ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Sanibel]

The ULL is right on top of the disturbance. Only the disturbance is strong enough to distort the ULL's bottom 1/3rd. My guess is the ULL will inhibit the system.

[tolakram]

The ULL is right on top of the disturbance. Only the disturbance is strong enough to distort the ULL's bottom 1/3rd. My guess is the ULL will inhibit the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Looks to me the ULL is in central Florida.

[vbhoutex]

This thing has my attention, most definitely, since it's forecast to landfall possibly in my back yard in 2 or 3 days.

It popped up pretty suddenly.

I think this one has suddenly got a lot of attention and this board will light up in the next 24hrs...

What is really interesting is the speed of which the ULL is racing westwards at the moment, its really chugging along at the moment. I reckon conditions are going to improve a little sooner then some of the models are expecting given the quick motion to the west of the ULL...the system very soon will start to get some aid from the ULL...

Just looking at the WV loop and what I see is about the same. Looks like the ULL is racing wnw to nw which like you said should help to start outflow to the N. Also looks like two "feeders" trying to set up to the W and NW over the GOM. I think this is going to get more interesting sooner than later.

[Sanibel]

You can see the clouds are entrained to its west which probably indicates potential strength:

[ROCK]

I would watch for a center relo into the heaviest convection...

[KWT]

The ULL is right on top of the disturbance. Only the disturbance is strong enough to distort the ULL's bottom 1/3rd. My guess is the ULL will inhibit the system.

Note though the ULL is racing to the west, its moving at a far quicker rate then 94L and will probably get to the west of 94L some point today...and given the current look that may actually help the system to pull the convection over the exposed circulation to the north.

[LaBreeze]

The ULL is right on top of the disturbance. Only the disturbance is strong enough to distort the ULL's bottom 1/3rd. My guess is the ULL will inhibit the system.

Note though the ULL is racing to the west, its moving at a far quicker rate then 94L and will probably get to the west of 94L some point today...and given the current look that may actually help the system to pull the convection over the exposed circulation to the north.

What would this do to the possible track?

[Aric Dunn]

yes... the always fun and always exciting reformations.. It was expected of course but it does look a little less frontal in nature. has not moved much either..

[TampaFl]

[Aric Dunn]

the semi defined center from late yesterday is back to being broad.... but that will likely change with all the new convection forming.

[Weatherfreak000]

The ULL is right on top of the disturbance. Only the disturbance is strong enough to distort the ULL's bottom 1/3rd. My guess is the ULL will inhibit the system.

Note though the ULL is racing to the west, its moving at a far quicker rate then 94L and will probably get to the west of 94L some point today...and given the current look that may actually help the system to pull the convection over the exposed circulation to the north.

Agreed. The ULL is more likely than not poised to assist future Danielle than hurt it. Unlike the Bonnie/ULL interaction you can definitely see this ULL isn't getting stronger. The ULL will gradually push westward and the land interaction will keep it weak.

Also, the ULL currently is pulling dry air entrusion into the storm, and that is the reason the western side isn't able to build strong convection. You can expect a drastic improvement in the environment as opposed to the ULL inhibiting it.

[ROCK]

yes... the always fun and always exciting reformations.. It was expected of course but it does look a little less frontal in nature. has not moved much either..

Aric...another point is this has been sitting over the LC branch for what 12hrs and not moving....plenty of heat to tap and organize....

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF Update...

DAYS 2/3...

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS REGARDING THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. NEW
TWIST THIS MORNING IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WNW OF THE KEYS.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NERN GULF AND MOVE INLAND
INVOF THE MS DELTA REGION. NAM...ECMWF AND GFS QPFS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
RELATIONSHIP TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND EVENTUAL SURFACE
LOW TRACK. A CONSENSUS ENSEMBLE QPF APPROACH WAS IMPLEMENTED THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE 00Z/ECMWF...
ESPECIALLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEAREST THE TX/LA BORDER BY THE MIDDLE
OF DAY 3. MANUAL GRAPHICS CONCENTRATE THE LARGER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SRN AL/MS. GIVEN
THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN THE GULF...POSTED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 3...WITH EMPHASIS ON
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM TALLAHASSEE TO BILOXI...WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM TPC/NHC FOR
LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.

[KWT]

It was expected of course but it does look a little less frontal in nature. has not moved much either..

Yeah I agree it does look less frontal in nature thanks to the total decay of the frontal boundary overnight. I was a little worried about how this would cope once that occured but today has proved its handling it well. I see no reason why it won't develop now.

[Aric Dunn]

Through surface observations, radar, and satellite. Here is the general broad but LLC that is kind of elongated but convection beginning to fire in and around it. Should only be a matter of time. Since yesterday the overall system besides various center relocation's has moved. its near the best track from yesterday afternoon. As KWT mentioned earlier the upper level will move north of the system which will provide a much more conducive environment over the next 12 hours or so even though things are not that bad right now especially if you compare it to yesterday.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looking at some "stuff" it seems to me that landfall will occur near the Louisiana/Texas border on Friday. I was forecasting previously that it would make landfall on Thursday, due to this 1 day time difference I now believe that 94L will achieve category 1 status before making landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

[Air Force Met]

I would watch for a center relo into the heaviest convection...

Well...there is certainly a good mid level center down there...west of the Keys...so I suspect that will happen. Given how well the LLC looks...I think we will see it move towards the MLC later today.

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch for a center relo into the heaviest convection...

Well...there is certainly a good mid level center down there...west of the Keys...so I suspect that will happen. Given how well the LLC looks...I think we will see it move towards the MLC later today.

I agree its a possibility and would make complete sense, only problem is that none of the obs support it yet and convection seems to building around the weak LLC. It will be interesting to see none the less

[KWT]

Yeah I think thats a good point AFM, the MLC is really rather strong right now looking at radar...of course if the shear eases up from the north the MLC may well end up lifting up towards the LLC so it could go both ways yet.

The overall look though to me is one that looks like its in the process of developing. Could get an upgrade today if certain things come together.

[LaBreeze]

Looking at some "stuff" it seems to me that landfall will occur near the Louisiana/Texas border on Friday. I was forecasting previously that it would make landfall on Thursday, due to this 1 day time difference I now believe that 94L will achieve category 1 status before making landfall along the northern Gulf coast.

Why are you thinking the LA/TX border?