ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Well it has decreased, you're right, Aric, and its shifting but it's still around 20-25kts over the frontal boundary, which is probably down from 25-30kts, not a huge difference, granted it has really dropped away further north.

Frank, I'd not look for development of the ULL, its the low just to the W of SW Florida is the one to watch, but its a messy set-up.

[Frank2]

There's no question of a circulation center at the surface. Numerous observations in the eastern Gulf and Florida confirm this. But the LLC is broad and lacking convection so far. Good chance it becomes a TD or weak TS before landfall in SE LA on Thursday morning.

Thanks for the update, wxman57 (I've not had the chance to check things today), though as KWT said it's a messy situation, though that feeder band/frontal trough is extensive and in fact extends all the way to AR and beyond...

As the system crossed this area yesterday we did get pounded - at least I did, driving back from the Wal Mart (lol)...

Not much wind, but did it rain (about 3-5 inches in my area)...

The entire area is moving west so as you said perhaps something before it reaches TX...

Frank

[Dean4Storms]

Wondering how much that sea breeze convection now fixing to exit the west coast of FL will aid in moistening the area on the northern periphery of this Low? This might take off tonight as the shear continues to lessen and the dry air to the north gets moistened!

[petit_bois]

Bacause of the proximity to land, fact that surface low is established and shear is expected to relax.. I would have to say 50% or higher on next TWO...maybe higher. I beleive it's going to be TD buy tomprrow night so I guess that means I'm at 100% but what do I know?
Lots of hot water.. slow forward speed... relaxing shear... mid August... hmmm

[Comanche]

TCHP not all that much to write home about either-

[Stormcenter]

This afternoon's HPC's extended outlook comments concerning 94L.

DOWN SOUTH...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
LAND INTERACTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
CIRCULATION.

[HURAKAN]

circulation is clearly evident

[bamajammer4eva]

TCHP not all that much to write home about either-

Not bad according to this image

[Weatherfreak000]

The environment is about to become conducive. I would up the percentages maybe at 8. The ULL looks to be in perfect position to flare convection for this. I'm feeling much better on development chances....given the ULL doesn't bully.

[Nimbus]

The radar echoes have started to fill in s l o w l y between Everglade city and the Keys today. By sunrise we might have a TD at this rate. All it needs is a closed circulation and a more predictable track..

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Its slowly getting better organised but it still looks very frontal to me...

Funnily enough it looks like the formative phase of Dianmu in the WPAC which formed in a very similar set-up with it seemingly stemming from a ULL.

[HURAKAN]

No front attached

[ronjon]

Lowest land based air pressure at Ft Myers at 4 PM. Sarasota was at 29.86.

FT MYERS LGT RAIN 84 77 79 S6 29.85F

[KWT]

Fair enough Hurakan, probably just the old remains in that case, I still think it needs to seperate somewhat from that old frontal boundary, esp given its still quite strong right now and producing widespread convection...however I have seen such development occur, and given its in the Gulf the NHC will be far more keen to upgrade a marginal system.

[bayoubebe]

Quick question: Is the rain we are getting now here in NOLA from this (94L)?

[KWT]

Its part of the same old frontal boundary, so whilst its not from 94L its from the same system is somewhat helping to spark 94L off.

[HURAKAN]

loop

[bayoubebe]

Thanks KWT. Looks like we are in for much rain.

[BigA]

Interesting little eddy coming off the coast in the Everglades City area.