ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol

anything is possible and it all depends on how much the upper environment evolves in a more conducive way for the system.. it technically had plenty of time to become a hurricane once it becomes well defined..

I would say if it stays down there into Wed it will get under much better UL conditions and there would be a possibility of it attaining H Status IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol

anything is possible and it all depends on how much the upper environment evolves in a more conducive way for the system.. it technically had plenty of time to become a hurricane once it becomes well defined..

I would say if it stays down there into Wed it will get under much better UL conditions and there would be a possibility of it attaining H Status IMO.

right the GFDL which is fairly slow brings it to a hurricane..

[KWT]

I agree, you can see a rotation on sat. imagery just under the northern edge of the convection and it looks like on radar that convection is coming together in that same spot.

Oh yeah thats about where I'd place it to tighten up as well, though its a bit harder to tell whats going on down there now we've lost Vis imagery. At least the system is close to radar.

[Aric Dunn]

floater is finally up.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Dean4Storms]

Everyting will depend on the track and strengh of the ULL. Personally, I hope the ULL holds together and keeps a good bit of shear over the system. If shear does lessen than 94L could take off in a hurry. It looks to me that the shear will stay up and keep a hold on the system. There is a chance of a TC forming but I believe it will remain weak if one does form.......MGC

According to the GFS 300mb vorticity the ULL moves westward across the northern Gulf to a position just south of LA in 36hrs and is weakening. If this surface low sits down in the general area it is now come 48hrs I think it gets under a ridge and anything goes after that. Alot will depend on how long or how slow this low moves over the next day IMO.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Corrected, meant 48 hrs.

[cycloneye]

Aric,finnally the floater

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,finnally the floater

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yep hehe.. I just posted it..

[cycloneye]

Aric,finnally the floater

[img][/img]

[img][/img]

yep hehe.. I just posted it..

Oh ok,I didnt see your post.

[lrak]

floater is finally up.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I was about to call someone...

After looking at all the floaters the ULL seems to be tracking nw?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gboudx]

After looking at all the floaters the ULL seems to be tracking nw?

Looks due west(maybe hair north) on the floater to me.

[HURAKAN]

Instead of tracking storms, we should start tracking ULL. They seems to be very abundant every year. Maybe do like Europe, that Highs and Lows get names!!

At least it seems 94L will give us something to track.

[HURAKAN]

SHIP
Location: 25.2N 83.2W
08/10/2010 0000 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 20.0 kts
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 °F
Water Temperature: 86.2 °F
Visibility: 5 nm

[wxman57]

The 25.7N/82.7W position looks good. Not far from that buoy with the 1009.7mb pressure:



PLENTY of obs offshore, so we don't have to do much guessing about what's going on overnight (unless you only have satellite).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, our local mets are talking about this but taking the conservative approach on our forecast until they see if it will develop or not. Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.

[Dean4Storms]

The 25.7N/82.7W position looks good. Not far from that buoy with the 1009.7mb pressure:


PLENTY of obs offshore, so we don't have to do much guessing about what's going on overnight (unless you only have satellite).

A center could just as easily from those obs be about 30-50 miles to the SE of that location you marked within the convection, hard to say. But with the pressures falling you have to wonder if an LLC is taking shape under that convection.

[DTWright]

Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.

Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,

[Dean4Storms]

I don't mean to sound any alarm with this and this is my opinion and not anything official and you should get official information for all your information!

But, the CMC, the NAM and some other models are slowing landfall way down with the NAM on Friday and the CMC now showing a Saturday landfall. If this turns out to be the case the ULL will be out of the picture and a fairly substantial ridge taking its place, with the very warm SST's and a ridge overhead we could be dealing with something more substantial. Lets hope a Wed or early Thur landfall takes place otherwise I think we are dealing with a borderline Hurricane! Just my opinion, but remove the ULL and replace it with a ridge in August over a tropical low in the Gulf spells trouble!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.

Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,

I realize it is to early to know for sure how strong it will eventually be and exactly where it will make landfall, just playing the odds and going by what models are currently projecting as well as strength. Most are showing minimal TS with landfall around SE LA.

[DTWright]

Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.

Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,

I realize it is to early to know for sure how strong it will eventually be and exactly where it will make landfall, just playing the odds and going by what models are currently projecting as well as strength. Most are showing minimal TS with landfall around SE LA.

No harm done, and no flame intended in any way. Very well make LF in SELA, but could also make LF in P'Cola. Few days of anxiously watching lie ahead I believe.