ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[coreyl]

This system looks like its moving wsw not wnw? Hmmm

[tailgater]

Radar shows a relocation? just north of the red echo on this radar. on the western edge of this radar site. Might just be a midlevel Circ. this far out.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[ravyrn]

Hmmm, looking at the doppler @ weather.com, there seems to be two circulations. A weaker circulation slightly northeast of Key West, and a much deeper circulation slightly west of Dry Tortugas moving SW. It seems to have moved around 10 miles in the last hour which I find rather alarming.

EDIT: Nevermind I determined that weaker circulation was my eyes playing tricks on me.

[ravyrn]

Radar shows a relocation? just north of the red echo on this radar. on the western edge of this radar site. Might just be a midlevel Circ. this far out.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Yeah I noticed the same thing. That's one mean circulation! Even if it is a mlc I would imagine the llc would have to find its way to it. If you sue the radar @ weather.com, it will give you a better perspective. The quality is a bit more clear.

[tailgater]

Radar shows a relocation? just north of the red echo on this radar. on the western edge of this radar site. Might just be a midlevel Circ. this far out.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Yeah I noticed the same thing. I'm quite the novice though. Could someone more savvy chime in regarding these two separate circulations? As strong as the one near Dry Tortugas is, based upon my personal opinion, even if thats not a llc, one would likely have to relocate there or in that direction.

Yes it probably will relocate if the deeper convection continues over there. surface obs still show the center father to the north and east ATTM.
Here's a great view of the ULL moving westward. Caution dial up users.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[Frank P]

Viewing the long range radar loop out of the Keys sure hints of 94L starting to moving off to the west or WNW...

[ColinDelia]

Merida, MX (yucutan) 1011 mb
Key West 1010 mb

A broad low currently

[bob rulz]

I'm surprised this is only at 50%, this has the look of a rapidly developing system. I would put the percentage closer to 70%.

[KWT]

Hmmm it looks like its getting there bit by bit.

Whats interesting to note is thye frontal boundary is all but gone now so we are now seeing the system convective on its own more or less.

Feeling quite optimistic of development in the next 24hrs...recon will be most interesting!

[WeatherGuesser]

Viewing the long range radar loop out of the Keys sure hints of 94L starting to moving off to the west or WNW...

Looks almost due west to me.

[KWT]

Hmmm until we get Vis.imagery I'm going to hold off trying to make a guess where its heading.

Still if I had to make a guess, yeah a slow westerly motion may not be a bad call.

[AJC3]

I'm surprised this is only at 50%, this has the look of a rapidly developing system. I would put the percentage closer to 70%.

Nah, 50% is about right. There's only the one decent convective band to the south of the center, the 3-hour pressure falls in that area are less than 2MB, and it still isn't well-aligned with the large mid level low to it's E-NE.

[ravyrn]

I've been watching the radar over the last three hours. I'm by no means seasoned at observing tropical systems, but despite my personal doubts, I think there's been two to three circulations waxing and waning between the area of Dry Tortugas and Key West. 3 hrs ago I thought there was a weak circ NE of Key West and a stronger one just west of Dry Tortugas. Then I second guessed myself and thought the one west of Dry Tortugas only. Now it is looking like there is one west of Dry Tortugas and another to the east, between Dry Tortugas and Key West. All these observations are based solely upon radar and of my personal opinion, but could anyone chime in as to what I have been seeing? I'm sure at least one of my observations are certain, but are all of them? Or are some of them my eyes playing tricks on me?

[KWT]

I'm surprised this is only at 50%, this has the look of a rapidly developing system. I would put the percentage closer to 70%.

Nah, 50% is about right. There's only the one decent convective band to the south of the center, the 3-hour pressure falls in that area are less than 2MB, and it still isn't well-aligned with the large mid level low to it's E-NE.

Yeah I agree, 50% sounds about right still from what I'm seeing, of course recon could fly into the system later and find enough to justify an upgrade, we will just have to wait and see..

[wxman57]

Seems to have a clear shot to move NW right into the mid Gulf coast. Nothing to indicate it's coming west to Texas, regardless of where it consolidates near SW Florida. I'm fairly confident this will become a TS in the next 24-36hrs.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looking at it on SPC, the rain all seems to be to the south, not much at all to the north.

[KWT]

Wxman57, what do you think in terms of possible strength at landfall given its going to have at least another 2-3 days over water?

[Nimbus]

That ULL is definitely rolling west keeping 94L under shear. The ULL is forecast to weaken which will give an opportunity for the surface low to develop. The surface pressure near Polaski shoals is down to 1009 MB so it looks like 94L has drifted south a little overnight. Once that ULL gets west of the LLC it won't be shearing the convection south any longer.

[KWT]

Yeah ULL now moving westwards but it looks like its starting to weaken already as well, there isn't really much of a southerly dig to the drier air that there was yesterday.

[mpic]

There have been quite a few references to Alicia in this thread. That was my first hurricane and although it was small, we had quite a bit of damage and were without power for over a week here. Shows me that all storms need to be watched no matter the size. Much thanks to Storm2K!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that Alicia formed a little farther west of this storm.