What is the future of this season?

[ConvergenceZone]

We'll try and keep this thread alive so that we can update it as systems develop....
While I don't THINK it's going to be a hyper-active season, there's still time for me to
be wrong, which I very well may be....I think we will know what side is closer to being
right by the end of August for sure.....

[hurricaneCW]

How did the global activity in 1998 or 1999 correlate with this year's very low global ACE? If it's similar than the match between 1998 and this year would be pretty similar. Still, that would mean we would only see 12-15 storms and that's well below the seasonal forecasts. I believe 1999 had 12 storms but a few strong long trackers brought in a very high ACE.

[KWT]

1998 at the moment is a VERY good match I believe at least for the N.Hemisphere...the WPAC had only gotten something like 2-3 systems at this point and the Atlantic was also as slow....but interestingly the EPAC was Very busy in July...much like it was this June in fact...and TD2E failed to beocme a TS like it did this year as well

1998:
Atlantic: 1/0/0
EPAC: 6/3/3
WPAC: 3/1/1
NIO: 2/2/1

2010:
Atlantic: 3/1/0
EPAC: 5/2/2
WPAC: 4/2/0
NIO: 3/2/1

So as you can see 1998 isn't really that much different to 2010 at this point, 2010 has more storms but 1998 has slightly more majors.

[HURAKAN]

We use so many "bear" pictures, I think this is more or less where we are.

[KWT]

I'm agreeing that we're looking at our peak activity perhaps even in October, and a major hurricane even in November might be possible this year.

Whilst I don't think the peak will be quite that late, some seasons have seen October be the peak...heck 2005 saw October be the peak of the season in terms of NS (7!!!)

Anyway this season will see some late activity and will go beyond September...

I've been doing some research into seasons that are -0.5C at ASO and the stats are pretty impressive.

1: Every single season, even the 70s seasons had at least 1 storm during October/November...most had more then that.

2: 16 out of the 19 La Nina seasons since 1950 had hurricanes during that period

3: 11 out of 19 had a Major hurricane

Out of the warm AMO seasons that were La Nina you get even more impressive stats:

1: All had a NS

2: All had a hurricane

3: 9 out of 11 had Major Hurricanes...

Now out of the seasons this is how they rate from October 1st...I didn't include storms like Opal, Keith, etc that strengthend into majors in October but formed before October, note I've changed the font blue for cold AMO phase seasons:

1950: 6/4/3
1954: 3/2/1
1955: 2/1/1
1956: 2/1/1
1962: 1/1/1
1964: 2/1/1
1970: 2/2/0
1971: 2/0/0
1973: 2/1/0
1974: 1/0/0
1975: 2/0/0
1976: 1/1/0
1985: 3/2/1
1988: 2/1/1
1995: 4/2/1
1998: 3/3/1
1999: 4/3/1
2000: 4/1/0
2007: 2/1/0


So odds are very good for a Oct/Nov major hurricane this year, the stats for a Warm AMO/La Nina combo suggests a 81% chance of a major hurricane in the back end of the hurricane season, pretty solid chance!

Now if we look even back into the past with strong events (I won't use anything else simply because I don't trust the data!) we will see a very similar trend...


1909: 2/2/1
1916: 4/2/1
1933: 4/2/1
1942: 4/1/0
1949: 3/1/0

Of course these numbers need to be used with caution, but they add to the idea that a busy back part of the season is not only possible, its probable...

The overall stats then:

24 out of 24 had 1 storm
11 out of 24 had 3 or more storms
21 out of 24 had at least 1 hurricane
14 out of 24 had at least 1 major hurricane.

[JTD]

I think that seasonal forecasts should no longer be issued and that the data should be circulated amongst governmment agencies only for EOC planning purposes. They serve no useful purpose whatseover outside of the meterological academic perspective.

[KWT]

Hmmm the UKMO took that route with thier seasonal forecasts back here in the UK when they had loads of busts...last winter had a 1/7 chance of being cold, it was the 8th coldest in the last 100 years!

[lonelymike]

I think that seasonal forecasts should no longer be issued and that the data should be circulated amongst governmment agencies only for EOC planning purposes. They serve no useful purpose whatseover outside of the meterological academic perspective.

Couldn't agree more. And maybe it would cut down on a lot of the stupid arguements that go back and forth about active vs inactive on this board.

[thetruesms]

I think that seasonal forecasts should no longer be issued and that the data should be circulated amongst governmment agencies only for EOC planning purposes. They serve no useful purpose whatseover outside of the meterological academic perspective.

While I think it would be good since the media and general public clearly don't grasp the difficulty and inherent uncertainty in seasonal hurricane forecasting, it's a complete impossibility. Most of these are issued by public bodies, and are simply a FOIA request away from being in the hands of a more annoyed media. No, it is better to try and work with the media to explain what the forecasts mean, what their limitations are, and hope they report responsibly.

