ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

BP has suspended all operations in the GOM now back to 94L

Link please.

[MGC]

I think recon will only find a broad area of low pressure...no TD yet......MGC

[supercane]

What does everyone think on Subtropical or tropical? I personally think Tropical...

94L likely will be designated tropical. The PSU cyclone phase diagrams show it to be warm core, albeit shallow in some of the models. The strongest winds and deepest convection are also sufficiently close as to dispense with the subtropical classification.

[JSDS]

Link for BP:
http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/latest/100352974.html

[srainhoutx]

Link for BP:
http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/latest/100352974.html

Thank you!

[cperez1594]

Link for BP:
http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/latest/100352974.html

Thank you!

Thanks partner.

[Ikester]

Some mets in Houston have already written this off to Louisiana...

[jasons2k]

It's a big system, which is not surprising given its frontal origins.

Still, the banding features now present on satellite indicate to me this is now trying to wrap-up. I would expect a TD designation later today or tonight and Danielle tomorrow.

After that, it's still an open book IMO. There is a lot of uncertainty...well I will just quote what I sent out in an email:

Many questions remain about 1) track and influence of the upper low (ULL) and 2) strength of the ridge over the SE US 3) how much further SW will it meander before turning WNW 4) how much dry air will remain over the Gulf, inhibiting development

So the two biggest questions:
1) will it develop?
2) where will it go?

...are still unknowns at this time.

It is looking much better today on satellite with banding now evident in all quadrants. I do expect this to be designated a TD later tonight and probably Danielle tomorrow.

How strong and where are just big IFs right now.........Matagorda to Pensacola should pay close attention...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Definitely wrapping up now with a nice convective burst over the center. Overall convective mass drifting north over the LLC. Dry air is starting to retreat with the ULL juicing up the atmosphere to the north of the center. All systems go. Awaiting the pressure falls and winds ramping up to classify as a TD, probably by tonight.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100716&endTime=-1&duration=3

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Spiral bands developing with 94L.

[dixiebreeze]

I'm a bit concerned about a possible 1985 Elena scenario, when she sat just off shore of the fla. Big Bend area and spun for a whole weekend, giving us the dirty side of the wind and surge.

[DTWright]

Definitely looks as though it is beginning to wrap up . .

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed that up and you can clearly see the sloppy LLC moving SW toward the convection.

[Sanibel]

Winds picked up to near TS force here in heavy downpours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

Rain burst brought the winds down to the surface. Now we are back to 10-15Kts in steady wind-blown rain.

[AdamFirst]

Rain bands beginning to build to the south with more frequency, heading this way. Overall structure beginning to look very good at least on radar.

[Ikester]

The system to me seems to have halted the southwest movement and if anything is due west or a hair north of due west. Anybody?

[Sanibel]

Creeping a hair north of west in my opinion.


Look at this heavy band forming over the Keys:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


.

[ROCK]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed that up and you can clearly see the sloppy LLC moving SW toward the convection.

yep...needs to stack with its MLC, once it does then it should really get going...