What is the future of this season?

[KWT]

I'm seeing a lot of posts that are claiming the season is a bust at the moment, so I thought rather then litter the entire forum with these sorts of posts, this could be a perfect place to discuss exactly what is happening right now...and what is going to happen in the next few months as well...

I've said for a long time now the season will be like 1998, the main season ramps up from the 15-20th onwards...starting to look like to me it will be more likely between 20-25th BUT we are ahead of 1998 at the moment so it balances itself out. See nothing to go against the idea of a very busy period. Conditions will likely markedly improve in the next 10-15 days...because August is the peak of the TUTT and the SAL is already much decreased. I don't think that TUTT will go totally away and I bet we will see a fair few sheared systems but from the 20th onwards your going to see an increase in hurricane numbers.

As for track, I see 2 main tracks, either into the Caribbean or a recurve pattern...BUT the big thing to note is I bet the ridging will be strong enough for at least 2-3 threats on the US as well, either from the Caribbean or from CV systems.

I think 14-16NS still sounds about right, maybe 15 would be what I'd go for right now, 2007 had a similar profile with reagrds to the TUTT and managed so no reason why this
season with higher SST's can't manage it either.

Now what do you think out there???

[tolakram]

I don't know what to think, only that if we get to the 20th of the month without a significant ramp up then there may be a terrific opportunity to learn something. As I pointed out in the Dr. Gray thread, some of these numbers seem to be making an assumption that not only will La Nina increase activity but that activity will still be at elevated levels that have been observed since 1995 or so. It could very well be that we're back out of the elevated activity pattern back into something more sane. If that's the case then this will be a slightly above average season due to La Nina.

I'm not ready to write off the season till Sept 1st with no significant developments, but I become a real doubter on the 20th.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey KWT, I agree that a new topic for this is great. That way I'm less likely to get yelled out for expressing
my less than robust belief for a super active season... What I'm already seeing is something that happening that I thought
would happen. That is, we are seeing the "blast off" date pushed further and further back. The first posts were thinking
August 15, now I"m starting to hear August 20th and August 25th until it really starts getting going. I'm waiting for
the first "Wait until September" post to come rollin in...

Frank made some good comments to in that while this season is expected to last longer than a normal activity season,
many seasons do end in October and so we don't know if this season's activity will extend beyond October or not....
It just seems like nothing can get going, and it's not like the conditions are "horrible" out there either. It almost
feels like late June or early July the way that the systems are struggling......

[cycloneye]

This is a great thread. I am going to comment about this topic in terms of the ACE factor that for me is the most important aspect of how a season is evaluated,not in terms of the numbers.As of now August 9 the ACE numbers are still below 10 units and that is pitfull considering the forecasts by the experts of a very busy season. I will consider this season a dud one if by September 1rst the ACE numbers dont have over 20 units.Lets see what happens in the next three weeks.

[KWT]

I think it'd be highly unusual for a La Nina season not to get some late season stuff CZ, I can't be sure but I think there may only be 1 or 2 La Nina seasons that haven't had some sort of activity in October. Even in 70s and 80s La Ninas tend to produce at least some sort of late activity so I feel it'd be very unlikely that it finishes early...I mean no more then 5% IMO of that happening based on the stats.

As for your first point, thast maybe just because people aren't reading the pattern correctly...not saying I am but I think I've been pretty much along the lines that *anything* before the 20th is just a bonus in these sorts of seasons. However at the moment I sure can see why people are doubting this season, just doesn't seem quite right I know...but I'm starting to see far more favourable signals, could they bust, sure they could do but we will see!

18NS+ however *is* on the verge of becoming near impossible now...I can just about make a case for it still but nothing in the next 10 days and I think that boat will have sailed.

I'll leave by saying take a look at 1998 and the dates of the storms...its a near identical year globally to that one, the entire N.Hemisphere was just dead till mid August, even more so then this year!

[ConvergenceZone]

Great points KWT, and as I mentioned before, it just seems like
everything is struggling to even get going at all...It seems to be
an uphill climb just to get a tropical depression or minimal storm to develop
from the waves that have been looking like they have potential...

