What is the future of this season?

[Florida1118]

A lot of forecasters are really banking on a ramp up starting August 20th. The Atlantic would literally have to turn on like a light switch in order to meet their expectations. It's already August 12th, we're very close to the heart of the season and there is nothing on the horizon. I wonder what excuse the forecasters will have when it's August 20-25th and everything is as still as the night.

Thats still 8 days away. and no offense but seriously whats your excuse for hating forcasters? They spent there time in college and know more than most of us. No one is perfect and neither are forecast. They try their best and you really seem to hate everything they say or do.

[KWT]

A lot of forecasters are really banking on a ramp up starting August 20th. The Atlantic would literally have to turn on like a light switch in order to meet their expectations. It's already August 12th, we're very close to the heart of the season and there is nothing on the horizon. I wonder what excuse the forecasters will have when it's August 20-25th and everything is as still as the night.

Things can change overnight hurricanecw I've seen it happen over and over again and no reason why it can't happen this time...indeed the models are strongly hinting at a decent wave coming out at 192hrs from Africa that would have a shout at developing a little down the line probably.

I just wonder what people on this board would do if we got to September 1st with nothing more like we did in 1961...gosh all the calls of a busted season would come out...and then made to look stupid by a monster September...

[Tropics Guy]

Things can change real quick in the tropics, it may be quiet for the moment but things will ramp up shortly IMO. SST's are nearing their peak, SAL has relaxed, the TUTT & ULL's are forecasted to retreat going forward, & MJO is entering the wet phase. Don't know if the Atlantic will meet the predicted #'s as forecasted by the Pro's, but surely there will be an uptick in activity soon based on the forementioned reasons & climo history.

TG

[StormClouds63]

Here is the link to the latest MJO.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly_1.gif

I'm guessing it's moving east to west? If so, we should know by the end of this month whether the season is really about to get going, or if what we've seen so far is indicative of the rest of 2010 season.

Is it the consensus of the posters that the traditional September 10 peak of the season could actually be 10-14 days later since we are in a La Nina pattern?

[Portastorm]

MJO moves west to east, not east to west.

[KWT]

stormcloud...its not so much the peak shifts, its just the peak goes on for a good deal longer so rather then maybe the season ending towards the back end of September, we may see the peak period carry on from the 20th August till the 20th October or maybe even slightly longer then that. Thats typical of a La Nina season.

This season reminds me so much of the England football team. We have on paper a superb team, and the indivdual players are amongst the best in thier position, but for whatever reason they can't gel and play as a team...

This season is the same, for whatever reason despite having some great aspects, the whole thing isn't gelling for whatever reason and is underperforming.

[StormClouds63]

stormcloud...its not so much the peak shifts, its just the peak goes on for a good deal longer so rather then maybe the season ending towards the back end of September, we may see the peak period carry on from the 20th August till the 20th October or maybe even slightly longer then that. Thats typical of a La Nina season.

This season reminds me so much of the England football team. We have on paper a superb team, and the indivdual players are amongst the best in thier position, but for whatever reason they can't gel and play as a team...

This season is the same, for whatever reason despite having some great aspects, the whole thing isn't gelling for whatever reason and is underperforming.

KWT:

You know you're stuff, and I enjoy your posts. Are you still thinking many re-curves and Caribbean low-riders ... like 2007? Thanks also to Portastorm ... didn't realize the MJO moved west to east. Learned something new.

[thetruesms]

stormcloud...its not so much the peak shifts, its just the peak goes on for a good deal longer so rather then maybe the season ending towards the back end of September, we may see the peak period carry on from the 20th August till the 20th October or maybe even slightly longer then that. Thats typical of a La Nina season.

This season reminds me so much of the England football team. We have on paper a superb team, and the indivdual players are amongst the best in thier position, but for whatever reason they can't gel and play as a team...

This season is the same, for whatever reason despite having some great aspects, the whole thing isn't gelling for whatever reason and is underperforming.

I hate to laugh at the expense of your national pride, but what an analogy!

[KWT]

Yeah I thought about that the other night whilst watching the England vs Hungrey game!

Well as I had expected the models are seeing a ramp-up between the 20-25th of August with the models developing two CV systems in that period. To answer your question stormclouds63 yeah I still personally think that will be the case, I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't get at least one strong Caribbean system but the mean track for the next 15-20 days will likely be close to the NE Caribbean and then an enhanced risk for the east coast, but timing is key.

