ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ikester]

I'd imagine the first cone will cover quite a bit of territory. I'd say 'landfall' will be Vermilian Bay, LA with a cone stretching from Matagorda Bay, TX to MS/AL border.

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[Hurricane]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Yeah thats too bad you feel that way. It should have equal if not more weight than the east bias GFS...but we all have our favorites....

[southerngale]

There is a models thread, guys.

[srainhoutx]

I think everyone has been thrown for a 'loop'...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 853W, 20, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Not in the water yet but very close.

[rockyman]

the "center" is now south of I-10

[KWT]

We've been getting it good here for the last couple of hours. Much needed rain.

Yeah Mobile is on the eastern side of quite a sizeable blow up of convection, rainfall totals look to be quite impressive already and thats before the system develops or gets to water.

Flooding will be an issue, radar estimates over the past day are upto 2-4 inches pretty widely and some parts are a good higher then that as well and thats only going to increase perhaps quite alot in the next 2-3 days.

[cwachal]

the black line is the outflow

the red circle is the current COC

can someone explain to me why the outflow is there??? and not around the center

I think a new center is forming in the black circle

[KWT]

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 853W, 20, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Not in the water yet but very close.

Much faster then the HWRF predicted on its 18z run, quite obvious this one has relocated good call from Aric!

[srainhoutx]

Sunset...

[TexWx]

Cw.

I've been wondering that for the past 4 hours.
Sure looks to me like that area of convection would surely take over, or split away.

[hurricanehunter69]

A very strong Storm/squall line is passing through the Bay St Louis MS area right now! Very intense! It has those wicked fast moving low clouds and horizontal winds blowin at about 40 to 50mph! It appears we have a very healthy system developing right over us. We may have to deal with serious TC threat if these ideal dynamics persist.....?

[ROCK]

man what a presentation...Kat was right about that outflow. looks like a landfalling TS..

[Cryomaniac]

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/9779/vislt.jpg


the black line is the outflow

the red circle is the current COC

can someone explain to me why the outflow is there??? and not around the center

I think a new center is forming in the black circle

Hmm. That looks odd. If a new centre forms under the black circle then wouldn't this be TD6 not TD5?

[cwachal]

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/9779/vislt.jpg


the black line is the outflow

the red circle is the current COC

can someone explain to me why the outflow is there??? and not around the center

I think a new center is forming in the black circle

Hmm. That looks odd. If a new centre forms under the black circle then wouldn't this be TD6 not TD5?

no because it is still the same piece of energy

[hurricaneCW]

Well if that were the new center, than we wouldn't be looking at a developing TD/TS due to proximity to land. Based on the loops, I'm pretty certain that the center remains well east of that location indicated. Once it hits the water, we'll see the missing pieces fill in.

[Cryomaniac]

no because it is still the same piece of energy

That makes sense, but I was under the impression it had to be the same LLC, or at least the same circulation.

[shell70]

Is there any chance we could have two centers form and make two different TD?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Is there any chance we could have two centers form and make two different TD?

No.

[Steve]

IMHO that energy is to the west of the center and is being enhanced by and is part of both the trough that has dropped pretty far south and the general instability with TD #5's remnants. It's two features in close proximity and probably related, but the center we've been tracking is pretty far east of there. I'm not saying a mid-level vortex couldn't spin out of that, but it's not a dominant feature. It's cold cloudtops showing a bubble due to the angle of the sun most likely. FWIW, nasty cell just passed through here with some low black clouds and a hint of circulation. Lightning and loud thunder accompanied.