[KWT]

Oh it does feel like that CZ I agree...

However remember that we have FAR more info then what we'd have had even 3-4 years ago, I mean just the percentages we have nowdays adds a whole new dimension to the waiting game.

[thetruesms]

If you recall in the other thread on global ACE being so low this year, Maue linked to a blog post which looks at Atlantic ACE through August 5th, and the season's total ACE. If you notice, many of the 150+ ACE seasons have something in common with 2010 . . .



Now, let's also not jump overboard, there are also many seasons with little early season ACE that turn out to be not so active. The important thing to note, though, is that there is not yet a strong correlation between the activity we've seen so far and the activity we'll see as a whole. However, we are quickly approaching a point where that will be the case. Also by Maue:



Even here at the 10th, we're climatologically not quite there yet, but a tipping point is quickly approaching.

[SoupBone]

If you recall in the other thread on global ACE being so low this year, Maue linked to a blog post which looks at Atlantic ACE through August 5th, and the season's total ACE. If you notice, many of the 150+ ACE seasons have something in common with 2010 . . .



Now, let's also not jump overboard, there are also many seasons with little early season ACE that turn out to be not so active. The important thing to note, though, is that there is not yet a strong correlation between the activity we've seen so far and the activity we'll see as a whole. However, we are quickly approaching a point where that will be the case. Also by Maue:



Even here at the 10th, we're climatologically not quite there yet, but a tipping point is quickly approaching.

Can you explain the first image to someone with a basic-intermediate level understanding of weather? The graph is kind of small for me to read. Thanks!

[KWT]

Thats a great post there thetruesms, there have been quite a few of the biggest seasons that have had very little upto the 10-15th and only really got going after that date.

1998 is still the one to watch IMO because globally with the weak MJO/La Nina/hot Atlantic paramters being so similar its hard to discount a season like that, and indeed we are decently ahead of that season in every way right now.

That graph shows just what an outlier 2005 really was...though Bertha in 08 really helped out that season...

[tolakram]

Can you explain the first image to someone with a basic-intermediate level understanding of weather? The graph is kind of small for me to read. Thanks!

Click on the words: This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 993x623. above the image to see it in full size.

The green bar is how much Ace till this date, the full gray bar is how much ACE each season ended up with. The point being that many seasons with a short green bar, just like the current season, ended up with a large ACE value by the end of the season.

[thetruesms]

Can you explain the first image to someone with a basic-intermediate level understanding of weather? The graph is kind of small for me to read. Thanks!

The auto-resize does make it rather hard to read - I'd suggest clicking the bar above it to show it at full-size, and it becomes easier to read. What it is, though, is a bar graph for the past 60 seasons, with the Atlantic ACE through August 5th in bright green, and that season's total ACE in dark blue/gray/black/whatever that color is. It shows visually that there is not a strong correlation between early season ACE and total ACE in the Atlantic. That is, large amounts of early season ACE do not necessarily imply a full season of high ACE, nor do small amounts of early ACE necessarily result in a full season with low ACE.

edit - whoops, beaten to the punch.

[cycloneye]

This is a great thread. I am going to comment about this topic in terms of the ACE factor that for me is the most important aspect of how a season is evaluated,not in terms of the numbers.As of now August 9 the ACE numbers are still below 10 units and that is pitfull considering the forecasts by the experts of a very busy season. I will consider this season a dud one if by September 1rst the ACE numbers dont have over 20 units.Lets see what happens in the next three weeks.

I forgot to put the numbers so far in the Atlantic. As I said below 10 units as of August 9.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
Total  9.095

[SoupBone]

Can you explain the first image to someone with a basic-intermediate level understanding of weather? The graph is kind of small for me to read. Thanks!

Click on the words: This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 993x623. above the image to see it in full size.

The green bar is how much Ace till this date, the full gray bar is how much ACE each season ended up with. The point being that many seasons with a short green bar, just like the current season, ended up with a large ACE value by the end of the season.

