ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

I'm about to go into hybernation until something real develops

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Convection is dying out and shear seems to be on the increase. Looks like it's already past its peak as far as intensity.

Shear is conducive for development. Upper level winds are currently just 10 knots. Plus it has an anticyclone. This is in between two upper level lows which would suggest that upper level ridging should balloon in between. This by no means has gone "poof" just because convection waned slightly.

A little too quick to forget for my liking, there is still a high chance that this will become a tropical cyclone, all it needs in reality is a decent convective burst to get classified, the circulation remains in tact, closed, and well-defined.

[hurricaneCW]

I had a feeling this one wouldn't develop and I was right. Danielle is not going to be some weak TS in the open Atlantic.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I had a feeling this one wouldn't develop and I was right. Danielle is not going to be some weak TS in the open Atlantic.

You're writing this off way too quickly. If it wasn't going to develop the NHC would not have a red circle around it.

[hurricaneCW]

I had a feeling this one wouldn't develop and I was right. Danielle is not going to be some weak TS in the open Atlantic.

You're writing this off way too quickly. If it wasn't going to develop the NHC would not have a red circle around it.

They have a red circle because there is a well defined LLC with some convection. The problem is that the environment does not appear to be conducive for any organization. If it was, we would have had a TS by now. The shear and dry air are not going to allow anything to form. I think this one is history. 94L is the only game in town, but even that one looks very uncertain.

[KWT]

I doubt its shear thats the problem right now, though its increasing, I can only imagine the set-up around it is rather stable at the moment, not dry per say but stable.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I had a feeling this one wouldn't develop and I was right. Danielle is not going to be some weak TS in the open Atlantic.

You're writing this off way too quickly. If it wasn't going to develop the NHC would not have a red circle around it.

They have a red circle because there is a well defined LLC with some convection. The problem is that the environment does not appear to be conducive for any organization. If it was, we would have had a TS by now. The shear and dry air are not going to allow anything to form. I think this one is history. 94L is the only game in town, but even that one looks very uncertain.

Shear is not a problem, only about 10 knots. The only problem is the dry stable air it is surrounded by. And if the environment "does not appear conducive" please explain this from the 2:05 PM EDT TWD:
"ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS".

I do admit, this currently is not a tropical cyclone due to the lack of convection, but all these write-offs are very premature.

[Florida1118]

I had a feeling this one wouldn't develop and I was right. Danielle is not going to be some weak TS in the open Atlantic.

You really cant say that a name will be or wont b a major. It just depends. Is it possible you just think this one wont develop because you want your major D name? Im still hopeful this is our 4th NS. Just a little pop of good convection and it should be ready. I agree with Miamihurricanes, we just need some patience. Ill right it off when the NHC does.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TexasF6]

ITS DEAD JIM!!! Pooftastic all the way....I said it would be a naked swirl, and a naked swirl it is.....

[HURAKAN]

93L could be another Danny, 2003. Forming from a tropical wave but very high in latitude

[HURAKAN]

the center is in the dry area to the SW of the convection

[KWT]

Looks like this one is gonna struggle now, can't rule out development as it starts to move away to the north again as systems like this seem to do better when they move northwards I've noticed.

[StormTracker]

Doesn't it have a better chance of moving further west now before heading north now that it's so weak, or are the steering currents that strong that it doesn't matter?

[supercane]

Still looks favorable aloft but hasn't been able to sustain any convection:

[brunota2003]

Looks like it will start pushing into higher shear as it moves westward?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Doesn't it have a better chance of moving further west now before heading north now that it's so weak, or are the steering currents that strong that it doesn't matter?

Not in this case. A strong shortwave trough behind the one that produced 94L will be causing 93L to recurve.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO stays at 70%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS
REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

I'm just a touch surprised they've kept it at 70%, I know the models do still suggest some sort of development and whilst that may yet happen perhaps the best chance may have already gone by....probably will have another shot when its on the recurve pattern...but I'd put the chances probably down at 30% now.

Clearly something isn't right with this, looks like another good call from the models which didn't do alot with this one.

[cycloneye]

I was also surprised by the % staying the same. Maybe they see something favorable in the next couple of days that we are not seeing now.