ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

however the Key west shows a interesting evolution..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/Wrf/

[KWT]

At this point, perhaps a rain-maker, and not much else. Humberto and Edouard scenario unlikely?

Humberto is unlikely, but Edouard wasn't really that strong, the models aren't overly keen but they do suggest something weak developing. I dare say it will be just a rain maker, maybe a TD/low end TS based on the models at the moment.

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF - moderate tropical storm into NO, although pressure is 988 mb at LF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010080912-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Yeah the HWRF hits at 30-35kts, which is pretty similar to what its been showing in its other recent runs.

GFDL doesn't really do anything with it...

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 091851
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC MON AUG 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100809 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100809  1800   100810  0600   100810  1800   100811  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.2N  82.6W   26.1N  83.6W   26.4N  84.7W   26.7N  85.9W
BAMD    26.2N  82.6W   25.4N  83.9W   25.1N  85.2W   25.5N  86.6W
BAMM    26.2N  82.6W   25.8N  83.9W   25.9N  85.3W   26.2N  86.7W
LBAR    26.2N  82.6W   25.7N  83.9W   25.6N  85.6W   25.7N  87.5W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          25KTS          30KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          25KTS          30KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100811  1800   100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.5N  87.1W   29.3N  88.6W   31.0N  88.9W   32.8N  88.3W
BAMD    26.4N  88.2W   28.6N  91.2W   30.9N  93.4W   33.6N  94.2W
BAMM    27.0N  88.1W   29.0N  90.3W   31.1N  91.6W   33.6N  91.7W
LBAR    26.1N  89.6W   27.3N  93.6W   28.9N  96.8W   30.9N  98.6W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          47KTS          51KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          29KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.2N LONCUR =  82.6W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  26.5N LONM12 =  81.9W DIRM12 = 218DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  27.5N LONM24 =  81.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[KWT]

Models are very sluggish with development and only expecting a weak system to develop which is hard to argue against given the current set-up it has to deal with.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing too exciting on the 12z euro

[southerngale]

Nothing too exciting on the 12z euro

What does it show? Or nothing at all?

[Wx_Warrior]

[KWT]

Pretty much the same as all the other models in that respect with a weak low developing.

[Stormcenter]

Well this looks a lot like the Bonnie scenario a few weeks ago though (despite the models) I still think 94L has more potential then she did. I'm not saying anything major but just stronger system then she was. IMO

[Portastorm]

I'm still trying to figure out why model consensus at the moment is northwest into NOLA ... the ridge in the Deep South right now is stout based on what I saw on the CIMSS website. The GFS doesn't erode the ridge much this week which probably explains why it moves this system almost due west and parallels the coastline.

Is the ridge supposed to split or erode this week?

[Dean4Storms]

I'm still trying to figure out why model consensus at the moment is northwest into NOLA ... the ridge in the Deep South right now is stout based on what I saw on the CIMSS website. The GFS doesn't erode the ridge much this week which probably explains why it moves this system almost due west and parallels the coastline.

Is the ridge supposed to split or erode this week?

Best I can tell is the old frontal boundary allowing for a weakness to remain between the ridges, you can clearly see that boundary on the WV imagery which stretches NW from this low. If this was to remain fairly weak it easily just moves laong with the lower level flow, if it deepens more than the models are showing we got another ball game.

[Dean4Storms]

If the GFS is correct it takes our ULL westward across the northern Gulf toward TX during which time it is continually weakening. If our surface low sits that far south and the ULL passes by to its north all the while weakening this could get interesting for the upper Gulf Coast!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Kludge]

[quote="cycloneye"]18z Tropical Models


Seems most all of them have moved west from the 12Z runs. Could this be a trend?

[vbhoutex]

Dean has it right. Since this is still weak it is being steered by lower levels so the ridge is not having as much of an effect on the system. If it gets stronger the ridge in the upper levels would take more control in the steering and it would tend to come further West than currently progged.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam

[Dean4Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]18z Nam

1000mb? That would be a healthy TS!!

And where did that other LOW to the NW at 1004mb come from?

[Portastorm]

Much obliged. Makes sense and explains why I couldn't see that northwest movement in conjunction with the 500mb flow depicted by the GFS. Thanks Dean!

I'm still trying to figure out why model consensus at the moment is northwest into NOLA ... the ridge in the Deep South right now is stout based on what I saw on the CIMSS website. The GFS doesn't erode the ridge much this week which probably explains why it moves this system almost due west and parallels the coastline.

Is the ridge supposed to split or erode this week?

Best I can tell is the old frontal boundary allowing for a weakness to remain between the ridges, you can clearly see that boundary on the WV imagery which stretches NW from this low. If this was to remain fairly weak it easily just moves laong with the lower level flow, if it deepens more than the models are showing we got another ball game.

[KWT]

18z Tropical Models


Seems most all of them have moved west from the 12Z runs. Could this be a trend?

Yeah it sure does look like the models have trended somewhat westwards to me as well, makes sense given its emerged into the Gulf a little faster then the models were expecting (most models had it in the Gulf tomorrow.)