ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Gut feeling says it probably has TS force winds.

If there were a ship around that area would be great.

ASCAT from earlier suggested maximum winds be near 20 knots or so.

[KWT]

Gut feeling says it probably has TS force winds.

Even if it does, it would have to look a lot better to get an upgrade straight to TS, because of the lack of recon.

Oh without a doubt, the NHC tend to be more conservative with systems until they get to about 60W...from what I've seen before anyway!

[cycloneye]

Vorticity increasing.

[Ptarmigan]

If it can wrap the convection completely, based on its structure, Hurricane Danielle is a good possibility (although a "major" hurricane would be quite unlikely).

93L is relatively small, so I think it has a shot at being a hurricane and even a major hurricane.

[hurricaneCW]

Based on some loops, it looks like it's getting sheared. The convection isn't organizing. There's been one tiny convective burst at the center, but it's not really amounting to much. There's no reason to upgrade to a depression at this time.

[KWT]

Ah I'd have to disagree there, if Colin was upgradable in the W.Atlantic, this one certainly is...you just don't want your punt mto badly bust

Anyway its got fairly deep convection, there probably is some shear on it because the convection is a little displaced but its got a fairly strong LLC thats for sure and I think the NHC can't put off upgrading for much longer unless the presentation goes down the pan.

[RL3AO]

Its a tropical cyclone now. Its clearly got a well defined LLC, its got strong convection, and its warm core.

If its within recon range, its TD5/Danielle right now.

[Cryomaniac]

Its got a fairly strong LLC thats for sure and I think the NHC can't put off upgrading for much longer unless the presentation goes down the pan.

I wouldn't rule that out though, given what happen with Colin a couple of times. I do still think we'll see Danielle out of this though.

[KWT]

Its a tropical cyclone now. Its clearly got a well defined LLC, its got strong convection, and its warm core.

If its within recon range, its TD5/Danielle right now.

I have to agree, really its probably more a matter of time, its certainly not the uncertainty of a LLC that is preventing the NHC from upgrading thats for sure!

[Cryomaniac]

Its a tropical cyclone now. Its clearly got a well defined LLC, its got strong convection, and its warm core.

If its within recon range, its TD5/Danielle right now.

I have to agree, really its probably more a matter of time, its certainly not the uncertainty of a LLC that is preventing the NHC from upgrading thats for sure!

I'm guessing it's the lack of surface obs.

[HURAKAN]

If Bonnie and Colin were upgraded, this system looks exactly like them.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

If it weren't for the lack of convection we would have had 05L by now. Let's see if the 00z satellite estimates are a little higher, if they are, 05L will likely be born at 11PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 70%

The wording is a strong one.


ABNT20 KNHC 082332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. REGENERATION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cheezyWXguy]

well convection is getting ready to expand over the center. on avn IR imagery, tiny spots of yellow and maybe even orange are beginning to pop directly over the center. Tonight could be interesting

[hurricaneCW]

Does anyone have a shear forecast for this one for the next 3-5 days?

[KWT]

I'm guessing it's the lack of surface obs.

Its not the circulation thats at issue, there is clearly a well defined LLC with this area, the NHC don't want ti upgrade because they...as per normal in this part of the basin...pretty much want it to be a TS when they upgrade it to TD status.

Lets put it another way, if it was TD5 right now they wouldn't downgrade it in its current state...so why not an upgrade?

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing it's the lack of surface obs.

Its not the circulation thats at issue, there is clearly a well defined LLC with this area, the NHC don't want ti upgrade because they...as per normal in this part of the basin...pretty much want it to be a TS when they upgrade it to TD status.

It's out of recon range and no threat to land so they can be a bit more conservative. Also remember TD's don't go into HURDAT so missing a depression isn't a big issue.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak remains at 1.0.

08/2345 UTC 23.0N 46.3W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[KWT]

I'm guessing Cycloneye the NHC are paying very close attention to Dvorak, thats probably a big part of the reason why they haven't upgraded this one yet.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 231N, 462W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest