ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Its getting there bit by bit, the convection clearly looks sheared...again (god what a season for sheared systems!) but the LLC does look like its tigthening.

I suspect recon finds enough to support an upgrade a little later...

[srainhoutx]

[Cryomaniac]

From the most recent images it looks like a sheared mess to my completely amateur and short sighted eyes.

[Stormcenter]

It already looks much better then it did when it was officially TD5. IMO

From the most recent images it looks like a sheared mess to my completely amateur and short sighted eyes.

[Cyclone1]

It already looks much better then it did when it was officially TD5. IMO

Beat me to it. ;D At least it looks like a tropical cyclone now.

[Cryomaniac]

It already looks much better then it did when it was officially TD5. IMO

From the most recent images it looks like a sheared mess to my completely amateur and short sighted eyes.

Well yes, there is that

[Stormcenter]

IMO the very latest sat. loop continues to show a system becoming better organized by the hour. Now the key is will it continue throughout the day.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[breaking wind]

EX-TD5 is going to remain EX-TD5. Tropical squalls with heavy bands of rain and thunderstorms but wind will not be a factor.

[Macrocane]

I agree, it looks more like a tropical depresison now than when it was numbered. I have been looking at the wind shear analysis and I don't find the high shear that has been mentioned:

It is between 5 kt and 20 kt of wind shear, 5 is favorable 20 is marginally permissive:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

That wind shear is weakening:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

The mid level shear is between 0 and 10 kt wich is favorable:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

Lets see what recon finds early this afternoon around 1 PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

401
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 16 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[ROCK]

401
NOUS42 KNHC 161430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 16 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

can they just send a boat out there and float some balloons?

why fly a plane into this and waster valuable resources...

[BigA]

Still looks crummy, but the trend is that of organization. Should look better as it moves westward, so long as the upper high stays stationary.

[ROCK]

you guys have got to give it time to stack. Shear is not the issue. Let the LLC drop down into the sw convection and align itself....

no one should have expected this to be a TS once getting back over water...

[Aric Dunn]

it will be interesting to see if they upgrade... at this time with its present condition i dont think they will. recon will probably find a decent LLC but the winds are barely even 25kts.. and the shear is high. unless they see a good chance the shear will decrease I think they will hold off till something changes.

[Stormcenter]

I really think many (but not me) did believe this would be a TS immediately once this hit the GOM.
It just doesn't work that way.

you guys have got to give it time to stack. Shear is not the issue. Let the LLC drop down into the sw convection and align itself....

no one should have expected this to be a TS once getting back over water...

[HurrMark]

Looks to be some kind of center...either an MLC or a poorly defined LLC...due south of Panama City Beach. I would suspect this is close to the regeneration of TD Five. It is probably a tossup of whether or not this will become Danielle...there seems to be some northerly shear (although probably not too disruptive)...and dry air off the land might be playing some impact. My guess is that this will become Danielle, although probably not more than 50 mph. If this had more time, it would probably become a hurricane, but it will likely move inland before it really can ramp up.

[Stormcenter]

It won't take much to be classified a TD again.

it will be interesting to see if they upgrade... at this time with its present condition i dont think they will. recon will probably find a decent LLC but the winds are barely even 25kts.. and the shear is high. unless they see a good chance the shear will decrease I think they will hold off till something changes.

[SunnyThoughts]

Radar loop showing the spin http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MOB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes