There is no ex-TD 5 discussion under the active systems board.
Shouldn't this be there as this is an Invest?
ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
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Aric Dunn
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we all must realize that depending on how far south the systems pushes before turning will help determine both how far west and well ... the strength. there seems to be the potential for some decent intensification if it can organize quickly and the upper high stays over top of it...
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re:
Well, the latest TWO states that there's a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours but has it been declared an Invest?Vortmax1 wrote:There is no ex-TD 5 discussion under the active systems board.
Shouldn't this be there as this is an Invest?
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srainhoutx
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System - EX-TD5 Thread
Latest...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
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Dean4Storms
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Winds are beginning to pick up once again at the buoy's offshore.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
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Dean4Storms
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ColinDelia
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Strong agreement on track now and probably enough to suggest a re-upgraded is highly possible, probably 60-70% at the moment I'd guess.
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Dean4Storms
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Dean4Storms
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Re:
ColinDelia wrote:Winds still mostly westerly in the panhandle
Actually my winds on my weather station have been anywhere from west to north all morning here just east of Destin.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6
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srainhoutx
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System - EX-TD5 Thread
Watching carefully for any MCV that may spin up. Certainly brings back memories of a mid August back in 83...
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Vortmax1
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If it makes it offshore Apalachicola before turning west the WNW contour of the Panhandle will put this offshore by at least 75-100 miles.
That location would most likely be a favorable area for further intensification given the current conditions Dean.
It could possibly make it over the threshold to a weak Hurricane...I say possibly.
Any further off-shore increases that likelihood I would think.
What does everyone else say?
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I'd certainly be on board for a 40-45kts TS if it comes off and gets that far offshore but still not 100% sure of what will happen.
I've got few doubts though that this one redevelops and probably gets stronger then the first time round.
I've got few doubts though that this one redevelops and probably gets stronger then the first time round.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
I was thinking the same thing srainhoutx. Not that this will become another Alicia but it does bring back the memories.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormcenter
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System - EX-TD5 Thread
The area of convection in the N. Central GOM continues to sustain itself and remains very impressive.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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ColinDelia
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Re: Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:ColinDelia wrote:Winds still mostly westerly in the panhandle
Actually my winds on my weather station have been anywhere from west to north all morning here just east of Destin.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6
I should have been more specific. I meant in the panhandle directly south of where the best track position has been. Say Marianna.
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GFS ensembles suggest something close to 36hrs over water and if that happens then it sure does have a dceent shot at developing IMO...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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451
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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