ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[ROCK]

Creeping a hair north of west in my opinion.


Look at this heavy band forming over the Keys:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


.

hard to tell if any movement...just drifting around.....current steering or lack thereof


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[HURAKAN]

619
AGXX40 KNHC 101746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB NEAR 26N83W IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NW INTO MIDDLE GULF TONIGHT AND OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE WED THEN MOVE INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA THU. THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER N
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER AS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
AND PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG N GULF
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND. OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N MAINTAIN E-SE MODERATE WINDS S OF
25N E OF 75W THROUGH WED. THE RIDGE DRIFTS S AND WEAKENS WITH
LIGHT SE WINDS S OF 27N AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS N OF 27N THU. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE
SHIFTS S TO AROUND 25N SUN AS A FRONT/TROUGH MOVES JUST N OF THE
AREA...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. OVER THE FAR NE
PORTION OF THE AREA.

WEAK TROUGH IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W WILL MOVE W THROUGH
FRI AND OUT OF AREA BY SAT. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT
BETWEEN 67W AND 75W SAT AND SUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E
OF THE AREA MOVES THROUGH.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS

[HURAKAN]

728
ABNT20 KNHC 101750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AdamFirst]

70%

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[Ivanhater]

2 Cherries and a lemon..it must be August

[HURAKAN]

center found, no surprise

[brunota2003]

Question is, is it worth of a VDM, and how strong are the strongest winds? The lowest pressure was 1009.

[Aric Dunn]

well there is a closed wind field but I dont believe that is anything more than a sharp wind shift seen on radar and satellite..

[CrazyC83]

Probably TD5 with 25-30 kt winds. I haven't seen any solid evidence yet that it could be Danielle, but Recon may give us a surprise.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody expect a hurricane out of this? Would like to hear your thoughts. Right now I think a moderate to strong T.S is not out of the question since upper-level winds are gradually relaxing and the SSTs are very warm. I don't think any models bring it to hurricane status probably because it is not going to be over water long enough.

[HURAKAN]

Between the Howell Hook and the Pulley Ridge ... lol

[brunota2003]

well there is a closed wind field but I dont believe that is anything more than a sharp wind shift seen on radar and satellite..

That is one helluva wind shift then, considering it shifted 180 degrees from ENE to WSW

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds picked up to near TS force here in heavy downpours.

I just got gusty winds in a squall to 94L's north that moved over Tampa Bay from this.
Sustained winds were 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-38+ mph, gusty to near TS Force
as well. Very Squall-Like...winds went from
calm to gusty for 10 minutes then calm again...a good batch of heavy semi-side-ways rain too.

Just went outside, several palm fronds blown from palm trees.

Marine Weather Statement
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

GMZ830-850-853-101830-
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

THIS STATEMENT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.
TAMPA BAY WATERS.
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM.

AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT.

AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER
25 KNOTS...FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLSBOROUGH BAY TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANATEE REEF...OR FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HILLSBOROUGH BAY TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF TERRA CEIA BAY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS.


WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR...PRODUCING BRIEFLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS. IF AT SEA...GO BELOW DECK UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

[Ikester]

I wonder why there's not 'Lovers Leap' LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does anybody expect a hurricane out of this? Would like to hear your thoughts. Right now I think a moderate to strong T.S is not out of the question since upper-level winds are gradually relaxing and the SSTs are very warm. I don't think any models bring it to hurricane status probably because it is not going to be over water long enough.

i without a doubt think Hurricane. I generally ignore models when they give intensity forecast. The longer it sits there the better the chance a hurricane we will have in a couple days

[Aric Dunn]

well there is a closed wind field but I dont believe that is anything more than a sharp wind shift seen on radar and satellite..

That is one helluva wind shift then, considering it shifted 180 degrees from ENE to WSW

exactly the point ... no true west wind I still believe its just a sharp wind shift..

[HURAKAN]

looks better by the minute

[Air Force Met]

Question is, is it worth of a VDM, and how strong are the strongest winds? The lowest pressure was 1009.

1009? Shocked

Hmmm...it was 1010 during the DMAX at 11AM...and I guessed it would lose 2 Mb due to the DMIN which is at about 5PM...so 1009 is right where it should be...and within my .5 MB margin or error. lol...

I figure there are some 20-25 kt winds in the convection to the south...but given how elongated the center is...it is a guess on whether or not Avila will upgrade this. You could make a case for it either way...but I don't think I would given the winds. I still think it needs to shed a couple of more MB's to get the gradient tightened up enough. That will certainly happen overnight or tomorrow.

[HurrMark]

Does anybody expect a hurricane out of this? Would like to hear your thoughts. Right now I think a moderate to strong T.S is not out of the question since upper-level winds are gradually relaxing and the SSTs are very warm. I don't think any models bring it to hurricane status probably because it is not going to be over water long enough.

Agreed. It isn't 100% tropical, even if it is declared a TC, so it isn't going to intensify rapidly. It is possible...anything is positible...but it simply will probably run out of real estate before it can ramp up. I expect a sloppy 50-60 mph storm somewhere in eastern LA.

[PTrackerLA]

Correct me if I'm wrong but can't you have a depression classified with sustained winds as low as 30mph or even 25mph? If so I don't see how this does not become a depression today and I would expect to see watches/warnings go up this afternoon. I don't think the NHC will drag their feet on this one with it being in the gulf.