ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

It should make an eastward jog before it turns southward from what I see.

Yes, it should continue to drift eastward or east-northeastward before being kicked towards the south. I'm expecting it to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico between Pensacola and Panama City on Monday.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Very impressive outflow channels continuously being depicted by the GFS when ex-05L re-emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS 200mb Forecast, Day 4:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Maybe just maybe the GFS might get it right this time around. By that I mean it has been showing a nice developed, strong system for the last few days and it has been alluded to feedback problems. From everything I have seen so far conditions looks a whole lot better this go around, IF THIS CAN MAKE IT BACK IN THE GULF.

[Macrocane]

I don't think it's a convective feedback problem because the GFS is not alone with the redevlopment of TD 5, the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET are in agreement although if the scenario verifies the GFS will have a very good achievment becuase it was the first model to see it.

[cycloneye]

Yes, you are seeing right. Best Track continues to track it.

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081400, , BEST, 0, 322N, 870W, 20, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, you are seeing right. Best Track continues to track it.

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081400, , BEST, 0, 322N, 870W, 20, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Well there's our turn more to the NE, now to see if it begins a trek more eastward then SE. This is expected to loop around, not just stop and begin moving southward from what I understand.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't think it's a convective feedback problem because the GFS is not alone with the redevlopment of TD 5, the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET are in agreement although if the scenario verifies the GFS will have a very good achievment becuase it was the first model to see it.

That is my point. Earlier this week the GFS runs were noted but not given much credit saying it was over blown due to feedback issues. Now that all the other models are showing it as well, credit should be given where it is due, if it verifies.

[wxman57]

Obs indicate the LLC is now gone and the MLC is at least 250 miles to the WNW moving northward across NE Louisiana. That's a good sign. The more torn apart it gets, the less the chance of redevelopment.

[Ivanhater]

Seems that is what the models were showing anyway. Loses the surface low for a couple days then the vorticity increases over Eastern Alabama and Georgia and forms a new surface low as it drops south. That's what the models advertise and what I'm looking for. Never thought it would keep the old low the entire time..

[thetruesms]

Obs indicate the LLC is now gone and the MLC is at least 250 miles to the WNW moving northward across NE Louisiana. That's a good sign. The more torn apart it gets, the less the chance of redevelopment.

I'd rather not look stupid as I pretty strongly pooh-pooh'd the possibility in a product earlier this week when it was just the GFS and I was wondering about feedback issues. But as things held together reasonably well and other models started to hop on, I've been getting a bit more concerned about it.

[Dean4Storms]

Obs indicate the LLC is now gone and the MLC is at least 250 miles to the WNW moving northward across NE Louisiana. That's a good sign. The more torn apart it gets, the less the chance of redevelopment.

It did some fancy movement then according to the NWS out of Mobile at 4pm today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS
EVIDENT IN RADAR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF BREWTON ALABAMA. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF WAS STRETCHING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[StormClouds63]

From Lake Charles NWS:

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND THE UKMET...CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 BACK INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO SE TX/SW LA. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH ANY SFC REFLECTION
THAT RESULTS...WITH CONSENSUS TODAY SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW SKIRTING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY AND ENTERING THE UPPER TX COAST ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES LOWERED TUE-THU IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP INTO THE AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS is much further south and looks a bit weaker on the vort through 36 hours. Before had it in north central Alabama..never makes it further north than Southern Alabama this time

[Ivanhater]

54 hours

[ROCK]

moving west at 90hrs

in SW LA at 108hr,,,being picked up....never really makes it back into the GOM though...maybe slightly but not enough to amount to anything...

[MGC]

It is possible....Allison sat on SE TX for a few days then drifted back over the GOM and came ashore in La. NHC said it was sub tropical when it hit La but just looking at the radar loop would have fooled me.....Keep an eye on it till it all evaporates......MGC

[Ivanhater]

06z NAM

[southerngale]

I was busy or gone much of the day/night and hadn't had a chance to look at this very well. I'm surprised that just about every model seems to show some sort of closed low and does something with it, somewhere along the GOM. I haven't seen the 0z EURO yet.

More of the 06z NAM

[meebo]

Will keep an eye on it for future development.

[southerngale]

0z Euro at 72h







0z Euro at 96h