ERIKA is organizing quickly

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:04 pm

The inner core is very solid and this system can easily be a hurricane by tommorow morning.All interests in south Texas and north Mexico can expect watches as early as late tonight or tommorow morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:08 pm

It sure can...another sleepless night for you guys? Unfortunately I can't stay up all night...and even if I was allowed to, I wouldn't because I just came home from a 2 hr football practice! :o

But, HERE WE GO!!!

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:32 pm

Luis the Satellite presentation is really starting to look more organized by the hour,Like you said the inner core looking better. This is going to be interesting:):)

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:34 pm

We may wake up with HURRICANE ERIKA.

Lindaloo · #5 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:39 pm

i feel for the people in her path. hopefully it will not gain much strength.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 pm

I hope that track is not similar to Claudette but I think it will be making landfall south of Port O Connor.Between Brownsville and Corpus Christi I am locked there for landfall.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:51 pm

Why are the strike probabilities the same for LA TX and FL??????????? 20% and there are no 50% ratings..If they are so sure why aren't they showing this??? :roll:

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:58 pm

They want to make the people of those areas aware of the situation but at the same time always those % are low where it is not forecast to track but it increases as it gets closer to the official track.

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:02 pm

The strike probability map is very misleading at times. The probably map is based on the center coming within 65 nm of a given point at any time and are cumulatively added.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml?

Read the information below on the strike plots about
A, B, C, D, E (E is the added total of A thru D)

SF

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:03 pm

Those are probabilities that the center will pass withing 75 miles. Doesn't mean much for FL and LA right now :-)

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:05 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The strike probability map is very misleading at times. The probably map is based on the center coming within 65 nm of a given point at any time and are [d]cumulatively added[/b].

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml?

Read the information below on the strike plots about
A, B, C, D, E (E is the added total of A thru D)

SF

why is it 45% fornow- friday and now-47% for sunday..thats my big issue :o

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:06 pm

Rainband wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The strike probability map is very misleading at times. The probably map is based on the center coming within 65 nm of a given point at any time and are [d]cumulatively added[/b].

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml?

Read the information below on the strike plots about
A, B, C, D, E (E is the added total of A thru D)

SF
why is it 45% fornow- friday and now-47% for sunday..thats my big issue :o

45% chance that Erika will be within 75 miles of that point from now until 2 PM FRI, and a 2% chance (B) from 2 PM FRI to 2 AM SAT --- so the cumulative total is 47% ... misleading, isn't it?

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:13 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The strike probability map is very misleading at times. The probably map is based on the center coming within 65 nm of a given point at any time and are [d]cumulatively added[/b].

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml?

Read the information below on the strike plots about
A, B, C, D, E (E is the added total of A thru D)

SF
why is it 45% fornow- friday and now-47% for sunday..thats my big issue :o

45% chance that Erika will be within 75 miles of that point from now until 2 PM FRI, and a 2% chance (B) from 2 PM FRI to 2 AM SAT --- so the cumulative total is 47% ... misleading, isn't it?

Yes Thanks..thank you thank you!! :wink:

it was bugging me

wow · #14 Postby **wow** » Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:38 pm

Looks like Erika is just beginning a rapid intensification.

"There are no changes in my thinking on this, and I again wish to stress the concern I have about rapid deepening with this. The development as occurred at 26.5, which means the mid level circulation won the battle. A west path is likely till landfall Saturday and odds favor between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. My pressure forecast ( this is to get out the craziness that goes on with the assignment of wind values) is 965- 985 at landfall."

--Bastardi

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

ERIKA is organizing quickly

ERIKA is organizing quickly

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