ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The LLC of ex-05L looks to be south of I-10 and DeFuniak Springs, Florida moving southward, west of Panama City, Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

this is the area where the center maybe developing based on radar and surface obs. the red circles are the observations.. the two obs to the west have a NW wind the observation to the south has a west wind and the panama city observation is from the SE effectively place the developing center withing the black circle. it is weak still and not defined but all things are point to this area.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

this is the area where the center maybe developing based on radar and surface obs. the red circles are the observations.. the two obs to the west have a NW wind the observation to the south has a west wind and the panama city observation is from the SE effectively place the developing center withing the black circle. it is weak still and not defined but all things are point to this area.

You're looking at the mid-level circulation, the low-level circulation is still overland, south of DeFuniak Springs, Florida.

[Steve]

RTMA would +/- agree
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... d_loul.gif

(Further info http://www.docstoc.com/docs/2411953/Rea ... ysis-(RTMA)---A-First-Step-Towards-an)

[Aric Dunn]

this is the area where the center maybe developing based on radar and surface obs. the red circles are the observations.. the two obs to the west have a NW wind the observation to the south has a west wind and the panama city observation is from the SE effectively place the developing center withing the black circle. it is weak still and not defined but all things are point to this area.

You're looking at the mid-level circulation, the low-level circulation is still overland, south of DeFuniak Springs, Florida.

notice i said developing ..

[MiamiHurricanes10]

this is the area where the center maybe developing based on radar and surface obs. the red circles are the observations.. the two obs to the west have a NW wind the observation to the south has a west wind and the panama city observation is from the SE effectively place the developing center withing the black circle. it is weak still and not defined but all things are point to this area.

You're looking at the mid-level circulation, the low-level circulation is still overland, south of DeFuniak Springs, Florida.

notice i said developing ..

Nah, the MLC is in the process of sucking up the LLC. They should be stacking tonight into tomorrow morning.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with Aric, I've been all over the pressure and wind obs all around including my own place and I live about 20 miles SSW of Defuniak Springs and I've got NW winds picking up now and it is that way all around here until you get just to the east of PC where the winds are out of the east and pressures are lowest.

The low is now moving offshore Panama City.

[Aric Dunn]

Nah, the MLC is in the process of sucking up the LLC. They should be stacking tonight into tomorrow morning.

there are no observations over land that point any defined LLC its a broad area of low pressure and a surface circ is not likely to tighten up over land and secondly where there is convection there is convergence and where you see surface circs develop, reform tighten up.. I could be wrong but there is nothing point to anything over land that you can call a LLC

[Steve]

Miami,

Real Time RTMA link I posted valid 01UTC shows 10 meter wind downscaled. Unless it's a lower-mid level spin (and admittedly I don't fully understand downscaling interpretations of RUC presented by RTMA, I'm just posting them because they're availble), it is showing up in the Gulf just off of Walton & Bay Counties

Edit to include chart

[Dean4Storms]

Here's the Obs, note Panama City is the lowest pressure and is now steady. All the others are rising over land including mine!!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

My Station Obs and I'm SSW of Defuniak Springs like I said by about 20 miles.

Pressure here rising.......

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Nah, the MLC is in the process of sucking up the LLC. They should be stacking tonight into tomorrow morning.

there are no observations over land that point any defined LLC its a broad area of low pressure and a surface circ is not likely to tighten up over land and secondly where there is convection there is convergence and where you see surface circs develop, reform tighten up.. I could be wrong but there is nothing point to anything over land that you can call a LLC

Ok, it's a broad LLC. It appears to be halfway on emerging.

[Dean4Storms]

We're starting to get re-firing of convection around that low south of Panama City so I would lay odds by in the morning at some point this is a TD. The big question tonight now is how far south does it go and how deep does it get?

[Stormcenter]

Well radar definitely looks interesting this evening.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

looking better.. offshore..

[Steve]

Can the proverbial snowball get rolling downhill?

(Enhanced IR loops)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-jsl.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[brunota2003]

Is it giving us a thumbs down sign? (look on rainbow, the rb loop)

I see the convection to the west is rapidly diminishing like I thought it would, right on schedule too. Now convection is blossoming over where we all believe is the forming low level center (per radar and obs). We are approaching DMIN, conditions are pretty favorable, it is back over water, and it is moving away from land. Yikes, anyone?

[Ivanhater]

[Raininfyr]

Rumbling thunder here in the Baton Rouge area. Projection of about 4 inches in the Capitol City by Wednesday. Soggy days ahead.

[Sanibel]

Amazing outflow in the southern quadrant before it even got over water.