The gates of CV season opening up? 12z GFS develops CV wave

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cycloneye
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The gates of CV season opening up? 12z GFS develops CV wave

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:56 pm

The CV season will soon end it's lull as the wave now SE of the CV islands is slowly gaining convection and the GFS at 12z develops it and moves it west towards the islands and then recurve it.I dont have link to GFS because the site is down but if someone has it you may post it here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 12:59 pm

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16W
WITH AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N. THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES
AROUND THE LOW AND IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR FORECAST...
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS AND COMPUTER MODEL GENESIS
FORECASTS. CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W.
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#3 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:05 pm

http://www.eumetsat.de/cgi-bin/imagery/ ... ,v=400,p=0


Image

Image
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:09 pm

Chad that first pic will change around 2:45 PM EDT and it will show incresed convection.
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#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:10 pm

GFS link:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:16 pm

Thanks my friend ameriwx2003 I knew someone would bring it. :)
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:25 pm

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

This is the full disk of africa and shows the organizing wave as well the train behind that looks interesting inside the african conntinent.I think that chad has a password for this pic to all see as you have to register first but FREE in this link below.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html
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#8 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:29 pm

Luis.. Yes it looks like you will be needing to watch that CV wave . The GFS has had a habit also of bringing trofs to far EAST IN THE 7+ DAY time frame. Lets see how this shapes up:):)
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:32 pm

Yes I hope if it develops it goes fishing and not threat the islands but of course there is no guarantee that it may do thatso I and all the members from PR that are at storm2k will be watching for sure.
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#10 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:41 pm

Agree Ameri, can't even talk tracks right now. But the GFS is showing some serious development. Wouldn't think the ridge would totally dissappear. In fact, that model alludes to a dual high. Should get moreinteresting. At least we'll have stuff to track. :D
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 1:45 pm

Yes the first long tracker to follow.
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#12 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:05 pm

Image

Looking nice... Will she hold??? Big ole wave on the East side of Africa as well..
Last edited by chadtm80 on Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:13 pm

Chad you meant in the east side of africa right?Because there is a very interesting wave there.
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#14 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:16 pm

Duh... lol Yes cycloneye.. I was a lil backwards.. lol
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:27 pm

LOL NP chad but seriously that wave at east africa may be the next player after this first one because the global models pick up activity one wave after another in comming weeks.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 7:07 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

Wow the pressure now at 1009 mbs and look at the wave now at pics.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:21 pm

Chad what do you think now looking at the latest pics of the wave?.Looks to me like it is trying to organize.
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#18 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:25 pm

I agree.. Definatly showing signs of orginization already... Cant wait to see what the next serveral hours brings... I hate having to wait so long for the new pics too.. lol
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:28 pm

Yeah those met 7 pics are a tedious waiting but there are 3 hours intervals too in other sources and nasa that has a loop every half an hour.
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#20 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:29 pm

Think they will mention it in the 10:30??? Wouldnt be surprised if they didnt, with it being so far out yet
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