nice image though.. 
ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
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Aric Dunn
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yep not surprised.. nice image though..
nice image though..
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TwisterFanatic
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Hmmm... think we could have code red next update?
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TeamPlayersBlue
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After looking at a number of different loops, the different graphs and statistics you guys have posted and compounding variable for what i know, i see a TS tomorrow. The negative for this storm is the effect that the ULL, and the bit of dry air that is somewhat wrapped up in the storm.
The positive is that it has somewhat of a circulation and its getting its act together. Seeing much more convection on the southern side of the circulation than the northern side, but i think this has to do with the dry air that was pulled in. Once the dry air dissipates, i think the northern side of the circulation will fire up. TS's with a circulation that has good circulation can fire up into an interesting system very quickly.
This isn't a forecast and shouldnt be treated like one
The positive is that it has somewhat of a circulation and its getting its act together. Seeing much more convection on the southern side of the circulation than the northern side, but i think this has to do with the dry air that was pulled in. Once the dry air dissipates, i think the northern side of the circulation will fire up. TS's with a circulation that has good circulation can fire up into an interesting system very quickly.
This isn't a forecast and shouldnt be treated like one
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
maybe a code red.....the next EURO is going to tell me a lot....because I know what Larry is looking at....and his rational behind his current thinking... 
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cycloneye
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Hmmm... think we could have code red next update?
IMO, with that ASCAT pass,they could bump to 50%.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:TwisterFanatic wrote:Hmmm... think we could have code red next update?
IMO, with that ASCAT pass,they could bump to 50%.
yeah it is likely to go up either at 2 or 8am for sure..
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
IMO this one is well on it's way to being our next storm, banding pattern increasing by the hour on radar. This actually is reminding me of Humberto in that we are seeing the banding develop within radar range during the night. Hopefully nothing more than a TS on the northern GOM. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow!
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:IMO this one is well on it's way to being our next storm, banding pattern increasing by the hour on radar. This actually is reminding me of Humberto in that we are seeing the banding develop within radar range during the night. Hopefully nothing more than a TS on the northern GOM. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow!
Yeah im with you on the Humberto comparison. It's not fully there yet with the complete circulation but it sure is well on its way. Alot of heat content there too with the warm SST, *sigh* could be a long day tomorrow
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:IMO this one is well on it's way to being our next storm, banding pattern increasing by the hour on radar. This actually is reminding me of Humberto in that we are seeing the banding develop within radar range during the night. Hopefully nothing more than a TS on the northern GOM. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow!
it actually is very similar in track and synoptic setup as Claudette last year and we got see that one develop one radar as well
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
It's always the home grown systems that sneak up on you. This one isn't wasting any time. The convection is blossoming near the center on IR imagery. The shades of dry air are pretty evident, but over time they are likely to fade away. The ULL in the Bahamas is slowly moving to the north. I'm wondering if it will enhance rather than suppress the system.
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Aric Dunn
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Re:
tina25 wrote:Is the southern convention going to wrap around the east and eventually make it onshore in the Naples area?
by morning the southern florida peninsula could be getting a lot of rain ...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
right on que.. as the mid level shear is down to nearly nothing as well as upper level shear... the system begins to organize and convection begins to build quite quickly..
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TwisterFanatic
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This thing is trying to ramp up quickly IMHO.
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MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Looks like this system might beat the shear.....tonight based on Key West long range radar, it looks like the system is becoming better organized. If this trend continues would not be surprised if recon tomorrow finds a TD......MGC
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