Chantal came up short.

So what does this all tell us?

For the Gulf of Mexico, if TD #5 is going to re-develop there, it has the odds stacked against it bigtime. It is just too hard for storms to go from a tropical disturbance or frontal low, to a hurricane in a short timespan over just the Gulf of Mexico. Only Bret pulled it off, and it had significantly more time over water than models are predicting for the remnants of TD #5. Yes, Alicia also did the same under rather similar circumstances to TD #5, but it had a full 72 hours versus maybe 48 for this system. That doesn’t give it the greatest chance in the world to become a hurricane.

The African disturbance, if it indeed were to develop on about Thursday or so, could certainly have some potential. The fact the Colin and 93L struggled out here is not really out of the norm looking back, as the real season for this area begins about now. Edouard in 1996 will, next week, suggest that this supposed disturbance has great potential. Humberto and Iris will also say similar things in regards to intensity, and Cindy and 2000 Debby already hint at the possibility of a hurricane this upcoming week. Chris and 2006 Debby, however, struggled. 2006 was an El Nino year and will be primarily left out of the discussion, and Chris developed quite a bit further west from where this system would develop. That said, 2000 Debby will struggle itself early next week, but the odds suggest the lid is about to pop off over here. This disturbance might very well be the one to do it.

It is also not unheard of to have another disturbance develop close behind another this time of year. It happened in 1995, and we will see it again in 1996. It certainly is possible for another system to develop behind another.

As for the Caribbean, with only one development where the NOGAPS is picking up on development, this is historically not a favorable area for development. And with only one other storm total to develop in the Caribbean Sea between August 16-22, this screams of not an ideal place for such to happen, at least to me.

Back to looking ahead

Well, I’ve kind of already looked ahead a bit with the Gulf of Mexico and the west coast of Africa! I’ll still address these areas one more time, with formal predictions.

Ex-TD #5
With the Euro and GFS both agreeing that the remnants of TD #5 will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and head westward, I will agree with them. If it is going to re-develop, it will be no more than a minimal tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40-50 mph. It simply does not have enough time to develop any further than that. The flood threat, however, is very real wherever it ends up. Both the Euro and the GFS are supporting this scenario.

I predict the remnants of TD #5 will re-develop into a tropical depression on Tuesday near the coast of Louisiana. It will succeed in its bid to become a tropical storm before landfall on Wednesday near the Texas-Louisiana border, but only with maximum sustained winds of about 40-50 mph. The slow motion will cause very heavy rainfall over primarily Texas, but also Louisiana, on Wednesday through Friday. After that, the remnants of Danielle will dissipate. Confidence is 70%.

West coast of Africa, first disturbance
There is simply too much model support to not call for development of a disturbance off the African coast this week. This is also the ideal time for the Cape Verde season to begin in earnest, and as such I think that happens this week. The track forecasts also, for now, seem to indicate a general westward to west-northwest motion. The intensity will be tricky, but conditions are becoming more favorable and several storms that have developed that far east under those conditions have gone on to become hurricanes within a few days. It’s also not like Colin which had really only one or two examples since 1995 supporting a potential hurricane for the time; this one has several, and more to come that have barely even been brought up for even early next week. The Euro also even supports strong development of this system, potentially a hurricane. The track should be easy, but the intensity is the tricky part. Therefore, I am going to split this part of the forecast in two as well, accounting for anything else.

I predict a tropical depression to develop on Thursday southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. From there on out, it will move generally westward to west-northwest at an average clip, still east of the Lesser Antilles by August 22. Confidence in the development and track is 85%.

The intensity is trickier. I predict Tropical Storm Earl will come to be from this system on Friday. The storm will be a little slow to develop at first, but will start to ramp up more on Saturday and Sunday. By week’s end, we will be tracking the second hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, a C1 with maximum sustained winds of 75-85 mph. Confidence in the intensity is 50%.

West coast of Africa, second disturbance
Certainly there is a chance for development at the tail end of the week. Two examples in 1995 and 1996, however, seems like a little too small of a sample size for this time of year to use too much consideration towards. Some models still do like this system, and it could be one talked about for next week.