[aerology]

Posted this on the WUWT board, I hope to have data processed ploted and on line by 20th August in suport of the forecasts below:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Richard Holle says:
August 9, 2010 at 1:01 am

I have said it before and I’ll say it again;
That is an effect from the timing of the synod conjunctions with the outer planets, Saturn on March the 22nd 2010, brought in a nice load of heavy rain, tornadoes and flash floods globally.

Now with no other outer planet heliocentric conjunction until they are all clumped together August 20th till September 24th, the additional power inducted into the tropical storm engine has been lacking. Leaving us with just the lunar declinational tidal meridional pulses that brought us Bonnie and Colin as pulses of tropical moisture (that formed off of the center of circulation) with out the ion energy content to drive the peak precipitation that drives them into cat 2 – cat 5 storms.

They (the bigger storms) are waiting till the ionic discharge of the global atmosphere that happens post synod conjunctions, expect the stronger storms to start on the 20th of August 2010, and run to 28th of August, 2010, and start up again September 21st and run through end of the month, with some after thoughts due to continued further discharges, coinciding with the lunar declinational culmination angle peaks, both North and South.

The lack of severe Tropical storms is a combination of effects of the slow solar cycle activity, with the descending culmination angle of the lunar declination, and the outer planets Saturn /Mars this last spring, and Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter, and Venus all clumped into the fall this year.

The huge clumps of strong hurricanes seen in 2005 will not be back as long as the outer planets Neptune and Uranus are drifting apart and progressing into the fall, instead we will be experiencing their effects as more East coast and European snow storms of increased intensity.

Given also that there will be no outer planet assisted forced intrusions of warm moist tropical air masses, during the next several Northern winters, expect cold and blustery to be the norm for a while (about 15 to 20 more years.) You will see your breath, but not feel the CO2?

As soon as I can get back to Phoenix, where I have high speed internet, available programmers and tech support, I will be plotting ACE values by lunar declination, and outer planet synod conjunctions to form a visual format in the search for correlations and to assist in formulation of causation mechanisms.
(Thanks for the laughter I know is coming)
Richard Holle

[lonelymike]

I'd be interested to see any research behind this theory. Looks interesting. No laughter here just at the daily GFS run

[AtlanticWind]

Darn , The synod conjunctions .That explains everything

[Ptarmigan]

I think that seasonal forecasts should no longer be issued and that the data should be circulated amongst governmment agencies only for EOC planning purposes. They serve no useful purpose whatseover outside of the meterological academic perspective.

You got a point right there.

[StormClouds63]

I think that seasonal forecasts should no longer be issued and that the data should be circulated amongst governmment agencies only for EOC planning purposes. They serve no useful purpose whatseover outside of the meterological academic perspective.

Agree with this post ... and with those of ConvergenceZone over the past several weeks. If the next positive phase of the MJO results in no better environmental conditions for tropical development, then what we've seen so far is the long-term scenario for 2010.

Instead of "fish" storms, we've been tracking "minnows" or systems done in by the "shear monster." Above average sea surface temperatures mean virtually nothing when the overall environmental conditions are unfavorable.

I'm willing to "wait and see" over the next few weeks before calling the season a "bust." People need to stay focused and avoid complacency. Worst fear of a season with a slow start like this is for a highly populated city or region to be caught unprepared when the "real thing" does arrive at the doorstep.

[Florida1118]

Hmm...I dont think Alex was a minnow and lets not forget its the 10th. August is really the transition month were we go from bad to good conditions, and we are transitioning. I dont know if some of us are impatient because we havent had multiple majors by the first week of august, but lets not forget September is the peak and August really only has about half a month for good conditions. I also dont think this is a hyperactive season in the making, but I do think this will be yet another active season to add to history.

[KWT]

I think most people on here don't actually realise most La Ninas tend to be late brewers, as I proved in the long list of stats above, they nearly always have hurricanes in October/November and most have a major hurricane as well during that period.

If nothing is getting going before say the 25th then I'll be on board the bust train as well...but I feel confident on what I'm seeing still.

However for now it just strikes me as some people not having enough patience, I mean god what would some of you people have done in 1961 when August had NOTHING...not even a depression...and we ended up in terms of ACE close to the top 5 busiest!

[tolakram]

So low ACE has something to do with Uranus?

[Sanibel]

The ITCZ has really gone flat and dry. If this is a positive MJO shift I'd hate to see the negative phase.

You know what will happen. A no doubter of a cyclone will form and leave no doubts.

[OuterBanker]

To aerology. What?

So I referred to my Fifth Dimension lyrics to see if I could comprehend.

"When the moon is in the seventh house,
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars"

Now I get it

[aerology]

Still in Kansas, it will be a couple more weeks before I can show you data and graphs.

My English setter and beagle just chased a young ground hog up onto my porch, and killed it with team work.

what does that mean for winter?