ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah indeed Macrocane looks like this one is a great contender for redevelopment IMO...

[perk]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

HouTXmetro i was wondering that very same thing.

[southerngale]

12z is not upper texas coast...FWIW

He's probably referring to this post, but it looks more like SW LA.

84 HR GFS SE TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looks like Isabel...well thats a new one, a weak low being compared with a major
hurricane

Good to see this one in the active forum again where it belongs!

Anyway something does look like its getting going down there...

LOL, not trying to compare it in that sense, I meant the outflow. Check the image of Isabel below and check a visible image of ex-05L. Don't both of their outflow channels look similar.

(Large image so I'll just link it)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/Hurricane_Isabel_14_sept_2003_1445Z.jpg

[curtadams]

The only models that foresee a TS are the very bullish CMC and HWRF models. Everything else sees something, but mostly the kinds of weak storms the NHC normally dithers about even giving a number to (broad lows, barely offshore, weak winds). I'd agree the chances of a TC are a little higher than the NHC's estimate but I think odds are very against a TS.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Bending features developing on the western side of the COC with the daytime heating. This thing is going to pop when it hits the GOM.

[KWT]

Really Curtadams, I'd say the chances are pretty decent, sure the models show generally a weak system but really there isn't much difference between a 30kts depression like the GFDL has and a 40kts system the HWRF has, even just stronger convection can make the difference really!

[wxman57]

12z is not upper texas coast...FWIW

He's probably referring to this post, but it looks more like SW LA.

84 HR GFS SE TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

I'm plotting surface pressures down to 1/4 millibar. GFS has it inland near Grand Isle, LA and passing north of Lafayette and well north of Lake Charles. At 84 hrs, it's at 31.4N/94.9W, just west of Lufkin. I guess we could call it east-central TX. Maybe close enough to us to give us some rain. Of course, this assumes a perfect GFS forecast, and the GFS has never been wrong with a tropical system...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Upper level conditions will be prime for intensification. Dry air will be minimal and SSTs will be plenty warm. All it needs is a day or two to become a tropical storm. Plus, it could be making landfall over the Louisiana marsh, that should help it, sorta' like the everglades did to Katrina. (No I'm not comparing this to Katrina, it's just an example of how marsh land can help a tropical cyclone).

[Wx_Warrior]

I think he ment that was when it was in SETX, not landfall SETX. Anyhow, it's super dry here, but don't need any flood event.

[Dean4Storms]

Here just east of Destin beginning to get heavy rain and the first lightning strikes I've heard from this yet since yesterday morning. Winds are also picking up!!!

[Dean4Storms]

The only models that foresee a TS are the very bullish CMC and HWRF models. Everything else sees something, but mostly the kinds of weak storms the NHC normally dithers about even giving a number to (broad lows, barely offshore, weak winds). I'd agree the chances of a TC are a little higher than the NHC's estimate but I think odds are very against a TS.

You only have to have winds of 40mph to have a TS and with SST's near 90 and very favorable UL conditions along with a good structure already spinning and in place this could easily reach 40mph sustained TS status in 2 days IMO!!

Actually 2 1/2 to 3 days over water if you go by the HWRF landfall prediction in LA!!

[KWT]

Upper level conditions will be prime for intensification. Dry air will be minimal and SSTs will be plenty warm. All it needs is a day or two to become a tropical storm.

Yeah that would easily be enough time for a 35-45kts system to ramp up, esp one that has a pretty decent MLC and a LLC reflection still present.

Also I agree, it looks pretty good on the radar, perhaps the MLC is a little south of where the models were expecting right now.

[Steve]

>>Bending features developing on the western side of the COC with the daytime heating. This thing is going to pop when it hits the GOM.

Looks to me like a combination of the afternoon heat and warm swig of plentiful Gulf Water is juicing it up as it gets closer.

[KWT]

You only have to have winds of 40mph to have a TS and with SST's near 90 and very favorable UL conditions along with a good structure already spinning and in place this could easily reach 40mph sustained TS status in 2 days IMO!!

Actually 2 1/2 to 3 days over water if you go by the HWRF landfall prediction in LA!!

As Humberto proved you actually only really need 24hrs for a hurricane in the right set-up yet alone a minimal TS!

[srainhoutx]

Big view...

[KWT]

It sort of looks like a half system there srainhoutx!

With the system being so close to the system we will be able to get a good idea of what this system is doing in terms of even the lower levels.

Also good to have recon flying into this again soon!

[Dean4Storms]

90 pages!! I think this maybe a Storm2K record for a Tropical Depression!!!

[cycloneye]

90 pages!! I think this maybe a Storm2K record for a Tropical Depression!!!

Nope. Remember,the thread was merged with the one at Talking tropics. If the merging didn't occured,it would be at 75.

[ColinDelia]

It sort of looks like a half system

Again (like when it in Southeast gulf)