ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[ROCK]

HPC: Update...

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY...BUT OUR COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/06 UTC DGEX ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX.

we need the rain badly.....my pool is running about 92f.......I hope it doesnt spin up a LLC in the backyard.....

[srainhoutx]

HPC: Update...

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY...BUT OUR COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/06 UTC DGEX ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX.

we need the rain badly.....my pool is running about 92f.......I hope it doesnt spin up a LLC in the backyard.....

That's cooler than the 95 I've got! The 12Z NAM sure wants to push this way S of Pensacola before turn back to the WNW.

[ROCK]

the 0z EURO is more south into TX....with whatever is left of TD5..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 500!!step/

[Aric Dunn]

why is this thread back down here ??

[srainhoutx]

why is this thread back down here ??

Until advisories are written again if they do so, is then official and this thread goes back to Active Storms/invests Forum.

[LSU2001]

What is that big burst of convection south east of La. off the Mississippi gulf coast? It that related to ex-td5 or is this burst simply daily thunderstorms? Also could we see the center relocate to an offshore position near the convection?
Thanks,
tim

[Aric Dunn]

why is this thread back down here ??

Until advisories are written again if they do so, is then official and this thread goes back to Active Storms/invests Forum.

but its an invest ...

[Stormcenter]

I was going to post the same thing about the
convection in the N.GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

but its an invest ...

There are any numbers assigned from 90-99L for this right now. But if they have a 95L up,then we move to Active Storms/invests forum.

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't it be 05L once again and not 95L?

[Dean4Storms]

Thank God all that deep convection stayed offshore this morning, Wow!

[Stormcenter]

Jeff Master's from Weather Underground feels this has a 40% of becoming TD5 or whatever
by Tuesday.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1577

[cycloneye]

Wouldn't it be 05L once again and not 95L?

I only was posting an example to our friend Aric.

[curtadams]

What is that big burst of convection south east of La. off the Mississippi gulf coast? It that related to ex-td5 or is this burst simply daily thunderstorms? Also could we see the center relocate to an offshore position near the convection?

Looks like what would be a feeder band if this were out in the water. Since the center is on land it's producing most of the convection. I suppose a relocation is possible, but the models are predicting very heavy rain offshore without a relocation.

[Pearl River]

AL, 05, 2010081512, , BEST, 0, 318N, 849W, 20, 1013, LO,

[Aric Dunn]

but its an invest ...

There are any numbers assigned from 90-99L for this right now. But if they have a 95L up,then we move to Active Storms/invests forum.

its maintains 05L which it has on NRL and the NHC calls it the remnants ... guess really does not matter where the thread is at .. but I was just curious..

[CrazyC83]

but its an invest ...

There are any numbers assigned from 90-99L for this right now. But if they have a 95L up,then we move to Active Storms/invests forum.

its maintains 05L which it has on NRL and the NHC calls it the remnants ... guess really does not matter where the thread is at .. but I was just curious..

If it gets back to Code Orange or higher then IMO it should be moved back, and essentially treated as 05L.Invest...

[srainhoutx]

guess really does not matter where the thread is at .. but I was just curious..

There was some staff discussion concerning this since last Thursday. And you are currect, it really doesn't matter in the 'grand scheme of things'. Moving on.

[Cyclone1]

I'm pretty impressed by it this morning. To be honest, I was never sold on the redevelopment idea until now.

[Stormcenter]

After lookng at visible satellite loop IMO I think the burst in the
GOM is related to ex-TD5.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html