[gatorcane]

The way it looks at this moment could be the season of many strong cv systems that recurve. That would be nice!

Really thinking the Caribbean will breed a few significant systems that will threaten land areas....especially late sept and october.

[HouTXmetro]

I know this can ramp up quick but I'm really shocked that the Atlantic Basin is this quiet in August...we don't even have an invest besides the homegrown EX TD-5. From a Hurricane enthusiast standpoint, very dissappointing season so far. I know things will likely pick up but it seems as if we keep moving the goal post back each week.

As far as my region (TX Coast), I hope some strong fronts will come in an usher in an early fall and cooler weather like in 2004 when Charley was turned back. Usually the season ends for us in mid-late September so the we have about 30 days left for our Hurricane season.

[StormClouds63]

I know this can ramp up quick but I'm really shocked that the Atlantic Basin is this quiet in August...we don't even have an invest besides the homegrown EX TD-5. From a Hurricane enthusiast standpoint, very dissappointing season so far. I know things will likely pick up but it seems as if we keep moving the goal post back each week.

As far as my region (TX Coast), I hope some strong fronts will come in an usher in an early fall and cooler weather like in 2004 when Charley was turned back. Usually the season ends for us in mid-late September so the we have about 30 days left for our Hurricane season.

This year it could be as late as early to mid October if I understand LaNina effect. You're right about 2004 ... the cool fronts were already pushing through the Gulf Coast in mid-August, with cooler temperatures at night ... I think we'll have a much longer wait in 2010.

I agree ... it's surprising how quiet the Atlantic basin remains. A promising wave emerging off Africa and the remnants of TD-5 ... we're sort of grasping at straws, but there's nothing else out there to track ... and we're past the halfway point of August. That CV system, however, looks pretty certain to develop, and though it's likely a fish, maybe it can beat the shear monster and become the season's first major hurricane.

[hurricaneCW]

I think we're looking at a major bust, the Gulf disturbance is very sheared and may not even become a storm. The only thing to look forward to is the African wave, but we've already seen models develop waves that never became anything. I'm pretty sure forecasters are biting their fingernails and hoping to see something soon.

[Portastorm]

I doubt it. Forecasters know this is a La Nina year which means slow start and active finish. How many times do we have to debate this, ad nauseum?!

I think we're looking at a major bust, the Gulf disturbance is very sheared and may not even become a storm. The only thing to look forward to is the African wave, but we've already seen models develop waves that never became anything. I'm pretty sure forecasters are biting their fingernails and hoping to see something soon.

[KWT]

Because people nowdays live in the now and only in the now I think Portastorm, its the idea that if its not good now then it never can be. FWIW the actual conditions have improved alot in the last 7 days, the TUTT is much weaker, the Atlantic is far more moist, there is still some SAL but then agsain 2005 had that as well...

IMO its still not quite there yet but the models are picking up on development for a very good reason...

By the way, the CFS and the ECM long range goes pretty hyper in September through October, probably 9-11NS on both of those models in a 50 day period from what I've heard about from the ECM and seen what the CFS has been suggesting.

[HouTXmetro]

I understand the late starts....it's a glass half empty/full thing. Most of the storms that do form will probably be fish. Of course that's a good thing albeit boring..lol. But we enjoy tracking these things.

[SoupBone]

The current SAL looks pretty hefty ATM when last week it looked to be subsiding. Thought?

[tolakram]

That's nothing, only moderate at best. Pink is hefty.

[SoupBone]

That's nothing, only moderate at best. Pink is hefty.

I see the scale but last week there was hardly any color out there at all. I guess I'm saying hefty relative to what I saw last week.

[Sihara]

I guess it's just my wishful thinking, but is there any chance the current "active cycle" is starting to wind down? These cycles aren't always the same length, so I was just idly hoping....

Yeah it's farfetched, but not as much as something I heard on tv while changing channels. Something about the color of oceans (?) and hurricanes, didn't hear the whole thing.

I do believe it's a bit premature to write the season off, and it's never a good idea to drop your guard if you're in a coastal area, regardless of how quiet a season seems. I think I recall a season back in the 90's when, well it seemed like a quiet season, and the A storm didn't even happen till the latter half of August. Around the 24th IIRC.