ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[dixiebreeze]

I'd say Intracoastal City, La - Panama City, FL for possible watches/warnings. We'll see!

I would guess Pensacola to Florida Big Bend.

[MGC]

TV met in New Orleans kinda down played it today. Said there was not enough water for the system to cross before landfall for it to intensify much beyound a TS....What? If the ULL pulls away like it looks like it is then this can ramp up quickly.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

TV met in New Orleans kinda down played it today. Said there was not enough water for the system to cross before landfall for it to intensify much beyound a TS....What? If the ULL pulls away like it looks like it is then this can ramp up quickly.....MGC

I agree, once that ULL gets a good bit to the west tomorrow and is weakening the only fly in the ointment I could think of would be the dry air to its north once it gets in the northern Gulf. Still I think a Cat. 1 Hurricane is not out of the realm of a good possibility here!

[Dean4Storms]

If the center is where I think it is the convection is now firing right on top of it!

[Stormcenter]

I believe it has more then enough time over water. We all know these things can ramp
up fairly quickly if conditions become ideal but that has yet to become the case. IMO

TV met in New Orleans kinda down played it today. Said there was not enough water for the system to cross before landfall for it to intensify much beyound a TS....What? If the ULL pulls away like it looks like it is then this can ramp up quickly.....MGC

[brunota2003]

If the center is where I think it is the convection is now firing right on top of it!

I know...watching recon, it looks like it is SW of where we initially thought it was, though it is still most likely really elongated.

[dixiebreeze]

She is looking might good (or bad, depending how you look at it) right now:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

[LAwxrgal]

TV met in New Orleans kinda down played it today. Said there was not enough water for the system to cross before landfall for it to intensify much beyound a TS....What? If the ULL pulls away like it looks like it is then this can ramp up quickly.....MGC

Which met was that? Myers?

[LAwxrgal]

IMO further east this thing goes, the less time it will have to strengthen.

[srainhoutx]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone look into the tornado threat over florida and the northern gulf coast with this. considering its partially still associated with a trough and there is a upper low near by.. some of the more severe weather experts may know..?

[dixiebreeze]

IMO further east this thing goes, the less time it will have to strengthen.

Not if it stalls, like Elena did in '85.

[HouTXmetro]

If the center is where I think it is the convection is now firing right on top of it!

I know...watching recon, it looks like it is SW of where we initially thought it was, though it is still most likely really elongated.

I think it was where NHC initialized however it hase been moving SW towards the deeper convection as some suspected.

[Bailey1777]

question if 94 continues to basically sit how would it effect landfall im taking it that the models are going off of a moving system.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone look into the tornado threat over florida and the northern gulf coast with this. considering its partially still associated with a trough and there is a upper low near by.. some of the more severe weather experts may know..?

I would think the threat increases tomorrow as it gains strength, certainly will expect to see waterspouts in the bands offshore with some much change in direction with height due to that ULL on the northern periphery.

[CourierPR]

One poster describes conditions for development as hostile. Somehow, I dont believe the NHC would give a system a 70 % chance of becoming a TC under such conditions. While not ideal, conditions certainly aren't hostile for development.

[CaneCurious]

TV met in New Orleans kinda down played it today. Said there was not enough water for the system to cross before landfall for it to intensify much beyound a TS....What? If the ULL pulls away like it looks like it is then this can ramp up quickly.....MGC

Which met was that? Myers?

Yes it was Myers! I thought the same thing!

[Dean4Storms]

IMO further east this thing goes, the less time it will have to strengthen.

Not if it stalls, like Elena did in '85.

There are some models that really slow it down as it approaches the coast with weak steering currents, that could allow some ramp up before landfall for sure!

[TexasF6]

I'm not buying all this model speak on a MS AL landfall just yet, looks like the center may be reforming to the south and west based on sat pics and looking at that rainbow loop...very interesting situation....my pro met in Austin always says, "gulf systems can highly unpredictable at times!"

[Aric Dunn]

question if 94 continues to basically sit how would it effect landfall im taking it that the models are going off of a moving system.

well the models are all quick to get this moving. yesterdays runs already had it 100 miles nw of here by now. So each run this gets extended and the trough that is supposed to pick it up and turn it NE late in the runs gets closer and so a possible scenario is that it begins that turn sooner and it makes landfall farther east.