Season over northern gulf coast.

[lonelymike]

No I'm not saying the hurricane season is over for the Northern Gulf so calm down

Had someone ask me when the hurricane season for the NGOM usually has the door shut. I said usually when the westerlies get going. Early October. But what do I know Anyone else got any thoughts or stats that could answer the question? Thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

No I'm saying the hurricane season is over for the Northern Gulf so calm down

Had someone ask me when the hurricane season for the NGOM usually has the door shut. I said usually when the westerlies get going. Early October. But what do I know Anyone else got any thoughts or stats that could answer the question? Thanks

Well all I know is that my total numbers for the entire season will continue to drop as every week passes. It is pretty amazing that there's only one area of interest on August 13th and that area is still over Africa.....

The reason I don't think nobody knows how long this season is going to last is because as Dr Jeff Masters mentioned on his blog, it's slow right now all over the entire world. So it's possible that the atmosphere won't even behave like it normally would in La Nina years and we potentially could see the tropical activity come to an end in early October. Again, I don't know if we can count on La Nina extending the season out because activity is slow globally right now, so there could be other complex atmospheric factors that are beyond our understanding that may cause the season to end in early October.....

To be fair, I think that September 1st, we will know what type of season we are going to have...Sure, those will be those that say, "I'd wait until September 15th" and those that say, "I'd wait until September 30th", lol.....but that's normal.... Just my opinion...

[StormClouds63]

Usually by October 10, the hurricane season is over for the western part of the Gulf Coast (TX, SW/CENTRAL LA). Hilda (1964) and Lili (2002) were storms from the first week in October.

Hurricane Lili? One of the only hurricanes on record to weaken at a faster rate than it intensified. Approaching trough and cooler waters thanks to Isidore were likely the reason. A big scare that didn't materialize.

As far as this season. I generally agree with ConvergenceZone's posts. It's August 13, and the Atlantic Basin is amazingly quiet. Forget the models, just look at a wide-scale tropical satellite tonight and see what (and what's not) out there. Maybe it is a worldwide atmospheric anomaly which the long-range models could not anticipate.

[MGC]

I usually start to relax the after the first week of October.....but Ida last season kind of threw a kink into that theory.....Opal hit in early Oct......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

StormClouds63, you make some good points....What once was speculation about a slower season may turn out to be a reality in a little over 2 weeks, unless an abrupt switch turns on and the tropics explode. It can still happen, but time is a tickin....

[Steve]

Matthew '04 hit Terrebonne Parish on October 10th. That's one of the later storms I can recall. It was minimal but we got 5-6" of rain in Jefferson.

[sunny]

This has been a while - but there was Juan in 1985
Hurricane JUAN (26 OCT-01 NOV)
Storm - Max Winds: 75 Min Pres: 971 Category: 1