ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

451
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Nimbus]

Once the center remnants drop into the gulf it will be pumping that moisture up over the gulf coast.
Could be some real flooding problems at the very least. They give it only a 30% chance of redeveloping in the next 48 hours but the heavy convection sure gets your attention.

[KWT]

30% seems way too low given the model agreement of redevelopment in the very near future (we are only talking 24-48hrs, I'd take the models that close) and I can see quite a rapid climb of the development odds once this one is back over water...

Either way going to be very wet as you can already see with the convection that is developing.

[Steve]

HWRF is a little slower with the evolution as noted by the 72 hour forecast valid 12z today. Based on the different levels, it appears to have TD #5 fairly stacked by then. I don't necessarily agree with the model (I have no idea) but slower movement should mean more rain for coastal sections east of here. Lots more rain even if the model underplays precip.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

GHM is a little faster and weaker getting a bit further west by 72 hours (valid 12z)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

As for the operationals, Late Cycle 06z all tracks made the water whereas the early 12 did not
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Early Cycle Intensity Guidance (12z) shows TD/TS with only SHIPS, SHF5 and AVNI getting to TS strength.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Not making any judgments on any of that stuff, just throwing out some more obscure projections.

[wxman57]

I'd give it 70-80% of becoming at least TD Five tomorrow. More likely than not TS Danielle before it moves inland into south LA on Tuesday. But the main threat will be heavy rainfall, not wind.

[Steve]

Thx 57. I haven't checked out the 12z QPF but I'd assume 5-10 and maybe more offshore in the 5 day. Yep. Isolated + no doubt.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[Comanche]

I'd give it 70-80% of becoming at least TD Five tomorrow. More likely than not TS Danielle before it moves inland into south LA on Tuesday. But the main threat will be heavy rainfall, not wind.

And not much high water/swell action/surge due to proxiity and origin point I take it. Don't you have a deal with the weather gods? If so, can you send some rain our way, PLEASE!?!?!

[sphelps8681]

What kind of rain will we see in Beaumont/Lumberton (Southeast Texas area) if any?

[KWT]

Yeah I agree wxman57 this one has a good chance of developing and thats the sort of range I'd put redevelopment at...

If it does get upgraded, then I see no reason why this can't get to 40-45kts before landfall, rainfall probably will be the main issue unless this pulls an Humberto...but the wind clearly will make it feel like a poor day with the rain.

[rockyman]

HWRF shows Danielle:

[KWT]

Looks about right to me that HWRF...funnily enough that looks exactly the same as the HWRF progged for the first time it was a depression!

Mental stuff!

[rockyman]

GFDL (12z) keeps it weaker:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 849W, 20, 1013, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Moving south.

AL, 05, 2010081512, , BEST, 0, 318N, 849W, 20, 1013, LO,
AL, 05, 2010081518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 849W, 20, 1013, LO

[Steve]

Yeah, GFDL shows 1007mb whereas the HWRF gets down to 990 and has it intensifying at landfall. While I agree with that based on the last 3 systems we saw, I think a compromise between the two is more likely - tighter and stronger than depicted by the GFDL, and looser and weaker than depicted by the HWRF. <--- That assumes they have the track into SELA correct. If not, then obviously they were both wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

strength in this case will be dependent of how far off the coast it gets... the environment seems to be quite conducive or development and strengthening.

[Vortmax1]

What kind of rain will we see in Beaumont/Lumberton (Southeast Texas area) if any?

Here is the 5 day QPF:

[KWT]

GFDL looks like just a 30kts tropical depression into landfall.

I suspect the HWRF is closer to the mark with a 40kts system heading into LA given the strong convection a little to the SE and the decent conditions aloft for development.

[sphelps8681]

Thanks alot Vortmax1. Any rain is good rain here. Besides fishing as not been that great, to hot.

What kind of rain will we see in Beaumont/Lumberton (Southeast Texas area) if any?

Here is the 5 day QPF:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Convection on the increase over the Panhandle now.

[wxman57]

The "problem" a few days ago was a combination of wind shear and lack of significant convection. But upper-level winds look to be not a problem now, and neither is the convection. Good outflow channel to the south. Once the MLC and weak LLC rotate offshore, I think it'll quickly organize along the coast. Maybe 40-45 kts when it reaches LA Tuesday. It just has the look of something that's going to develop now.

Still not sure we'll get anything out of it in SE TX, though.