ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[HeeBGBz]

The circulation look like its about into the Florida panhandle. Or am I mistaken? Is the convection in the gulf likely to enhance or hinder TD5?

[Stormcenter]

Well it looks like some sort of circulation is headed to the FL. panhandle. If this is the case then things may get cooking a lot early
then anyone anticipated. Honestly I don't like what I'm seeing this morning.

The circulation look like its about into the Florida panhandle. Or am I mistaken? Is the convection in the gulf likely to enhance or hinder TD5?

[Aric Dunn]

Well it looks like some sort of circulation is headed to the FL. panhandle. If this is the case then things may get cooking a lot early
then anyone anticipated. Honestly I don't like what I'm seeing this morning.

The circulation look like its about into the Florida panhandle. Or am I mistaken? Is the convection in the gulf likely to enhance or hinder TD5?

there is a good chance that if the convection off the coast becomes more organized and maintains then any circulation would likely redevelop off the coast since the circulation over land is broad.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the circulation in south Alabama is quickly dropping south now towards the Florida panhandle and then offshore. It's almost as if the convection firing up in the gulf is pulling it now. This will be very interesting to watch unfold and could be quite a trouble maker rainfall wise if the GFS verifies. Homegrown on the way!

[ROCK]

that didnt take long....I wonder how long that convection can maintain today or does it poof tonight....that MLC is moving down pretty quick now and should be off the FL panhandle later tonight.....IMO

[LSU2001]

Yeah, right about the GA.FLA.Alabama corner it appears that there is some type of circulation. may be mid level but what I am seeing is not near columbus Ga. like some posters are pointing out. The center of the overall low may be further north but there is some definite spin almost to the panhandle.
tim

[Portastorm]

Well, if the GFS verifies, you folks in SE Louisiana should feel free to send the rain about 500 miles to the west. SSTs are at all-time high levels in the pools of ROCK and srainhoutx as well as in my little fish pond in the backyard.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, recon will be flying tommorow afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 15 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[Pearl River]

We've had enough here in Pearl River to last a couple of weeks. I can throw a line out my back door and haul in a few fish. The problem is, I'm about 3 miles from the river. I'll be glad to let you, ROCK and srainhoutx have some rain.

[KatDaddy]

From looking at the satellite and radar loop the circulation looks to be over the FLA Panhandle however WXman57 surface obs show the low pressure center much further N. It will be interesting to see if the low center attempts to form more S later today.

[F-dubWxGuy]

What is that big burst of convection south east of La. off the Mississippi gulf coast? It that related to ex-td5 or is this burst simply daily thunderstorms? Also could we see the center relocate to an offshore position near the convection?

Looks like what would be a feeder band if this were out in the water. Since the center is on land it's producing most of the convection. I suppose a relocation is possible, but the models are predicting very heavy rain offshore without a relocation.

According to the NWS Mobile/Pensacola, the large area of convection is development ahead of a shortwave trough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING WE NOTE A UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WITH A
SOUTHBOUND SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT A TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND WE EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THIS FORCING MECHANISM SLOWLY
MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SOME MOVING SLOW ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

[redfish1]

is it expected to track towards SETX?

[Portastorm]

is it expected to track towards SETX?

GFS says no, Euro says yes.

[srainhoutx]

Latest surface obs...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

GHCC satellite images suggest that whatever is left of the low/mid level circulation of ex-05L is currently placed over southeastern Alabama and moving slowly southeastward. Should emerge fully by tonight.

[Kludge]

Hey peeps, recon will be flying tommorow afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 15 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Fly? If it's on the Alabama coast, would they need to leave the runway in order to measure the pressure/wind?

[Stormcenter]

I think that's pretty obvious even on this IR loop. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

GHCC satellite images suggest that whatever is left of the low/mid level circulation of ex-05L is currently placed over southeastern Alabama and moving slowly southeastward. Should emerge fully by tonight.

[Sanibel]

I wonder how far that shortwave trough will push the front?


The feature has obvious formation to it so once it hits water it should have an easy time redeveloping. That would be something if we got a second wave of rain from the same system.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

84 HR GFS SE TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

84 HR GFS SE TX

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

Came around to the EURO's take there!