ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[gatorcane]

this is well on its way to depression and likely TS status as it moves slowly WNW. Look for the NHC to increase the chances of development for the next TWO.

[cycloneye]

The real data will come when recon arrives at the area around 1-1:30 PM EDT. It will be very interesting what they will find.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looking at some "stuff" it seems to me that landfall will occur near the Louisiana/Texas border on Friday. I was forecasting previously that it would make landfall on Thursday, due to this 1 day time difference I now believe that 94L will achieve category 1 status before making landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

Why are you thinking the LA/TX border?

The ridging that has been causing the extreme heat across the S.E US should build in causing 94L to move a little further west than the current model guidance.

00z PSU e-WALL steering layers: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_0z/comploop.html

[supercane]

Broad 1010 mb low given surface obs:

[WX5DBZ]

[Aric Dunn]

The real data will come when recon arrives at the area around 1-1:30 PM EDT. It will be very interesting what they will find.

yes... but honestly we have so many surface observations and radar that it could be done without recon. recon however will determine the exact pressure though.

[Air Force Met]

The real data will come when recon arrives at the area around 1-1:30 PM EDT. It will be very interesting what they will find.

Again...I do not see what recon can tell us we don't already know. There are numerous buoys and ships in that part of the Gulf. It's close to radar...and its daytime so we have visibile satellite imagery.

There pressure is 1010 MB...but will probably be around 1008 during the diurnal min (its the DMAX now)...and winds are 15-20 kts. Recon won't find any surprises.

[Air Force Met]

The real data will come when recon arrives at the area around 1-1:30 PM EDT. It will be very interesting what they will find.

yes... but honestly we have so many surface observations and radar that it could be done without recon. recon however will determine the exact pressure though.

I can tell you the exact pressure right now...to within .5 MB...

But...the biggest thing is the winds just aren't here with this system yet. If they upgrade this...then they owe an apology to 93L since the winds north of that LLC are stronger than this one...

[KWT]

Hahaha now wait and see recon find 30-35kts down in the southern convection now you've said that AFM!
But yeah this is in the Gulf therefore the NHC will probably be more likely to upgrade this one sooner rather then later.

Best track looks like a compramise between the elongated LLC and the strong MLC to me...

Gatorcane, I think they go upto 70 or maybe even 80% with this one soon....

[Stormcenter]

94L continues to organize with every new loop.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Aquawind]

I agree entirely AFM.. Skip Recon!

[Aric Dunn]

The real data will come when recon arrives at the area around 1-1:30 PM EDT. It will be very interesting what they will find.

yes... but honestly we have so many surface observations and radar that it could be done without recon. recon however will determine the exact pressure though.

I can tell you the exact pressure right now...to within .5 MB...

But...the biggest thing is the winds just aren't here with this system yet. If they upgrade this...then they owe an apology to 93L since the winds north of that LLC are stronger than this one...

well I agree its not hard to extrapolate pressure with +- some error and I agree its not necessary for recon at this point but they can gather other useful data thats not at the surface which may help in some cases. as for 93L there really was no reason that it should not have a been a TD except they did not want to put out advisories lol... this one on the other hand will likely be upgraded with less of a defined center and winds because of land proximity and the oil problem. THe public can be rather annoying apparently.

[KWT]

94L continues to organize with every new loop.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Convection developing around the LLC at the moment, thats a good sign for development!

[Ikester]

Just looking at the vis, if it develops, the cloud shield has the potential to be big on this....

[Florida1118]

What does everyone think on Subtropical or tropical? I personally think Tropical...

[cperez1594]

BP has suspended all operations in the GOM now back to 94L

[ColinDelia]

No sustained winds over 20kts anywhere.

125 observations from buoys, ships and C-MAN stations within 100 nm of 27N, 83W.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... =A&time=-1

[cycloneye]

Good turning.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing it is a 25 kt TD.

[Aric Dunn]

No sustained winds over 20kts anywhere.

125 observations from buoys, ships and C-MAN stations within 100 nm of 27N, 83W.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... =A&time=-1

its going to take a little time since there is still no well defined center and hence no real pressure falls which means winds will not come up till this happens