ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[redfish1]

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forcasted

[Aric Dunn]

yeah radar is becoming increasingly more impressive with convection show some banding features developing.. this is likely due in part to the lack of so many boundaries over florida that were inhibiting the inflow from developing on the east side today.

[wxman57]

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forecasted

That band of clouds extending NW from the disturbance to SE LA gives a good clue as to the steering currents. I don't think it makes much difference where it forms, the winds seem to be blowing toward SE LA. Would be nice if we could get some rain out of it, but I'm not counting on that.

[Portastorm]

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forcasted

Well, earlier in the day we had some posts from folks who suggested that the more vertical and developed this system becomes, the more apt it would be to move further west than what many of the models were showing due to the strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Deep South.

I still don't understand how this system is going to plow into the ridge ... but it is hard to argue with the current model consensus.

[Aric Dunn]

imo i think the models will shift west cause it is a lot further south and west than what was originally forecasted

That band of clouds extending NW from the disturbance to SE LA gives a good clue as to the steering currents. I don't think it makes much difference where it forms, the winds seem to be blowing toward SE LA. Would be nice if we could get some rain out of it, but I'm not counting on that.

this of course is the case atm... but model guidance is becoming slower and slightly more right ... but the general wnw to then NW direction is likely. a weakness in the ridge to the north may become larger as a trough digs south... it all depends on timing.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah radar is becoming increasingly more impressive with convection show some banding features developing.. this is likely due in part to the lack of so many boundaries over florida that were inhibiting the inflow from developing on the east side today.

the basic location as pointed out by wxman57 earlier roughly here ... with radar satellite overlay..

[Ivanhater]

There is a trough that is coming down..notice the models showing it take off to the NE...ridge will break down

[amawea]

This really reminds me of Alicia. She formed on August 15th in the North central Gulf. Actually south of Mobile, Al. This area is much farther south right now but Alicia developed in a similar situation along the west end of a frontal trough.

[Stormcenter]

As of right now if this does develop I'm looking at a N.O. eastward to Panama City landfall. IMO

[Dean4Storms]

Notice the extrapolation on this chart, has it currently moving SW right into that convection.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nvest1.gif

[Portastorm]

FWIW, pro met Larry Cosgrove has some interesting thoughts he posted this evening on his blog:

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m8d9-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-TX-And-Vicinity-Monday-August-9-2010

[Aric Dunn]

Upper level shear is nearly nothing atm but mid level shear which disrupts systems more than upper level is still a tad too strong..

upper level



mid level

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah Larry has been scaring us along the Gulf Coast for weeks now! He did guess it right, or one of the models brought up the idea of a Low forming east of the GA/FLA border and swinging into the GOM.

I'm still curious how this high wont steer it into texas. If it's near ARK/TENN, and its not going anywhere for a while, why wouldnt it swing towards the Tx coast? Am i missing something? I by no means want this storm but we could use the rain

[Aric Dunn]

well the NAM is stronger and to the right this run.... this should be the trend as it looks like it will stay around the southern gulf longer than first thought..

[brunota2003]

The longer it sits in the gulf, the more likely that a trough pushes through and breaks the ridge down, thus allowing the storm to move to the NW, then the N and finally the NNE.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest NWS meso analysis.. as of 10 pm... pretty clear where the low is at..

[hurricaneCW]

It's really starting to pop this evening. One of the most interesting disturbances so far this season. Fun few days ahead of watching and waiting.

[cycloneye]

Low Level Convergence is increasing.

[Sanibel]

Hardly anything here at all. Just some breezy gusts earlier and a few rain showers. Nothing now.


The oil spill operation doesn't need a strengthening system.

[cycloneye]

Bingo! ASCAT pass at 11:15 PM EDT got a well defined circulation.