I do not predict this second disturbance to develop before the end of August 22. Confidence is 85%.

Western Caribbean:
Seriously, NOGAPS, we heard the western Caribbean story in late July as well. The only situation that has so far verified from this model in this location was Alex, and that time of year is very favorable for developments there. This week, however, is not. I do not see any other model looking at this further, which can only tell me one thing:

I predict no development in this area this week. Confidence is 95%.

Elsewhere:
Overall, one or two developments for the week of August 16-22 is still about average for the week. Models do not hint at anything else either.

I predict no other developments besides the aforementioned two. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Florida1118]

Once Again you wrote a Excellent post.

[sandyb]

lets hope you are correct and that one of those comes to the east coast lets say hm NC

[wx4tv]

lets hope you are correct and that one of those comes to the east coast lets say hm NC

So, you are hoping for a landfalling tropical system in NC? Where, exactly, is your home? I'd be happy to film it falling into the ocean.

[UpTheCreek]

lets hope you are correct and that one of those comes to the east coast lets say hm NC

I don't know if you're a property owner and/or have a family of your own, but my guess is NO.

wx4tv, please send me a copy, I'll break out the popcorn.

[Andrew92]

Right now, MUCH too early to predict if anything coming off Africa this week will reach anywhere in the US. I did say even the first will probably still be east of the Lesser Antilles as week's end. Let's first see what happens this week, if it develops, and then go from there.

-Andrew92

[NOLA2010]

your TD5 prediction isn't looking to good right now though

[Andrew92]

Yeah I know....the Euro and GFS both suggested that scenario around when I was writing this up. Then, of course, after it's posted, some of the Pro Mets in other threads say that those models are probably too far west.

To be fair, I also thought the HWRF solution was nuts at first! That one is looking like it is going to verify though. And I actually did a little better than halfway decent on this same system last week, grrrr!

What I'm learning, is it's not easy to know what model(s) to trust. However, I can make up for it with the African disturbance....

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

OK, let's evaluate this past week!

This past week was a mixed bag. Very bad in one area, about average in another, and very good elsewhere. Let’s look at each area separately and try to come up with the best grade for this week.

First, ex TD-5, partly just to get it over with but also because it basically kicked off the week. To sum it up bluntly, I blew this one. I predicted re-development, a tropical storm, and a landfall closer to Texas and Louisiana! Man, it didn’t even become a depression again, and its would-be landfall (if it were to count) was in eastern Louisiana. The rainfall threat was sure correct, but that’s all I can say that’s any remote silver lining for this forecast. I definitely flunked this part of the forecast, grade F.

Now let’s head to the African coast. I did predict development, and this happened. I also predicted it would take about a day from the time of the depression forming to seeing a tropical storm come out of it, and that also happened exactly to my predictions. My issues though are the timing and which one developed. I thought the first one would develop, doing so on about Thursday. The second one I thought would not be ready just yet, but it is the one of the two that ended up doing so. This had a bit of an effect on the intensify forecast as well, but like I said, the first 24 hours of intensity I also did a generally good job on. The track was also well-executed, as it has moved west-northwest – even making a little jog northwest for a bit. Overall, not a bad forecast, but not all that good either. I’ll give myself a C+ here.

In the Caribbean, the NOGAPS (again) forecast a possible development in the western part. I was adamant that this would not happen. Other models, however, began to jump onboard and try to make me a little nervous. Fortunately, this didn’t happen, and although there was a tropical wave that passed through, it never developed here. I also predicted no other development elsewhere throughout the tropics. When you combine these two together, I’d say that’s worth an A here.

So overall, I blew ex TD-5, but I also did a great job in not predicting the western Caribbean to have any development. The only other area I was also looking at was off the west coast of Africa. The forecast there was about average given the time I was making it – and trust me if you think this is easy, why don’t you try this once and see if you’re right every time! If it hadn’t been for my badly blown ex TD-5 forecast, this grade might easily have been a B or higher. But that one really brought my grade down, and although elsewhere was overall OK, I have to give myself a C- for the week.

New forecast in a just a little bit.

-Andrew92