Can you explain the first image to someone with a basic-intermediate level understanding of weather? The graph is kind of small for me to read. Thanks!

The auto-resize does make it rather hard to read - I'd suggest clicking the bar above it to show it at full-size, and it becomes easier to read. What it is, though, is a bar graph for the past 60 seasons, with the Atlantic ACE through August 5th in bright green, and that season's total ACE in dark blue/gray/black/whatever that color is. It shows visually that there is not a strong correlation between early season ACE and total ACE in the Atlantic. That is, large amounts of early season ACE do not necessarily imply a full season of high ACE, nor do small amounts of early ACE necessarily result in a full season with low ACE.

edit - whoops, beaten to the punch.

I appreciate both explanations. I understand now. Thanks!

[KWT]

Usually the big seasons ramp up between the 15-25th of August in a big way. The BIG exception was 1961...which had an exceptionally slow August (maybe the slowest since 1950, I'm not sure) but then just totally exploded into life in Early September with numerous Major hurricanes.

So 1961 shows even if nothing else happened in August you shouldn't rule a season out...there is good reason why the hurricane season runs till November!

[CrazyC83]

I'm agreeing that we're looking at our peak activity perhaps even in October, and a major hurricane even in November might be possible this year.

[KWT]

Yeah I don't just suspect we will have late season activity, but I expect it. Quite a few of the La Nina's of the past have had some monsters in October/November.

[hurricaneCW]

The future is becoming unclear. I thought 93L might give us Danielle, but that's starting to look increasingly unlikely. My best bet right now is 94L, which can hopefully become a TS in the next few days. If that doesn't happen either, then we're facing some serious season bust potential. We are quickly approaching the second half of August and there's not too much, besides 94L, to talk about.

This isn't just an Atlantic downturn, but a global downturn. It's possible that there are outside circumstances that are responsible for the global inactivity in the past couple of years. Perhaps the sun? If we can't see an active hurricane season when we have a La Nina, the AMO, the record high sst's, and other factors that would allow for a very active hurricane season, then there has to be something else at work here.

I'll wait another 7-10 days to see if anything will change, but with each passing day without tropical activity, the chances of a major seasonal bust increase.

[BigA]

The future is becoming unclear. I thought 93L might give us Danielle, but that's starting to look increasingly unlikely. My best bet right now is 94L, which can hopefully become a TS in the next few days. If that doesn't happen either, then we're facing some serious season bust potential. We are quickly approaching the second half of August and there's not too much, besides 94L, to talk about.

This isn't just an Atlantic downturn, but a global downturn. It's possible that there are outside circumstances that are responsible for the global inactivity in the past couple of years. Perhaps the sun? If we can't see an active hurricane season when we have a La Nina, the AMO, the record high sst's, and other factors that would allow for a very active hurricane season, then there has to be something else at work here.

I'll wait another 7-10 days to see if anything will change, but with each passing day without tropical activity, the chances of a major seasonal bust increase.

I'm getting tired of explaining this, but what is going on right now is NORMAL. Look at the only two other years in the active cycle (1994-present) in which there has been a La Nina stronger than -1.0 during the peak of the hurricane season: 1998 and 1999. In 1998, the second named storm, Bonnie, formed on August 18. In 1999, the second named storm, Bret, formed on August 19 (these are the days they became TDs). Each year, the Atlantic exploded upon these storms' formation.

Thank goodness Storm2k wasn't around back then.

[KWT]

BigA I totally agree with that...people are talking about this season like its already doomed to fail, not remembering seasons like 1950/1998/1999/1961 didn't really come to life in any big way often till the back end of August.

On the opposite side of things it reminds me alot of 2007 which had a TUTT that held the lid on most of the systems except 3 systems, Dean and Felix which tracked far enough south to avoid it and Humberto.

So I can see arguements for both sides of things, but I just can't get out of my head 1961...that season argues that a season should not be ruled out because its slow in even August...I think if this board was about in 1961 with numbers of 1/0/0 on the 1st SEPTEMBER even some hardy people would probably jump on board...but they'd about to face the strongest Gulf hurricane in history just a week later...