ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

ECM still suggests a very close call with this one, it really will be a 50-50 type set-up as to whether it manages to get over water again.

[wxman57]

Good agreement in all the models now in keeping the residual vorticity on or very near the coast next week. That's encouraging. Just more rain for the Gulf Coast, most likely. Wouldn't mind if it moved as far west as Houston, but I'm not holding my breath.

[KWT]

Yeah but thats not likely going to make much of a pratical difference to the weather anyway is it from the looks of things.

[tailgater]

Sorry KWT, I don't understand your last post. What won't make much of a difference?

[Dean4Storms]

Good agreement in all the models now in keeping the residual vorticity on or very near the coast next week. That's encouraging. Just more rain for the Gulf Coast, most likely. Wouldn't mind if it moved as far west as Houston, but I'm not holding my breath.

I can't see how Houston dodges the rain out of this one, all the models now seem to take this low westward into TX.

[KWT]

Sorry KWT, I don't understand your last post. What won't make much of a difference?

Whether it gets into the Gulf or not, the weather more or less will be the same regardless, gusty with lots and lots of rain.

[Dean4Storms]

Our MLC/vorticity shows up on this sat loop near or just NE of Montgomery, AL this morning and it appears the turn toward the SE is beginning.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

[wxman57]

Good agreement in all the models now in keeping the residual vorticity on or very near the coast next week. That's encouraging. Just more rain for the Gulf Coast, most likely. Wouldn't mind if it moved as far west as Houston, but I'm not holding my breath.

I can't see how Houston dodges the rain out of this one, all the models now seem to take this low westward into TX.

I sure can see how. After over 14" of rain the first 3 weeks of July it's been pretty dry. The ridge is holding strong over Texas. I hope the models are right in taking the remnants this far west.

[CourierPR]

Yesterday Joe Bastardi said that it still could attain storm status over land with 50-60 mph winds.

[Dean4Storms]

Yesterday Joe Bastardi said that it still could attain storm status over land with 50-60 mph winds.

I think he was saying if it gets offshore the Panhandle and restrengthens and moves westward just inland into LA as it continues westward much like Alicia did but in the opposite direction at least over water and right along the coast.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081412, , BEST, 0, 327N, 857W, 20, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Is more inland than yesterday.

[KWT]

Yeah Dean if this one gets over the water then Joe B was suspecting conditions would be ripe for development which I agree with, though not looking like the system will make it into the Gulf again now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[southerngale]

06z GFS seems to skirt the coast to Texas - dumping a lot of rain along the way.

[southerngale]

12z NAM looks weaker than the 6z.

At 72h:

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFS now running

[KFDM Meteorologist]

48 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Yeah Dean if this one gets over the water then Joe B was suspecting conditions would be ripe for development which I agree with, though not looking like the system will make it into the Gulf again now.

Don't know what you're seeing that would make you think that. The MLC appears to be now moving into West Central GA which means the EURO could be correct in bringing it offshore further east around Appalachicola.

Speed up the animation, you can clearly see it moving into GA.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[KFDM Meteorologist]

90 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[vbhoutex]

Some pretty hefty rain totals showing for SE TX/SW LA