ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

close-up

[dixiebreeze]

Colder tops: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-jsl.html

[ronjon]

ULL is racing off to the west across the central FL peninsula now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Stormcenter]

It still has a ways to go. The dry air is still a problem for it but conditions are improving. IMO

[ColinDelia]

ULL is racing off to the west across the central FL peninsula now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Yeah it's really moving now compared to the past few days

[tolakram]

Radar Loop:

[CaneCurious]

I know all of the pros say that this is going to develop but all my VERY amateur eye is seeing is an elongated mess.

[Aquawind]

I know all of the pros say that this is going to develop but all my VERY amateur eye is seeing is an elongated mess.

Notice the overall rotation..given low shear, high SSTs, and model support this elongated mess has a good chance alright. I am just hoping for some more rain here. It's looks messy now alright but, as you know being a weather fan that can change quickly.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

In my opinion the upper low is clearly moving northwest above 94L, which should, unfortunately, aid in development.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday it was a mess, today it's looking more and more like a tropical cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=3

The more you speed it up, the better it looks!!

[cigtyme]

In the case of Bonnie the ULL hindered any development. Is it a possibility that the ULL in the right location could improve conditions. I mean help with outflow and breathing of the system. I know i do not post often sorry if this post is off base or not the intent of the thread!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

From Miami:

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE REGION INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. REGIONAL SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 03Z INDICATE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS INITIALIZING
PRETTY WELL ON THIS FEATURE . AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

I've been looking at surface observations, and I checked the ASCAT...we will likely have a TD after Recon investigates.

[cperez1594]

[Portastorm]

Sure is a broad area of low pressure, isn't it?!

The visible satellite loops really showcase that feature.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it is coming together this morning for sure. The radar shows what appears to be a CDO forming over what looks to be taking over as the main center there west of Key West. If that continues this could take off today and it looks like it might be now drifting ever so slightly NNW.

[KWT]

From Miami:
I've been looking at surface observations, and I checked the ASCAT...we will likely have a TD after Recon investigates.

Yeah I agree with that, the only thing that may make things more uncertain is the evidence of several small eddies circulating about as well right now, both to the nortnh of the pretty impressive MLC in the northern part of the convective burst.

Radar shows the MLC looking pretty impressive right now!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Sure is a broad area of low pressure, isn't it?!

The visible satellite loops really showcase that feature.

The ASCAT pass from around 03z revealed a well-defined closed surface circulation, you add that up with what I'm seeing on MIMIC-TPW, and surface observations...I would say that Recon will finds a tropical depression when they head out.

[CaneCurious]

I've been looking at surface observations, and I checked the ASCAT...we will likely have a TD after Recon investigates.[/quote]

What time is Recon going out?

[HURAKAN]

I've been looking at surface observations, and I checked the ASCAT...we will likely have a TD after Recon investigates.

What time is Recon going out?[/quote]

leaves at noon, should be there at 2 pom edt