ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying all this model speak on a MS AL landfall just yet, looks like the center may be reforming to the south and west based on sat pics and looking at that rainbow loop...very interesting situation....my pro met in Austin always says, "gulf systems can highly unpredictable at times!"

It would have to sit down there for a good while to go toward TX IMO, for the next few days there is no place for it to go but toward the upper Gulf Coast toward the weakness. You got a ridge back over TX and one over GA with a weakness in the middle.

[Aric Dunn]

well recon found some 31kt sfmr well south of the broad/elongated/weak circulation... they may upgrade at 5 just because there is a very good chance it develops. better to do it a little early to give people time to do whatever preparation they deem necessary.

[chzzdekr81]

We'll have to wait another hour to see if it gets upgraded.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Upper low looks to be less and less of a factor.

[ColinDelia]

I remember back in 1982 I left for school in the morning after a depression in the southeastern gulf was upgraded to Alberto. When I got home it was a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

The mid level circ seems a bit better and things could still pull together under the MLC..

[JTE50]

Anyone look into the tornado threat over florida and the northern gulf coast with this. considering its partially still associated with a trough and there is a upper low near by.. some of the more severe weather experts may know..?

excellent point Aric. I like to stake out a day before a storm hits and work the feeder bands for waterspouts.

[Stormcenter]

If you are referring to what I mean when I state that conditions are too "hostile". It basically means to hostile for any significant and or rapid development. It has nothing to do with whether or not it will become a TD or more. I've always thought 94L would become at least a TS. The 70% chance the NHC gives 94L is for it to become an organized tropical system. That has no reflection on how strong it will or will not become. IMO

One poster describes conditions for development as hostile. Somehow, I dont believe the NHC would give a system a 70 % chance of becoming a TC under such conditions. While not ideal, conditions certainly aren't hostile for development.

[N2FSU]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

THe mid level circ is moving northerly atm the moment the surface circ is just not well defined enough and is broad... needs more time .. and convection is declining for the time being but should begin to increase again depending on where that is will likely determine where the center finally consolidates..

[Stormcenter]

It all depends on where you think the center is.

By the way 94L's overall structure continues to improve


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=9

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

From Best Track it has moved WNW so far today, albeit very slowly.

[Frank P]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

Looks to be moving to the north to me also using the Keys radar loops..

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

Looks to be moving to the north to me also using the Keys radar loops..

that's the weakening MLC moving towards the LLC which is moving SW. may be attempting to consolidate and stack.

[StormClouds63]

This is just my personal opinion on 94L and not that of a professional meteorologist:

TD status: Yes
TS strength: Yes (Danielle)
Hurricane: No
Maximum Sustained Winds: 55-60 mph
Landfall: Mississippi Coast

[N2FSU]

ok, thanks for the clarification everybody. I was wondering if that was just the MLC I was seeing.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

Looks to be moving to the north to me also using the Keys radar loops..

that's the weakening MLC moving towards the LLC which is moving SW. may be attempting to consolidate and stack.

I don't see a SW movement.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the visible satellite loop, am I seeing a more northerly movement in the last few frames, or is this an illusion?

Looks to be moving to the north to me also using the Keys radar loops..

that's the weakening MLC moving towards the LLC which is moving SW. may be attempting to consolidate and stack.

yeah it seems the llc maybe trying to reform under the MLC and if convection fires with the MLC then the LLC will consolidate there. we will also likely see a small cyclonic loops as this process unfolds and the LLC may follow the same path as the MLC is taking now which would shift the initialization position tothe NE and the tracks as well

[BigA]

Per the latest vorticity maps, looks like a big area of negative 200mb vorticity (upper level anticyclone) is headed for 94L. My guess is starting tonight, when the ULH gets over it, and the ULL moves away, it will really start coming together.



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The dark blue area is the UL high.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Third heavy rain squall moving through here...lots of heavy rain so far today
and more expected with more squalls developing...