ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[HeeBGBz]

Does this have to get back over water before it can be an invest again?

[cycloneye]

Ok question....has a storm system ever gone onto land. stop back strack back into the ocean and became a storm or will this be a first IF it does at all happen?

Ivan in 2004.

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate the very weak low center (1013mb and 5-10 kt wind) is located over western Georgia, about 200 miles from the Gulf northeast of Columbus. You can keep track of it with surface obs here:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

Most likely, it'll move south near the coast and drift westward on Monday/Tuesday, enhancing rain across southern AL/MS/LA before turning back northward. Might be able to reach SE TX before it turns back north and gets picked up by the approaching trof/front. Development chances appear to be low, mostly because it probably won't be offshore enough.

[StormingB81]

Ok question....has a storm system ever gone onto land. stop back strack back into the ocean and became a storm or will this be a first IF it does at all happen?

Ivan in 2004.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Thank you! I thought it was odd if it where to go inland then back over waters then back onto land..yes I know it has happend before like if it where to go through florida then into the gulf..I am talking about like this one headed into the coast and backing up..thanks again for the answer

Edited to remove [IMG] tags.. wxman57

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[quote="Frank P"]Interesting how the northern GOM convection has been on the increase all morning...[/quote

Frank,
What I find really interesting about that is last night on our local weather the ocm ran their in house model(Titan model?) that showed the convection developing first thing this morning. More importantly also showed a low developing in the gulf south of Tallahassee and really spinning up as it moved slowly across the northern gulf. Said it depicted a strong tropical storm that had a good 24 hrs over water to get cranking. Just something to watch for.

[gulf701]

For those who do not know the area and radar coverage, the Tallahassee radar that dixiebreeze posted was down can be subsituded with the Northwest Florida Radar (Eglin AFB radar).

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081512, , BEST, 0, 318N, 849W, 20, 1013, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[rockyman]

Look what models are running again!

6z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

6z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[duris]

Updated New Orleans AfD around 530 says low around Montgomery, slightly north of where models indicate. They expect 20% chances to rise due to very favorable environment (minus body of water). Don't seem to favor GFS or Euro solution. Concern is heavy rain with the saturated grounds we already have.

[lostsole]

Do those models have it looping again at the end back to the Gulf?

[srainhoutx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the models are too far S with this disturbance already.

[mpic]

Is there any chance that the High pressure over the TX coast will move and allow some of that rain to come here? My ground is cracked!

[dixiebreeze]

This isn't ex-TD5 anymore, it's TD5 per NHC

[wxman57]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the models are too far S with this disturbance already.

Obs showed the weak low NE of Columbus, GA at 12Z, well north of where the models initialized.

[wxman57]

This isn't ex-TD5 anymore, it's TD5 per NHC

No, it's not. They haven't reclassified it over Georgia. No advisories are being written.

[dixiebreeze]

Sorry, going by the new IR Floater designation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[srainhoutx]

Thanks wxman57. Just making sure I'm awake. Latest from the main Navy page...

[cycloneye]

Until advisories are written again if they do so, is then official and this thread goes back to Active Storms/invests Forum.

[ronjon]

Broad cyclonic turning is evident over the SE Alabama near the tri-state location - this is well south of the reported surface low. I believe this is the area to watch for development as it slowly slides off to the S or S-SE.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Alabama

[srainhoutx]

HPC: Update...

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY...BUT OUR COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/06 UTC DGEX ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX.