ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

If the center makes landfall to your east it could make all the difference in the world on rainfall totals and the further east the less rainfall.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

DT, no offense taken. Not anxious one bit, don't think/hopeful it will not amount to much. Have been living down here since '84, so have seen my fair share of storms, strong and weak. Anyway was just curious about the rainfall potential if this was going to be a wet or dry system.

[LSU2001]

You are welcome to it Sabanic. We can't have anything that may disrupt the Tigers practices. LoL.
I do think this system needs to be watched closely. Anything in the gulf in august can spell trouble. Hopefully this will be a sheared mess that landfalls on Wed. with a bit of rain and bit wind with very little damage but I won't be caught unprepared.
Tim

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile NWS Breaking News.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=mob



An area of high pressure...high in the atmosphere over Northern
Alabama/Georgia steers a surface low pressure system west northwest
across the Central Gulf Wednesday. The low is forecast to come ashore
over Southeast Louisiana Thursday morning and weaken by Friday as it
moves inland over the Lower Mississippi River Delta.

Atmospheric conditions and very warm Gulf water temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s are conducive for some slow development of this low
into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone as it approaches the north
central gulf coast.

East to Southeast winds are forecast to increase to 15 to 20
knots and occasionally gusty Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low
passes to the South and West of the marine area. The increase in
in the East/Southeast fetch results in a build in seas to 3 to
5 feet beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Rip
current risk is forecast to increase as well through mid week.

Winds...waves and seas could be locally higher in passing squalls.

If the low strengthens and its track is adjusted Northward and more
to East on later forecasts...then an upward adjustment to winds and
seas will be likely.

Stay tuned for the very latest updates on the low pressure system
moving out into the central Gulf midweek. /10

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That's what i'm talking about Tim. Trust me the tigers have enough problems and don't need any other distractions that may come along.

[LSU2001]

I really don't like that track. It brings the center directly over my house. Not looking forward to a storm no matter how weak.
Tim

[redfish1]

if this was to move where the models are showing wouldnt it have to start moving nw soon?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Mobile NWS Breaking News.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=mob

Dean, what is so breaking news about that?

Same with me Tim. Looks like we could have a wet end of week. Seems like every weekend something screws up my fishing plans.

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile NWS Breaking News.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=mob

Dean, what is so breaking news about that?

I know, but that is their Header they put on it on the Home Page. Maybe they are trying to to join TWC for gotcha headlines!

[hurricaneCW]

How accurate is this map?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If that's true, then the shear is down to about 10 knots which is more than low enough to allow for gradual development. Shear continues to decrease around the area as well, very interesting stuff. Don't forget. Katrina went from a 75 mph Cat 1 to Cat 5 in only a couple of days. I'm not seeing this will end up anything close to that, but it's just a reminder how rapidly a storm can spin up in the gulf in August. A LLC with very high sst's and low wind shear in the gulf can only lead to trouble.

At this time, I"m thinking landfall at 50-55 mph, but a lot can happen in a couple of days.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the loops, the low pressure continues to get better defined.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hear you Dean, it will probably be on ours for the early morning update as well.

[wxman57]

The 25.7N/82.7W position looks good. Not far from that buoy with the 1009.7mb pressure:


PLENTY of obs offshore, so we don't have to do much guessing about what's going on overnight (unless you only have satellite).

A center could just as easily from those obs be about 30-50 miles to the SE of that location you marked within the convection, hard to say. But with the pressures falling you have to wonder if an LLC is taking shape under that convection.

Actually, no. The center is going to be close to the ob with the lowest pressure. If the center was 30-50 miles SE of where the X is, then that buoy with the lowest pressure would have a NE wind not a NW wind.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman , asked this earlier but you must of signed off. Our local mets are talking about this but taking the conservative approach on our forecast until they see if it will develop or not. Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.

[StormTracker]

Most of the models have this hanging around SW Florida for a while..maybe 36 hours before moving toward the central gulf

Hmmm the longer over water the better for it, pretty much as simple as that. From the trends we are seeing I'd think we will see some sort of development in the not too distant future, maybe another 24hrs or so but much depends on that ULL and its movement...

Looking like its going to get a good 3-4 days over water now, so its enough time for this to pull some surprises if it decides to pull itself together...

I'm going to do some digging for similar types of systems in this location that move generally NW towards C/W Gulf.

Ok, I'm gonna put it out there! This looks like the perfect setup to kickoff the 2010 hurricane season that everyone's been waiting for! This thing came way farther south & west than it was predicted to(1), and now that the ULL is bailing out northwestwardly(instead of westward), which will probably help rather than hinder 94L(2)which in turn looks like it will leave the perfect TC-development environment in place with untouched SST's(3)and then to top it off, now most models predict it to hang around SW Florida for the next 24-36 hrs! Not -removed- at all, but IMO, I think we may have our 1st major hurricane of the year in progress!!! I'm just puttin' it out there, but I really hope it doesn't come to fruition!

[Ivanhater]

[Dean4Storms]

Banding beginning to take shape and more and more rotation on this radar from Key West.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

Most of the models have this hanging around SW Florida for a while..maybe 36 hours before moving toward the central gulf

Hmmm the longer over water the better for it, pretty much as simple as that. From the trends we are seeing I'd think we will see some sort of development in the not too distant future, maybe another 24hrs or so but much depends on that ULL and its movement...

Looking like its going to get a good 3-4 days over water now, so its enough time for this to pull some surprises if it decides to pull itself together...

I'm going to do some digging for similar types of systems in this location that move generally NW towards C/W Gulf.

Ok, I'm gonna put it out there! This looks like the perfect setup to kickoff the 2010 hurricane season that everyone's been waiting for! This thing came way farther south than it was predicted(1), and now that the ULL is bailing out northwestwardly(instead of westward), which will probably help rather than hinder 94L(2)which in turn looks like it will leave the perfect TC-development environment in place with untouched SST's(3)and then to top it off, now most models predict it to hang around SW Florida for the next 24-36 hrs! Not -removed- at all, but IMO, I think we may have our 1st major hurricane of the year in progress!!! I'm just puttin' it out there, but I really hope it doesn't come to fruition!

I agree, could be more to it than the models are latching onto at this point.

[JTE50]

WeatherUndground's radar loop is a lot easier on the eyes I think.

[Ikester]

Why hasn't the NHC come out with the 11pm update...or is there one?